Mock drafts translate our thoughts into player values and better shape our draft strategy. League-mate tendencies can slightly change things for our actual drafts, but the core concept remains the same; Leverage draft position to acquire players based on individual rankings. Analysts from Fantrax and 4for4 recently got together for a Mock Rookie Draft. Mock participants and the draft order are shown below.
| Name | Affiliation |
|---|---|
| Josh Moore | 4for4 |
| Justin Edwards | 4for4 |
| Kate Magdziuk | Fantrax |
| Tyler Buecher | 4for4 |
| Holden Kushner | 4for4 |
| Luis Escalante | 4for4 |
| Nate Hamilton | Fantrax |
| Mike Woellert | 4for4 |
| Chris Allen | Fantrax |
| Kevin Zatloukal | 4for4 |
| Brandon Niles | 4for4 |
| Michelle Magdziuk | Fantrax |
Fantrax 2019 Mock Rookie Draft
Drafts, even mock drafts, can be entertaining. They’re my personal favorite component of fantasy. If ‘NFL teams can’t lie during the actual draft’, neither can we during our fantasy drafts. Reaching on players, acquiring value picks, and seeing different strategies executed is a window into our opponents. Plus, a fair amount of hilarity can ensue in the chat. But, enough of that. Let’s see how this rookie draft shook out.
League Setup & Scoring Details
League Type: 1QB
Scoring: PPR, No TE Premium
Trading During Draft? None
Round 1
| Rnd | Overall | Team | Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 1 | @4for4_Josh | Jacobs, Josh OAK RB |
| 1.02 | 2 | @Justin_Redwards | Harry, N'Keal NEP WR |
| 1.03 | 3 | @FFBallBlast | Sanders, Miles PHI RB |
| 1.04 | 4 | @TylerBuecher | Murray, Kyler ARI QB |
| 1.05 | 5 | Hocakes | Montgomery, David CHI RB |
| 1.06 | 6 | Luis Escalante | Metcalf, DK SEA WR |
| 1.07 | 7 | @DomiNateFF | Butler, Hakeem ARI WR |
| 1.08 | 8 | Mike Woellert | Brown, A.J. TEN WR |
| 1.09 | 9 | @ChrisAllenFFWX | Campbell, Parris IND WR |
| 1.1 | 10 | Franchise 6 | Isabella, Andy ARI WR |
| 1.11 | 11 | @2guysbrandon | Hardman, Mecole KCC WR |
| 1.12 | 12 | @BallBlastEm | Hockenson, T.J. DET TE |
Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery have maintained their place in the first tier of running backs in virtually any rookie draft. Jacobs sits at the top of the tier and personal preference dictating when the other two backs are selected. N’Keal Harry was in the 1.01 conversation prior to the NFL draft based on both his physical traits and college production. Being drafted by the New England Patriots at 32 overall solidifies his place as the WR1 of this class. No surprise these three players were selected at their respective costs in this mock.
Kyler Murray at 1.04 deviates from conventional wisdom (ADP: 10.9), but here’s where differing draft strategies come into play within a rookie draft. From Tyler Buecher (@TylerBuecher) on the pick:
1.04 is an ideal trade down spot based on my rookie rankings. The next tier is fairly deep, but Kyler Murray’s rushing upside could make him a perennial top-5 fantasy option.
In other words, go get your guy. A similar story with Hakeem Butler at 1.07. His slide into the fourth round of the NFL draft has adversely impacted his dynasty value. Regardless, Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF) had his own thoughts when selecting the rookie:
The Two RBs I would target in the first round expectedly went off the board. Decided to go Butler since I believe his path to becoming a major Fantasy asset in the future appears clearer than who else was available at 1.07.
The vacuum created by these two picks in this rookie draft was filled with value acquisitions. Parris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, and TJ Hockenson were all drafted past their ADP by single pick or greater. Small edges, but they can make a difference in true drafts as decisions to trade up or down are made constantly throughout the process.
Round 2
| Rnd | Overall | Team | Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 | 13 | @BallBlastEm | Henderson, Darrell LAR RB |
| 2.02 | 14 | @2guysbrandon | Samuel, Deebo SFO WR |
| 2.03 | 15 | Franchise 6 | Fant, Noah DEN TE |
| 2.04 | 16 | @ChrisAllenFFWX | Brown, Marquise BAL WR |
| 2.05 | 17 | Mike Woellert | Singletary, Devin BUF RB |
| 2.06 | 18 | @DomiNateFF | Thompson, Darwin KCC RB |
| 2.07 | 19 | Luis Escalante | Arcega-Whiteside, JJ PHI WR |
| 2.08 | 20 | Hocakes | Hill, Justice BAL RB |
| 2.09 | 21 | @TylerBuecher | Smith Jr., Irv MIN TE |
| 2.1 | 22 | @FFBallBlast | Johnson, Diontae PIT WR |
| 2.11 | 23 | @Justin_Redwards | Harris, Damien NEP RB |
| 2.12 | 24 | @4for4_Josh | Harmon, Kelvin WAS WR |
Darrell Henderson is a polarizing prospect and his value depends on your ‘medical expertise’. His first-round ADP assumes catastrophic failure in Todd Gurley’s knee along with the demise of both John Kelly and Malcom Brown. However, acquiring him at 2.01 in this rookie draft mitigates some of that risk.
