Before we jump into the Week 13 Starts and Sits, a little something to think about… A quarterback playing at an MVP caliber level, a wide receiver emerging as a top three talent in the league, and a running back defying all logic in terms of per touch efficiency… and 10 points scored. The vaunted New Orleans Saints offensive line, which before this game ranked fourth leaguewide according to Football Outsiders, couldn’t handle Demarcus Lawrence and ‘dem Boys. Drew Brees registered the worst statistical performance he’s had in five seasons and the Saints money trio (Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas) only scored a COMBINED 32 fantasy points in Week 13.
There has been a debate about whether or not defenses should matter when predicting fantasy score lines. Performances like these tell us that they certainly can have a marked effect. We’ll keep this in mind as we head into the playoffs.
Week 13 Starts and Sits
Also check out our Week 13 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Start These Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals
Fresh off my suggestion to bench AA-Rod last week against the Vikings last week we can comfortably bring him back into the fold. But before you label this an obvious start, understand that the iconic quarterback has ranked only 17th in FPPG since Week 7. He was the QB21 in Week 12. Despite the recent shortcomings, Rodgers will rebound this week thanks to a lackluster defensive opponent.
The Cardinals are a bottom third unit against the run and will have to bring extra men into the box to stop the Packers from sitting on the ball with a lead. When that happens, Rodgers should have no issues picking apart a defense allowing a top-10 passer rating on average to all opposing QBs this season. Expect a top five performance from a player that has let a lot of fantasy gamers down so far this year in Week 13.
Case Keenum, Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
As a Broncos fan, recommending Case Keenum as a less than obvious start this week has me feeling a bit queasy. Still, I’ll fight through this feeling and provide some insight into the mental gymnastics I used to arrive at this conclusion. Most of it has very little to do with Keenum.
The Bengals, for their part, are an appallingly bad team on defense. So far this season they’ve allowed the third most passing yards and second most rushing yards in the NFL. Their defensive line is responsible for the eighth fewest sacks in the NFL through 12 weeks and with backup Jeff Driskel set to start, they’ll be lacking a signal caller capable of preventing too many three and outs. Due to sheer volume because of the extra possessions, I’d expect both the Broncos’ rushing and passing attacks to click in this one.
For what it’s worth, this could be a big game for Courtland Sutton as well as William Jackson (CIN CB) is more likely to be matched up against move wideout Emmanuel Sanders who travels into the slot on 48% of his routes .
Sit This Quarterback
Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings
There comes a point in time where past sentiment, emotional attachment, and an understanding of basic human physiology collides and becomes clear. Now is that moment, and our collective realization is that Tom Brady is no longer the same player he’s been in years past. Per Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com, PACR is a metric that measures quarterback efficiency by dividing completed passing yards by total air yards (intended yards). Tom Brady’s 2018 aPACR rating (a related metric that also adds in the impact of TDs and INTs), of 0.90, is the second lowest of his career. Less is being asked of him, and the Patriots have a top third run to pass ratio versus the league.
The Minnesota Vikings are also a part of this conversation. The Vikings are the fifth highest scoring defense since Week 7 and allow just 14.9 FPPG to QBs per ESPN. That mark would rank ninth league-wide overall. Even at home with a healthy Rob Gronkowski I expect Brady’s role to be muted as the Patriots try to play keep away from the Vikings star skill players. Find other options if you can.
Start These Running Backs
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Rookie running back Gus Edwards is a player that has burst onto the scene in the last two weeks to devastating effect. With two consecutive 100-yard games already to his name, Edwards should have no problem continuing his streak against the Falcons porous run defense (31st NFL). Edwards is deceptively fast for his 6’1”, 230 lbs frame as he boasts a 78th percentile size-adjusted speed score per PlayerProfiler.com (a mark that weights 40-yd dash times against player weight). His bulk and long speed, enhanced by the benefit of having an offensive line that ranks 13th in adjusted line yards and second in yards gained with power runs so far in 2018, fits perfectly as an inside runner balanced by a mobile QB who can threaten the edges of a defense.
As long as the Ravens stick to the run-focused game plan they’ve switched to in the games with Lamar Jackson at the helm, Edwards should have the workload that can yield major results at his current 5.0-plus YPC average. The Falcons will play their part as well as their defense allows the third most YPC in the NFL.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
The undrafted breakout star has a legitimate shot at being this week’s RB1 when the dust settles. As if winning the starting job from a round three pick in Royce Freemen as essentially a “walk-on” during training camp wasn’t impressive enough, Lindsay is displaying impressive staying power. Through 12 weeks, Lindsay is averaging the 12th most RZ touches, the 10th most breakaway runs, and the eighth most yards per touch in the NFL. Lindsay is the RB11 on the season and averaging the 15th most FPPG among running backs. Since the midpoint of the year, Lindsay has yet to finish outside the top 24 of RB scoring in PPR leagues. We’ve already talked about the sieve that is the Bengals run defense. Roll out Phillip Lindsay as a RB1 this week.
