Welcome back! Last time, we discussed fantasy hockey draft strategy for one-year leagues. You can find that article here. This time, we’re diving into dynasty leagues—perfect for the hardcore fantasy poolie who wants to recreate the dynasties of old, like the New York Islanders from 1980-1983, the 1970s Montreal Canadiens, or the Edmonton Oilers from 1984-1990.
Fantasy Hockey Draft Strategy for Dynasty and Keeper Leagues
Building on Fantasy Hockey Draft Strategies for One-Year Leagues
This article will expand on the fantasy hockey draft strategy for one-year leagues and introduce additional strategies for dynasty leagues.
Fantasy Hockey League Scoring System
In our previous article, we discussed points-only and multi-category (multi-cat) fantasy hockey leagues. While I won’t rehash those, it’s important to note the rise of points-based hockey pools, which differ from points-only leagues.
In these leagues, each scoring category holds a point value. For example, in one of the three pools I’m in, where I’ve been the Commissioner for seven years, the scoring system looks like this:
Goals, Assists: 2.5 Fantasy Points (Fpts)
Shots, Hits, Blocks, Penalty Minutes: 0.25 Fpts
Plus/Minus: +0.25/-0.25 Fpts
Power-Play Points: 2 Fpts
Short-Handed Points: 3 Fpts
Wins: 3.5 Fpts
Shutouts: 5 Fpts
Goals Against: -0.25 Fpts
Losses: -0.75 Fpts
Saves: 0.15 Fpts
Goalie Assists: 3 Fpts
Goalie Goals: 10 Fpts
There are countless variations of this scoring system. Some pools add bonus scoring for goalies or defensemen, which can significantly increase their value. Take note of your leagues scoring system.
Pro Tip:
Analyze your league’s scoring system and understand how it affects player values. Don’t just review the top 50 players and call it good—players ranked between 100-250 can make or break rosters. Look at player variability over the last three years, especially outside of the elite players, as year-to-year production can vary widely.
Two Fantasy Hockey Draft Formats for Dynasties
If your league doesn’t use a minor system, this section won’t apply to your upcoming dynasty pool. A minors system is often used to house prospects, with each league setting its parameters for what qualifies as a prospect—usually based on NHL games played and/or age limits. For example, in my league, a prospect is defined as a player with 150 NHL games played or less and under the age of 24. They must also be drafted or signed by an NHL team to be roster-eligible.
Fantasy Hockey Draft – Separate Drafts for Prospects and NHL Players
In this format, prospects are drafted separately from the main NHL player draft. Fantrax identifies a prospect with a green “M” next to their name. In your main player draft, prospects cannot be chosen, which impacts the competitiveness of your pool. All teams will focus on building their main roster, and while strategy variance will exist, it will be limited compared to the chaos-inducing combined format.
Fantasy Hockey Draft – Combined Draft for Prospects and NHL Players
Unleash the chaos! In this format, all players and prospects are fair game at any time, in any round. Roster and minor limits will dictate draft decisions. For example, you can’t overdraft NHL players if they won’t be eligible for your minor slots—you’ll need to draft prospects to fill those spots at some point.
This combined format often leads to teams jumping on blue-chip prospects early. Whatever strategy you choose, stick to it, regardless of what other owners do.
Three Dynasty Strategies for Your Fantasy Hockey Draft
It’s draft day—what do you do? Whatever you decide, don’t “wing it.” That’s a surefire way to derail any chance of success for years to come. Let’s cover three main fantasy hockey draft strategies for dynasties.
Fantasy Hockey Draft Dynasty Strategy #1: Win Now
At first glance, this is the most obvious strategy, yet it’s often underutilized in dynasty drafts. Once you enter the world of dynasties, players over 30 seem to become toxic to own, regardless of their production. For example, in a new dynasty league I joined this summer, Alexander Ovechkin, LW, Washington Capitals, went 174th overall. His average draft position on Fantrax this summer is 65.79 overall, highlighting how players over 30 are treated in dynasty drafts. While Ovechkin is 38 and struggled in the first half of last season, it’s still Ovechkin.
