Here’s your Fantasy hockey trade analysis of the two trades that took place on Wednesday, June 19. It’s unusual to see trades during the Stanley Cup Finals, especially of this caliber. Unless you’re in a playoff pool, you likely aren’t thinking about Fantasy hockey right now.
The reality is that the NHL playoffs are rolling right into the NHL draft. If the Finals go seven games, game seven will be played on June 25, and the NHL draft will begin on June 28. NHL Free Agency starts on July 1.
In context, we’re less than two weeks away from unrestricted free agency. This is prime trade season.
Here’s my take on the Fantasy hockey trade analysis of the two trades that took place Wednesday and the trickle-down roster effect this could have.
Fantasy Hockey Trade Analysis: New Jersey Devils Receive Jacob Markstrom, G
The Flames tried to get this deal done before the trade deadline. Something happened, the Devils pulled back, and the deal fell apart. It was rumored that Markstrom agreed to waive his no-trade clause to make the deal happen at that time. Four months later, the deal is done.
The Devils finally get a bonafide starting goalie. They’ve wasted several years trying to piece together the net with goalies better suited for a backup role, or just not ready for the NHL.
Markstrom didn’t have the greatest year, to say the least. He was wildly inconsistent, ultimately going 23-23-0-2 with a 2.78 Goals Against Average (GAA) and a .905 Save Percentage (SV%).
He ended the year with a record of 2-8 in his final 10 games. It’s not really a surprise considering he didn’t get traded as expected. Unfortunately, he tanked my Fantasy hockey finals and arguably cost me a championship, but I digress.
He’s close to a plug-and-play goalie. The Devils are a high-powered offensive team that needed a goalie who could make the big save when needed. He should see the lion’s share of starts.
With Jake Allen signed for one more season, Markstrom finds himself in the envious situation of not needing to carry an enormous workload. Allen likely receives one game of every back-to-back set of games all season. He’s a savvy vet that Sheldon Keefe can rely on to give Markstrom added rest and keep him fresh.
There are two things to be put in context. First, Markstrom has only been exceptional in one season. That was 2021-22 with the Flames. Beyond that, he’s been a slightly above-average goalie. He’s only won more than 30 games once in his career and has only had one season with a GAA below 2.50 or an SV% above .920.
With the Devils, he should win more than 30 games. The Devils are the best team he has played behind, on paper. It’s reasonable to expect him to play 55-ish games, collect 30-35 wins, and end up with a 2.50-2.70 GAA and a .910 to .915 SV%. This would be the second-best season of his career, yet they aren’t Vezina-worthy numbers.
It is all about keeping it real around here.
Fantasy Hockey Analysis: Calgary Flames Receive Kevin Bahl, 2025 First-Round Draft Pick
The return isn’t the focal point for Fantasy hockey owners. Bahl is a depth defenseman and doesn’t move the needle. It is unlikely you’ll even consider him as a waiver add mid-season. The pick is nice, but it should be in the 20s next year. Whoever that prospect is, they’re two to three years from the NHL after they’re drafted.
The Flames did what they could with a player who held a no-movement clause and controlled his destination. The Flames also retained $1.875 million in this deal. It was a tough one for Craig Conroy.
For Fantasy owners, it is all about their blue-chip goalie prospect, Dustin Wolf. He dominated the AHL for two seasons, and it became obvious he had nothing left to prove in that league. This made the decision to move Markstrom a little easier.
At 6′, Wolf is not the biggest goalie. In a league that prefers goalies to be 6’3″ or taller, he’s undersized. Regardless, he’s made a statement and forced the Flames’ hand.
Owning Wolf is going to be a game of patience. The Markstrom trade also signals they’re moving into a full rebuild. There were always going to be growing pains with a rookie goalie. On a team that will get worse before it gets better, Wolf likely loses prospect status before he starts putting up meaningful numbers.