Sit This Running Back
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
Full disclosure… I’ve suggested to sit Nick Chubb twice so far this season. I’m 0-2. One more miss and I’m out on ever mentioning him in a negative light again. But Alas… Process over results, process over results, process over results.
Here it goes. The Houston Texans have an elite level run defense as they have allowed just 3.8 YPC so far in 2018. That ranks fifth in the NFL and isn’t the only impressive statistic associated with their run D. The Texans have allowed the third-fewest rushing scores in the NFL and have allowed exactly zero 100-yard rushing performances this season.
The onus will be on Baker Mayfield to take control of this one through the air. The Texans duo of J.J. Watt and will make that difficult however as Houston’s defensive line has the seventh highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL. Their secondary is a bit more vulnerable however. If the Browns can pass protect, they will choose an easier aerial path to the win in this contest.
Start This Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When in doubt and looking for a receiver to start, rule number one for the 2018 season should be to always target the Tampa Bay defense. Why? Because they are unquestionably one of the worst defensive groups in the league on all three levels. Through 12 weeks of 2018 the Bucs rank last in passing touchdowns allowed with 26 against them so far. They are also not much better when it comes to yards allowed, as they are the sixth-worst team in terms of yards allowed through the air. Through 2018, they’ve also allowed the fourth-most FPPG to the wide receiver position. This is a prime matchup.
Moore’s play also has a lot to do with this recommendation however. Over the past month Moore has seen a steady increase in targets, receiving two, five, eight, and nine respectively. He is beginning to take ahold of Carolina’s No. 1 WR spot. In the last two weeks, Moore has registered double digit FPPG and is beginning to show the elite YAC ability that made him a first round pick. You could do much worse than DJ in Week 13.
David Moore, Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
The second Moore Bros. recommendation of the week comes for many of the same reasons as the first. While the 49ers are a better passing defense than the Bucs by yardage they are still a bottom third unit in terms of TDs allowed through the air. Moore himself has received 13 targets in the last two weeks and seems to have solidified a role opposite Tyler Lockett on the outside for. While the Seahawks offense is a rush based attack, Wilson’s TD rate of 8.1% over the season makes all Seattle WRs a scoring threat in every game. While I expect a big game from Lockett as well, I believe we’ll see the same from Moore as he’ll draw the easier second corner and should see less of CB Richard Sherman than his colleague. He’s a solid desperation WR play this week.
Sit This Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants vs Chicago Bears
Crazy you say? Well… yes. But there is logical reasoning behind my sit OBJ recommendation. It is understood that if you roster OBJ 99.9% of the time you’ll be starting him. I understand that. But this is a week you should expect a quieter game from him and it has everything to do with his opponent. QB Eli Manning has put together a solid four-week stretch of games and has hit 300-plus passing yards multiple times. This hasn’t necessarily resulted in Giants wins but the veteran QB is, at least in terms of fantasy, not at fault for them.
The takeaway from this, however, is that this resurgence has coincided with the Giants facing below average pass rushes recently. Aside from the Eagles (who had their own defensive frailties in their secondary) the Giants haven’t seen anything near what they’ll face this week against the Chicago Bears, who are tied for the sixth-most sacks this season. They will be able to consistently move Eli off his spot and Odell will likely receive plenty of rushed, off target passes. Star safety Eddie Jackson should also spend a lot of the day bracketing OBJ and daring Eli to make a play to his other targets. As the Bears are currently a top third unit by passing yardage against the pass I would expect this to be a tough game for the Giants offense as a whole.
Start This TE
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
With the division 100-percent wide open thanks to Dallas’ win over the Saints this week, this game will play a large role in deciding the final standings. Jordan Reed himself isn’t in a great matchup however, as the Eagles allow the third-least FPPG to the TE position. Still he’s one of the last men standing catching passes in that offense and should benefit from the increased volume he has seen since the Alex Smith injury.
With Colt McCoy behind center, the Redskins aDOT on passes has increased 1.5 yards to 9.6, providing higher value targets to all pass-catchers. Josh Doctson has used this to record some of his biggest games this season and Jordan Reed should do the same, as he should win the battle of intermediate targets against rookie WR Trey Quinn. Over the past month Jordan Reed has quietly been the TE4 in PPR leagues. Trust him one more time this week as he finally seems to be 100% healthy.
Start These Defenses
Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills
Sit These Defenses
Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars
Want a head start on all the fantasy relevant contracts and player situations in one spot? Be sure to check out my Dynasty Composite WR Scores by clicking HERE. My Dynasty Composite RB Scores be found by clicking HERE.
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