“Rising” and “Falling” does not necessarily mean “good” or “bad” in fantasy. If a player’s average draft position is rising, his value is assumed to have dropped. Conversely, if a player is falling in terms of draft price, then he can be considered a value if his production is projected to out-perform his draft-price. In this week’s NFL Fantasy Stock Watch, we look at how the NFL Draft affected a number of key fantasy football personnel.
All ADPs are based on PPR scoring leagues per fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
Fantasy Stock Watch: C.J. Anderson
Current ADP: Undrafted
Projected ADP: 7.05-9.09
Despite the heat that C.J. Anderson gets from the fantasy football community, the five-year veteran out of the University of California had career-highs last season in both carries (245) and rushing yards (1,007). Anderson played all 16 games in 2017 but only had four touchdowns, which resulted in him finishing as the RB17. While Fantasy Football Calculator does not even have a current ADP for Anderson, that will change very soon as the Panthers signed him on Monday to a one-year deal. Anderson steps firmly into the Jonathan Stewart role of last year, which provided 198 carries, 680 yards and six TDs.
Stewart was 30 last season and Anderson will be 27 this year. While Christian McCaffrey’s role should remain similar to last season, an increase in carries is in store for the second-year pro. That being said, the Panthers will be a run-first team led by Cam Newton, who commands a lot of attention in the run/pass option. Anderson is now a sneaky mid-round pick in redraft leagues for 2018 as he possesses high-end RB2 upside. While his 273 total touches are going to regress, the quality of his opportunities will increase in the Panthers offense. Anderson is now geared-up to be a bonafide sleeper next season. All aboard the C.J. Anderson hype train!
Fantasy Stock Watch: Allen Hurns
Current ADP: 11.07
Projected ADP: 7.07-8.02
If you had Fantasy shares of Dez Bryant last year, you were most likely trying to trade him all season. His inconsistent output combined with the high draft capital used to grab him made for a frustrating 2017 fantasy season for Bryant owners. His season totals of 69 receptions, 838 yards, and six touchdowns were just outside of the WR2 range as he finished as the WR25 overall in .5 PPR leagues.
Now, Allen Hurns steps into the WR1 role for the Cowboys. The 26-year-old Hurns had over 1,000 yards in 2015 on a Jaguars team in which he was the second option. It should be noted that 2015 this was full-blown garbage time Blake Bortles as the Jaguars were often passing while trailing in games. Bortles had 606 passing attempts that season, and Hurns is stepping into a run-first offense led by quarterback Dak Prescott who has never surpassed 500 attempts. However, Hurns’ volume as the number one target should be good enough to compare to Bryants’s 2017 campaign with 8-10 touchdown upside, making him a WR2 in 2018.
Fantasy Stock Watch: Hunter Henry
Current ADP: 6.03
Projected ADP: 4.08-5.03
It truly is a tale of two seasons for Henry. He exceeded expectation even while sharing tight end duties with Antonio Gates, who commanded 93 targets in 2017. Henry was able to provide owners with eight touchdowns. Even though Gates was the first option on this offense, Keenan Allen was not around, making Henry a valuable asset for the Chargers and fantasy teams. Although Gates’ role diminished last season, so did Henry’s. The Chargers focused on putting the ball into the hands of Allen who was healthy all year. While Henry did see a boost in targets, receptions, and yards — he only had four touchdowns and went from the WR10 down to the WR12 in a season in which progression was assumed.
Gates has retired and his 52 targets are up for grabs. One-hundred targets are not out of the realm of possibility for the third-year pro out of Arkansas. Zach Ertz is going to be over-drafted and will be off the board by the fourth round because of his exceptional 2017 campaign. Henry will be a discount in the fifth round and will provide top five production with the chance to out-produce Ertz in 2018.
