Usually, you should not get too cute when making your lineup decisions in Week 1. However, we’ve already been thrown a couple of curveballs by the football gods. Hurricane Irma has postponed the Miami Dolphins-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, and the Ezekiel Elliott saga seems to take a new turn each day. If you’re playing in a standard league here on Fantrax, you must start two running backs. You also have the option to use a third as your Flex. The weekly rankings are more in flux this week than in your typical Week 1. You may have more difficult roster decisions to make than you usually would. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the matchups to determine what to do with many running backs who may be “on the bubble.”
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The New England Patriots begin the defense of their Super Bowl on Thursday night in the season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite their reputation as an upper-echelon defense, Kansas City was very susceptible on the ground last season. The Chiefs ranked in the bottom-10 in yards-per-carry allowed and finished as a bottom-eight run defense in Football Outsiders’ rankings. Given the uncertainty surrounding the usage of the Patriots’ running backs, it may be hard to trust Mike Gillislee. However, the Chiefs are always tough on tight ends, and Tom Brady no longer has his security blanket in Julian Edelman. I see a very run-heavy approach employed by the Patriots on Thursday, and I expect Gillislee to be the primary beneficiary.
[the_ad id=”384″]Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers – Last season, the San Francisco 49ers had the third-worst run defense in NFL history. They have switched to a 4-3 scheme under new Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh. San Francisco also drafted defensive lineman Solomon Thomas and linebacker Reuben Foster in large part due to their ability to stop the run. I don’t think the 49ers’ run defense will be the sieve that it was last season, but Carolina will certainly test them. While rookie sensation Christian McCaffrey is the sexy pick of many fantasy analysts, Jonathan Stewart should not go ignored. Stewart should be in line for the bulk of the rushing attempts and the majority of the work down by the goal line as well. I like Stewart to score a touchdown in this game and put up 12-15 fantasy points.
Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Rob Kelley is not particularly fun to watch. He’s not someone who dazzles with his athletic ability. He’s more like “three yards and a cloud of dust.” That’s not always fun for fantasy owners, but it’s effective. He beat out Samaje Perine in the preseason and will be the go-to back on early downs for a potent Washington offense. The Eagles defense was slightly above average last season, but the matchup should not necessarily be feared. I think Kelley gets a lot of work on Sunday in what should be a very close and competitive game. Rob Kelley’s ceiling is probably not as high as many other running backs, but he should be a productive RB2 in this matchup.
Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Adrian Peterson’s spot here is more narrative-based than matchup-based, but I believe Peterson exceeds expectations this week against his former team. This game is being played on Monday night in front of the whole nation. Peterson told reporters this week he wants to “stick it” to his former team. The only thing that might be scarier than Adrian Peterson running in the open field is Adrian Peterson with a chip on his shoulder running in the open field. I believe that Sean Payton and Drew Brees will do their best to get Peterson into the end zone. The matchup also isn’t as daunting as it seems at first glance. The Vikings gave up over 2,000 total yards to opposing running backs last year, finishing in the middle of the pack in that category. I think Peterson touches the ball a dozen or so times and scores a short touchdown, making him a very viable option in Week 1.
UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans – Leonard Fournette begins his NFL career in a divisional matchup on the road against the Houston Texans. After watching Blake Bortles struggle once again this preseason, the Jaguars will look to feature Fournette as they try to hide Bortles as best they can. The Texans know this, of course, and will certainly line as many defenders as possible to prevent any holes opening up for Fournette. The Jaguars’ offensive line is a question mark, particularly following the retirement of left tackle Branden Albert. I just don’t see Fournette making a lot of big gains in this contest. Given the emotional nature of this game being played in Houston in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, the Texans will be motivated to make a statement in this game and prove to the world that the team and the people in that region are #HoustonStrong. Fournette will see better days, but I expect him to run into a brick wall in Houston on Sunday.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots – The Kansas City Chiefs traded up in this year’s NFL Draft so they could draft Kareem Hunt. Head Coach Andy Reid has been great at evaluating running backs throughout his career. I believe that Reid knows how special Kareem Hunt can be, and I think Hunt is a dark horse pick for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. But he will not set the world on fire in Week 1. Hunt faces the New England Patriots, who relinquished a league-low four rushing touchdowns a season ago. The Patriots are heavily favored in Week 1, which means that rushing opportunities may be few and far between for the rookie. Without knowing how Hunt will be used in the passing game, I’d rather wait a week. He will have plenty of time to shine this season, but Opening Night in Foxboro is neither the time nor place for Kareem Hunt.
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – In Marshawn Lynch’s return to NFL action, he faces a Tennessee Titans defense that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL a season ago. Linebacker Avery Williamson was the best run-stopping linebacker last season, and new safety Jonathan Cyprien graded out as the best safety against the run. The Titans were also one of the worst pass defenses in the league in 2016. Many teams decided to employ a pass-happy game plan against Tennessee and I expect Oakland to do the same. The Titans did give up the third-most yards per reception to opposing running backs, but that does not play to Lynch’s strengths. I think Lynch will struggle to get going in this game, and I think he’s ultimately not worth the risk this week.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Green Bay – Seattle game is one of the most anticipated games of the week, and features a variety of intriguing matchups. One of these matchups will be Ty Montgomery against Bobby Wagner. Wagner is an elite run stopper who will be largely tasked with defending the versatile Montgomery. Ultimately, I think Wagner and the Seahawks’ defense gets the better of the Packers’ rushing attack. Seattle had the third-best rushing defense last year, according to Football Outsiders. The Seahawks also just added defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, which should bolster their already impressive run defense. Seattle also ranked fifth in the passing game against opposing running backs. This is the area where Montgomery usually thrives. I have a tough time buying Ty Montgomery as a viable running back option in this matchup.
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK:
Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – It’s not often that you recommend a running back in standard leagues based solely on his role in the passing game, but that’s where we are with Danny Woodhead. The Baltimore Ravens threw the ball at a higher rate than any other team in the NFL last season. Cincinnati gave up the fourth-most receptions to running back in 2016. Woodhead’s bread and butter is catching the ball out of the backfield. Woodhead eclipsed 1,000 total yards in both 2013 and 2015, his last two healthy seasons. Bengals’ linebacker Vontaze Burfict is suspended for this game, further enhancing Woodhead’s matchup. The Ravens are also a three-point underdog in this game. If the Ravens end up playing catch-up at some point, Woodhead will be even more heavily involved. I see a big game on Sunday from Woodhead, even in standard leagues.
Matt Forte, New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – Matt Forte faces the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. The Bills gave up the third-most rushing yards a season ago, as well as 18 touchdowns, which tied for second-most in the NFL. If the Jets are to have any hope in this game, they will have to rely on the running game. Everyone assumes that Bilal Powell is the Jets’ lead back, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Forte is still listed atop the Jets’ depth chart at running back. He was also in on all 27 snaps during his preseason debut two weeks ago. I see this backfield as basically a 50/50 split. The last time he faced Buffalo, Forte had 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns. If you just lost Jay Ajayi, Jacquizz Rodgers or Darren McFadden due to this week’s developments, Forte should serve as a suitable replacement.