Age Bias:
The age bias is real. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning, was drafted 108th overall in that draft, despite his average draft position on Fantrax being 83.69. At 33, Hedman didn’t slide as much, but if he were 28, he’d have been drafted closer to his average position. The benefit of this strategy is clear—older players provide reliable production, maximizing the value of your middle and late-round picks.
This strategy almost guarantees a playoff spot this year. On paper, you should be one of the favorites to finish first in the regular season and win the inaugural championship. The drawback? Your window to contend is limited. If most of your team is over 30, your roster runs the risk of declining quickly. When this happens, be prepared for a deep rebuild.
To mitigate roster decline and maintain supremacy, you need to be hyper-vigilant, cycling aging players out for younger superstars. Keep in mind that players over 30 will be viewed negatively, making it difficult to receive fair value in trades. Trading during a hot streak or at the trade deadline will help maximize your return, though it may mean trading with your biggest rivals—one of the fun nuances of dynasty leagues.
Fantasy Hockey Draft Dynasty Strategy #2: Build for the Future
This strategy is popular—expect at least 33% of your pool to implement it. You’ll draft with an age ceiling on players, typically around 24 or 25 years old. Some owners may cap their draft picks as low as 22 years of age.
Remember how excited you were to open a present and see that shiny new toy as a child? That’s this strategy. Everyone loves a blue-chip prospect—the next superstar. The goal is to build tomorrow’s dynasty, with most of the players you draft being one, two, three, or more years away from their production ceiling.
Barring a miracle, you won’t make the playoffs in the first year of your pool, and it’s unlikely you’ll make the playoffs in year two. If your players develop properly, by year three, you should be entering contention—for a playoff spot. If this is a money pool (with annual entry fees and cash prizes), accept the reality that you’re donating to other teams for the first three to five years.
The benefit of this strategy is the potential to build a legitimate juggernaut for five or more years if executed correctly—and if the league survives long enough. With several teams vying for the same pool of young players, you’ll need to do extra research into prospects to gain an edge. If your pool drafts prospects separately from established players, competition will be fierce.
Build Extra Value:
An add-on to this strategy is to sprinkle in a few players over 30 years old. These players can be attractive trade assets at the trade deadline, allowing you to acquire more prospects and draft picks in future years. In a 12-team league, even the last pick of the second round is 24th overall—consider the first round of the NHL draft contains 32 picks.
Fantasy Hockey Draft Dynasty Strategy #3: Draft Players Entering Their Prime with a Focus on Winning Now
This strategy strikes a balance between the first two. The goal is to give yourself a chance to win now and in the future, creating a dynasty straight from the draft with a larger window than the “win now” strategy.
This is my preferred strategy. Most of your players should be between 24 and 30 years old. In the dynasty draft I completed last month, my first few picks looked like this:
Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers, age 28
Jason Robertson, LW, Dallas Stars, age 25
Mitch Marner, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs, age 27
Filip Forsberg, LW, Nashville Predators, age 30
J.T. Miller, C/LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks, age 31
Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets, age 29
Travis Konecny, LW/RW, Philadelphia Flyers, age 27
Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings, age 22
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, Buffalo Sabres, age 25
Joseph Woll, G, Toronto Maple Leafs, age 26
The oldest player I drafted was Erik Karlsson, D, Pittsburgh Penguins, age 34, with the 193rd overall pick (19th round).
This is a 10-team league, which helps explain the quality of players available in later rounds.
Main Drawback:
It will limit the strength of your minors. If you stick to your strategy, you’ll miss out on the top 30-50 prospects. You’ll also likely miss out on some of the biggest names in the NHL, as those players are reaching their mid-30s and have mostly been eliminated from fantasy draft consideration (e.g., Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins; Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay Lightning).
No matter which strategy you choose, you need to accept that you will miss out on players who are primary targets of owners utilizing other strategies.
With this strategy, it is almost guaranteed that at some point in your draft, you will watch your queue disappear between two picks. The less homework you do, the bigger of a deal this becomes. Study, put in the time, and rank players.
If you have late-round sleepers or breakout targets, add them to your watch list as well as your queue when you rank them. This extra list can help keep track of specific players. My draft queue is usually 20-30 players deep and ranked in order of priority.