Noah Fant at 2.03 is a half-round later than his current ADP. In addition, his athleticism matches former-teammate George Kittle’s and Fant seemingly walks into the starting role. Touchdown equity and volume at the team level will be a concern with Joe Flacco at the helm, but the development of a prospect along Fant’s archetype will alleviate the cost concerns.
The last pick that stood out in the second round of the mock was Darwin Thompson at 2.06. From Nate Hamilton after the pick:
Drafted in the late rounds but could emerge as a contender for touches. This backfield is no lock for Damien Williams or Carlos Hyde.
Like Henderson, Thompson presents a value acquisition in this mock depending on how you read the Kansas City backfield. Damien Williams’ ascension has brought along a fair amount of skepticism. However, taking a stance and capitalizing on the situation is a strategy employed by many dynasty managers.
Rounds 3 and 4
| Rnd | Overall | Team | Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.01 | 25 | @4for4_Josh | Sternberger, Jace GBP TE |
| 3.02 | 26 | @Justin_Redwards | Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB |
| 3.03 | 27 | @FFBallBlast | Oliver, Josh JAC TE |
| 3.04 | 28 | @TylerBuecher | Boykin, Miles BAL WR |
| 3.05 | 29 | Hocakes | Love, Bryce WAS RB |
| 3.06 | 30 | Luis Escalante | McLaurin, Terry WAS WR |
| 3.07 | 31 | @DomiNateFF | Lock, Drew DEN QB |
| 3.08 | 32 | Mike Woellert | Hurd, Jalen SFO WR |
| 3.09 | 33 | @ChrisAllenFFWX | Williams, Dexter GBP RB |
| 3.1 | 34 | Franchise 6 | Snell, Benny PIT RB |
| 3.11 | 35 | @2guysbrandon | Mattison, Alexander MIN RB |
| 3.12 | 36 | @BallBlastEm | Ridley, Riley CHI WR |
| 4.01 | 37 | @BallBlastEm | Williams, Trayveon CIN RB |
| 4.02 | 38 | @2guysbrandon | Warring, Kahale HOU TE |
| 4.03 | 39 | Franchise 6 | Pollard, Tony DAL RB |
| 4.04 | 40 | @ChrisAllenFFWX | Grier, Will CAR QB |
| 4.05 | 41 | Mike Woellert | Johnson, KeeSean ARI WR |
| 4.06 | 42 | @DomiNateFF | Jennings, Gary SEA WR |
| 4.07 | 43 | Luis Escalante | Armstead, Ryquell JAC RB |
| 4.08 | 44 | Hocakes | Anderson, Rodney CIN RB |
| 4.09 | 45 | @TylerBuecher | Ollison, Qadree ATL RB |
| 4.1 | 46 | @FFBallBlast | Moreau, Foster OAK TE |
| 4.11 | 47 | @Justin_Redwards | Hall, Emanuel CHI WR |
| 4.12 | 48 | @4for4_Josh | Ozigbo, Devine NOS RB |
Best Player Available is the typical draft strategy used by dynasty managers. Draft for value, trade for need. The first two rounds of this rookie draft emphasized this approach despite the occasional jump in ADP. With the first few tiers of rookies drafted, personal preference and team fits come into play.
Dexter Williams profiles as a better complement to Aaron Jones than Jamaal Williams. Dexter’s lack of targets is an issue, but his athleticism is far superior. If NFL draft capital is less of a factor, then talent favors Dexter. Therefore, capturing a piece of a productive offensive backfield in the third round is well worth the investment.
A similar thought process could be applied to Alexander Mattison. The Vikings surrendered a third-round pick into the Boise State prospect with Dalvin Cook returning from an ACL tear the previous season. He walks into a backup role in an offense geared toward the run. For instance, previous backups (e.g. Latavius Murray, Jerrick McKinnon) were serviceable and Mattison’s path to a greater share of the load is within his range of outcomes. Both picks emphasize understanding both the player and their role within their new offense as the mock draft progresses.
Trades and roster needs are other factors to consider during a rookie draft. However, they add layers to the constant activity of churning our rosters. As the community learns more about the players and their projected offensive roles, we adjust how we value them. Drafts given us some insight into that value, but being active within your league can help out in the long run.
Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). His primary focus has been the analysis of weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris’ writings have been featured on multiple websites including Fantrax, 4for4, and, most recently, Sports Illustrated. Chris can also be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Owners Manual podcast and is a member of the FSWA.
Fantrax was one of the fastest growing fantasy sites of 2018 and things are booming in 2019. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.