Rob Gronkowski used his second 20-plus fantasy point performance of 2017 in Week 12 to vault him back into the overall TE1 spot on the year. Gronkowski is battling Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz for that distinction. It should be quite a battle down the stretch. On the other side of the Week 12 spectrum was Vernon Davis. Davis had a pristine Thanksgiving Day matchup against the New York Giants. We’ve touched on it plenty of times in this space, but the Giants have been the most fruitful matchup in the entire NFL in 2017. Davis naturally went on to catch zero catches for zero yards on one target. Go figure. Davis hopes to get back on the right track this coming Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys, and I believe he has an excellent chance of doing so.
This coming week is the final regular season tune-up before the fantasy playoffs begin in most leagues. Playoff spots hang in the balance, and making the right lineup decisions is of utmost importance. The good news heading into this critical week is that most of the higher-echelon tight ends have pretty good matchups and are fairly obvious starts. If you do not have an option on your roster you are completely comfortable with, matchups may determine who ends up in your starting lineup and who ends up on your bench. With that in mind, let’s dive into the matchups for some of the tight ends who may make or break fantasy teams in Week 13.
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
HUNTER HENRY, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Hunter Henry caught his first touchdown since Week 5 and had his first game with over 25 yards since Week 7 in the Chargers’ Thanksgiving Day victory against the Dallas Cowboys. Henry heads into Week 13 as a low TE1 on the year (TE11 overall) and should improve upon that in his upcoming matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has given up nine touchdowns to tight ends on the season and has allowed a tight end to score in four consecutive games. Cleveland has allowed just 146 receiving yards to tight ends in their last four games, yet has allowed a top-10 tight end in each of those weeks. As we have seen before, tight end fantasy production is much more dependent on scoring touchdowns than any other position. I expect Hunter Henry to get into the end zone in this game, and thus finish Week 13 as a top-10 fantasy tight end.
VERNON DAVIS, WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT DALLAS COWBOYS
As noted earlier, Vernon Davis was a non-factor in Washington’s Thanksgiving victory over the New York Giants. He stayed in to block quite a bit, as Washington’s offensive line has been riddled with injuries in recent weeks. That remains a concern going forward, but Davis should be able to right the ship this coming Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has really struggled to defend tight ends as of late. They have allowed three weekly top-four finishes to opposing tight ends in their last four games. Davis’ Week 12 disappearing act may make owners nervous, but he has been one of the most consistent tight ends this year. Prior to last week, Davis had recorded at least 58 receiving yards in seven of eight contests. He had also finished as a TE1 in three consecutive weeks before Week 12. I expect Vernon Davis to get back to that level of production this coming week. Look for Vernon Davis to be a top-10 tight end in this matchup.
BEN WATSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. DETROIT LIONS
Ben Watson is not, by any means, a safe Week 13 play. He ranks as just a low-end TE2 on the year (TE22 overall) and has not finished any week higher than 10th among tight ends in fantasy points. But for those who are nervous about Jordan Reed or Greg Olsen, Watson may be a serviceable fill-in. Watson and the Baltimore Ravens host the Detroit Lions this week. Detroit has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2017. They have especially struggled lately, giving up 200 receiving yards and three touchdowns over their last three games. Watson has averaged a pedestrian 34.3 yards per game over his last three outings but has finished as a top-20 tight end in two of those three games. Baltimore will have to put up points to keep up with Detroit’s high-scoring offense, so Watson may be in line for an uptick in opportunities. It’s not realistic to expect a top-10 effort out of Ben Watson in Week 13, but he provides a relatively safe floor, which could come in quite handy in the fantasy regular season finale.
UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
KYLE RUDOLPH, MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Kyle Rudolph emerged from Week 12 as the weekly TE2 on the strength of his monster Thanksgiving performance against the Detroit Lions. Rudolph had season-high totals in yardage (63) and touchdowns (2). Ironically enough, Rudolph did his damage on just four targets, his lowest number in that category since Week 4. Rudolph is now the overall TE6 on the year, and his five touchdowns trail only three others at the position. This week Rudolph figures to be in for a bit tougher sledding as he and his Minnesota Viking teammates face the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has been very stingy versus opposing tight ends this season. They’ve allowed just two touchdowns to enemy tight ends in 2017. The Falcons have also not permitted more than 60 yards in any single game to an opponent’s tight ends since Week 4. Rudolph has a pretty safe floor, but I just don’t see him matching his year-to-date output in Week 13. I have Kyle Rudolph outside of my top-10 this week.
TYLER KROFT, CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Tyler Kroft paid off his owners in Week 12, catching a touchdown pass en route to an overall TE10 weekly finish. That also matches his year-to-date ranking among fantasy tight ends. This week he faces a more difficult test when he and the Cincinnati Bengals face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Like most tight ends, Kroft has been largely dependent on matchups this season. Four of his five touchdown catches have come against the Cleveland Browns and the Denver Broncos. Cleveland and Denver have allowed 16 combined touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Kroft’s other touchdown did in fact come against Pittsburgh in their earlier matchup, but expecting a repeat is not very realistic. Pittsburgh has permitted just one other touchdown by a tight end the season. The Steelers’ secondary has been extremely leaky recently, as they have allowed five touchdowns of 50 yards or more over their last three games. I think we see a heavier dose of A.J. Green in this matchup than normal, leaving Kroft to fight for scraps in Cincinnati’s offensive attack. I view Tyler Kroft as nothing more than a low TE2 option in this matchup.
CAMERON BRATE AND O.J. HOWARD, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
I’m old enough to remember when Cameron Brate was a viable starting tight end in fantasy. In all seriousness, it’s easy to forget that Brate was the overall TE4 heading into Week 9. Quarterback Jameis Winston left that game with an injury, and it’s been downhill ever since. It pains me to say this, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has officially derailed the Brate Train. In three and a half games since Fitzpatrick entered the fold, Brate has totaled three catches for 28 scoreless yards. Brate is the overall TE53 since Week 9. That is not a typo. Teammate O.J. Howard has fared somewhat better, managing an overall TE19 finish during that timeframe. Howard has been wildly inconsistent, however. He has had two top-13 finishes with Fitzpatrick under center, but also posted a game with zero fantasy points and a game with negative fantasy points. The pair gets a difficult matchup in Week 13, as Tampa Bay faces the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the entire NFL. Winston’s return to practice provides the duo with a glimmer of hope, but between the uncertainty of Winston’s status and the incredibly difficult matchup, both Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard should be left on fantasy benches in Week 13.
SLEEPER OF THE WEEK:
ADAM SHAHEEN, CHICAGO BEARS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Adam Shaheen provided fantasy owners with just one catch for a single yard in Chicago’s Week 12 blowout loss in Philadelphia. Prior to that game, he had posted consecutive top-20 weekly finishes. That is noteworthy heading into Shaheen’s Week 13 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. Shaheen’s two-week stint as a viable fantasy tight end took place in games that Chicago remained competitive in. Shaheen was not involved last week, as the Bears fell behind early and failed to pose a threat to the Eagles. That scenario is unlikely to repeat itself in Week 13. Chicago is favored in their matchup against the San Francisco 49ers and has an implied Vegas total of 22.5 points, nearly a full touchdown above their season average. In addition, San Francisco has had major problems handling tight ends as the season has progressed. After allowing a total of 107 receiving yards and no touchdowns to enemy tight ends over their first five games, San Francisco has given up a total of 365 receiving yards and six touchdowns over their last six. Based on these factors, I think Adam Shaheen makes for a very intriguing fantasy sleeper at the tight end position in Week 13.