There are nuances to each strategy. If you notice certain players sliding in your draft, you can make an exception and grab the value. For example, Crosby was available in the 10th round of my dynasty draft. His average draft position is 36.75 on Fantrax. He offers incredible value between picks 101 to 110. No matter which strategy you have decided to deploy, don’t overlook this kind of draft value.
If you decide to draft for future domination, you can get a really strong return for Crosby at the trade deadline. While you want to stick to your primary strategy, be willing to make exceptions when incredible value is sitting there, staring at you in the face.
Fantasy Hockey Draft – Goalies
I am not a fan of drafting goalies early in a fantasy hockey draft. Just look at the top 10 goalies over each of the last three seasons—there is barely any overlap. Goalies are voodoo. In 10 starts, the top five goalies will give you six or seven quality starts, while the bottom ten starting goalies will give you four or five quality starts. The difference is small. Even the best goalie is going to have a month where you no longer want to start them. For example, in January, Igor Shesterkin had a horrendous month. In 10 starts, arguably the best goalie in the world posted a record of 4-5-1, with a 3.25 goals against average and a .868 save percentage.
Here’s a great example from last season: Petr Mrazek, G, Chicago Blackhawks, had a 3.07 save percentage and .907 goals against average, while Andrei Vasilevski, G, Tampa Bay Lightning, had a 2.90 save percentage and .900 goals against average. Mrazek will likely go undrafted or in the late rounds, whereas Vasilevski will likely be drafted in the first five rounds.
Later in my draft, I scooped Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, both goalies for the St. Louis Blues. I also scooped Devon Levi, G, Buffalo Sabres. I like owning goalie tandems. Barring an injury, it guarantees me 82 starts from one NHL team. In the event of an injury, I own the goalie that will slide into the starting role. Very few starting goalies start more than 55 games anymore. Even true number-one goalies are seeing 60-40 splits with their backups.
Obviously, goalies like Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars, and Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets, offer a higher likelihood of producing Vezina-caliber stats. Just know that this isn’t guaranteed. Every time someone gives up on Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Florida Panthers, he produces a season worthy of Vezina consideration.
I hedge my bets and pick stable, middle-tier goalies that won’t tank my goalie categories. There’s nothing wrong with taking one of the top-ranked goalies early; just know that you may not get a top-ranked goalie season from them.
Bonus Fantasy Hockey Dynasty Strategy
I’ll leave you with a hardcore fantasy hockey dynasty pool strategy. For this one, you should start at the draft and carry on with as long as you’re in the pool.
Start a Spreadsheet and Create Owner Profiles:
List every team in your league on a spreadsheet. Every trade discussion you have, or comment included on a trade offer received or rejected, add it to your spreadsheet. Create detailed owner profiles by identifying their favorite teams, favorite players, which players or prospects they covet (whether you own them or not), and which players they are bullish or bearish on.
Long-Term Benefits:
Over the long term, this will pay off. You’ll be able to extract extra value in trades by understanding the preferences and tendencies of other owners. Building strong relationships with other owners because you remember details will create favorable trade conditions. For instance, in the past, I’ve acquired certain players for cheap because an owner had given up on them. Knowing another team coveted that player but thought they were untouchable due to their upside, I was able to trade him a couple of months later to the team that coveted him for triple the value.
Why Use a Spreadsheet?
A spreadsheet is not a common strategy. It’s for the hardcore. I don’t use them in all my pools, but they come in handy when in a pool with owners I don’t know personally. I’m a bit obsessive and have a pretty good recall of which owners like which players and how they value players, positions, or types of players. Knowing your pool inside and out will create favorable conditions and little advantages that you can exploit over the years.
Combining Strategies:
If you combine these strategies with the draft strategy article I wrote a couple of weeks ago (here), you should position yourself to have a very strong draft.
If there’s anything you need or want flushed out in more detail or have any specific requests to be discussed, add a comment.
Final Take
Regardless of which strategy you pick, stick to it! And remember, have fun with your draft! Even the best-laid plans will fall victim to poor play, injuries, and unlucky timing. How you adapt will ultimately determine your long-term success.
Thanks for reading. Until next time.
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