Fantasy Stock Watch: Rico Gathers
Current ADP: Undrafted
Projected ADP: 15.05-16.12
Jason Witten retired last week. Despite being 35-years-old in 2017, Witten managed to finish as TE10 with 63 receptions, 560 yards, and five touchdowns. In the fourth round, the Cowboys drafted Dalton Schultz, who caught 22 passes in his senior year. They also roster Geoff Swaim (currently the projected starter) whose career-high for receptions is six. It will be interesting how the Cowboys depth chart shakes out for 2018, but right now Rico Gathers provides the highest upside for any Cowboys tight end.
A former basketball player out of Baylor, Gathers was drafted by the Cowboys in the sixth round and has served as a project in development as he not only needed to adjust to the NFL, but to the sport of football in general. The 6-foot-6 285-pound Gathers flashed in the 2017 preseason as he caught seven passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns. If his raw ability and natural size and athleticism can be polished this offseason, Gathers could formulate a fantasy relevant season in 2018. Keep him on your radar — he could be a steal in the final round of redraft leagues and should certainly be considered in dynasty.
Fantasy Stock Watch: Carlos Hyde
Current ADP: 5.03
Projected ADP: 6.05-6.12
Hyde had a great year in 2017 for fantasy owners as he finished as the RB9. He flourished in the passing game in the Kyle Shanahan offense and was able to put together a 59-catch season for the 49ers. Unfortunately for Hyde, this sort of output in the passing game cannot be expected now that he joins Duke Johnson in the Browns backfield. Johnson caught 74 passes last year and even those stats should take a dip now that possession-receiver maven Jarvis Landry is in town. Hyde will be competing for touches with Johnson and rookie Nick Chubb out of Georgia. While it can be argued that Hyde is the most talented early-down back on the roster, he will need volume in order to be an RB1. At best, Hyde is a low-end RB2 in 2018.
Fantasy Stock Watch: Juju Smith-Schuster
Current ADP: 5.05
Projected ADP: 4.05-5.01
Smith-Schuster shined in his rookie season with the Steelers. In a perfect storm of opportunity for Juju owners, Antonio Brown missed two games last season and Martavis Bryant was blatantly causing distractions within the locker room (along with on social media), which put Bryant in coach Mike Tomlin’s doghouse. Smith-Schuster was able to put together a 58-catch, 917-yard, and seven-touchdown season despite being the third or fourth option at times in the Steelers offense.
With Bryant now in Oakland, Smith-Schuster has WR1 upside in the Steelers offense. He was the WR20 last season even though it took the Steelers a few weeks to get the rookie out of USC integrated into the offense. In fact, he did not have a target in Week 1 and did not record more than five catches until Week 8 when he broke out against the Lions, catching seven passes for 193 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers drafted James Washington out of Oklahoma State who will most likely replace Bryant as the deep threat (and provides fantasy relevance in that role), but Smith-Schuster should see an expanded role in 2018 as a possession receiver who has break-away speed. Ben Roethlisberger will be set free with offensive coordinator Todd Haley in Cleveland, which will give Smith-Schuster a high-ceiling in 2018, making his value tremendous in the fifth round.
Fantasy Stock Watch: Ty Montgomery
Current ADP: 7.04
Projected ADP: 9.03-11.01
The Packers backfield going into 2018 feels like the typical Patriots conundrum at the running back position that fantasy players have faced for years. Last season, it was Ty Montgomery who was the starter and projected to be an RB1 by season’s end. After a hot start, Montgomery went down with broken ribs, which opened the door for Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, who both traded injuries and the spotlight in the Packers backfield for the remainder of the season.
If anyone is telling you they know for certain that one of these guys will provide the workload in terms of touches for the Packers running backs in 2018, they are delusional. Once Mike McCarthy announces the starter in August, the touches will most likely be divided amongst the three backs. However, the former wide receiver Montgomery provides the highest ceiling in terms of receptions. In half-point PPR and PPR, this is substantial. The appeal of Williams’ and Jones’ potential will see them drafted ahead of Montgomery, making him the safer value who can be drafted late with the upside of exceeding his competition in fantasy production next season. The strategy in years past of drafting the last Patriots running back left on the board now applies to the Packers, and Montgomery should return value if he does slip in redraft leagues in 2018.