Expect Wolf and Daniel Vladar, G, Calgary Flames, to split starts.
The question that remains in Calgary is, who gets traded next? Nazem Kadri, C, just finished the first year of a seven-year contract, but I doubt he chose Calgary expecting a rebuild. They have several players, 28 years of age or older, who may find their names circling in trade rumors throughout the season.
Fantasy Hockey Analysis: Washington Capitals Acquire Pierre-Luc Dubois
It is exceptionally rare for a power forward with three 27-goal, 60-plus-point seasons under their belt to be traded three times by the age of 25. Yet, these are the circumstances Dubois finds himself in.
Dubois feels like a bit of an enigma. He hasn’t really been able to settle and get comfortable with any one team yet.
He requested a trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets, and they obliged, sending him to the Winnipeg Jets. After two seasons, he informed them he did not want to re-sign. The Jets traded him to the Los Angeles Kings, where he signed an eight-year deal worth $8.5 million per season. That lasted one season before Rob Blake (Kings General Manager) traded him to the Capitals. Oddly, Blake also shouldered the blame for Dubois not working out.
That one season with the Kings was a disaster. Dubois never looked comfortable or fully engaged. Sure, there was a good game or two, but it’s not the Dubois we saw in Winnipeg.
Dubois is entering his prime with his fourth team. This could turn out to be absolute robbery for the Capitals. Yet it comes with a lot of ‘ifs.’
From a Fantasy perspective, Dubois remains a 60-70 point threat with 200 shots, 100 penalty minutes, and 100 hit potential. A true multi-cat treasure. The only question is, will we get that, or will we get the 40-point uninterested player the Kings just traded?
The ripple effect here is the Capitals’ goalie situation. It is now Charlie Lindgren’s net, at least to start. Lurking in the shadows is 29-year-old Hunter Shepard, who dominated the AHL this season. Also with the AHL Hershey Bears is 25-year-old Clay Thompson. These two will battle it out in camp for the right to back up Lindgren.
Lindgren doesn’t have the strongest hold on the starting job. Whoever slides in as the backup goalie could steal starts. This is a goalie situation worth watching.
Fantasy Hockey Trade Analysis: Los Angeles Kings Receive Darcy Kuemper, G
The Kings really wanted to move Dubois. That’s the only thing that makes sense. Think about it: they just traded a 25-year-old power forward, that they traded for and signed to an eight-year deal. This was a year ago. The return was a 34-year-old goalie who just lost his starting job in Washington.
Before last season, Kuemper had been solid. His previous five seasons with the Colorado Avalanche and the Arizona Coyotes were quality. The question is, will he bounce back, or was 2023-24 an indication that Kuemper is starting to decline? Time will tell.
By moving Dubois, Quentin Byfield finds himself in line to take over as the Kings’ number two center. This is a big boost to his potential production in 2024-25.
This also frees up $3.25 million in cap space for the Kings. That added flexibility will allow them to fill another hole. Perhaps a top-four defenseman or bring in a top-six forward.
The wild card here is Erik Portillo, a 23-year-old prospect with the Kings affiliate, the Ontario Reign. At 6’6″, Portillo is huge. He’s also coming off a very strong season, his first as a pro. If Kuemper or Rittich falter or suffer an injury, Portillo is waiting in the wings. Portillo is like a 2025-26 option, but you never know, and both Kuemper and Rittich have injury histories.
Back to Kuemper, Rob Blake also stated he expects Kuemper and David Rittich to share the net. It looks like a 50-50 split is the plan, at least to start the season. Good news for deep pools that own Rittich. So-so news for Kuemper. I mean, he’s only played 55 games in a season three times in his career. At best, we should expect a 50-32 split this season.
There’s a very strong chance Kuemper will hit 30 wins with his new club.
With the playoffs winding down and the NHL draft and Free Agency around the corner, there could be more fireworks over the next couple of weeks.
Buckle up!
Thanks for reading.
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