The late rounds in fantasy drafts are all about finding value. Filling out your fantasy baseball teams with smart additions in the late rounds can help set your team apart throughout the season. Some fantasy players like to target high-upside players that are breakout candidates. Others focus on making sure their team counting stats reach specific quotas. Maybe early in drafts you load your team slugging home runs hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso. Later in drafts, it might be beneficial to target players who can provide plenty of stolen bases. This article identifies five players going outside the top 350 picks in early drafts that will provide fantasy managers with plenty of stolen bases.
Players to Draft with Stolen Base Upside
Johan Rojas – OF, PHI
Rojas has been around on prospect lists for years now thanks to his elite speed but I am not sure anybody expected him to make his Major League debut in 2023. Rojas started the season in Double-A where is slashed .306/.361/.484 with nine home runs and 30 stolen bases. An injury to Brandon Marsh put the Phillies in a difficult situation and resulted in Rojas skipping Triple-A entirely. Rojas quickly proved to already be one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball and maintained an everyday role even after the return of Marsh.
Rojas played well during the regular season, but struggles during the playoffs have left him as a forgotten man this off-season. With the Phillies repeatedly showing a willingness to spend, many assume they will look to upgrade this spot in their lineup. However, here we are in February and Rojas still projects to be the Phillies starting center fielder. In a lineup filled with thumpers, the team could prefer to prioritize defense out there giving Rojas the upper hand on the starting job.
Getting to why Rojas is being included in this article, he has blazing speed. His speed ranked in the 96th percentile in all of baseball with elite base-stealing instincts. In 164 plate appearances, Rojas stole 14 bases last season. If Rojas receives just 500 plate appearances, that is a 42-steal pace. This is a player with elite speed and can finish amongst the tops in the league in stolen bases if given the opportunity.
Rojas’ bat has never been his strong suit, but it is better than what he showed during the playoffs. He has posted strong contact rates throughout his professional career and that continued at the Major League level. His speed helps him get on base even more and he is still only 23 years old. Rojas has been working hard all off-season. Yes, all fantasy players are suckers for “the best shape of their life” posts, but Rojas is in the best shape of his life! He has worked hard all off-season and could take another step forward in 2024.
The draft price for a former prospect with 45+ stolen base potential is shocking. Rojas is currently going as OF97. He is going behind players like Adam Duvall, Andrew Benintendi, and Ryan O’Hearn. None of those players offer the upside that Rojas has. His glove is going to keep him in the lineup and this makes him an elite value. Rojas needs to be your top target if you are looking for stolen bases late in drafts. The best news is that he is practically free outside of the top 540 picks.
Brice Turang – 2B, MIL
Turang was a popular late-round selection during 2023 drafts. After an excellent 2022 season in the Minor Leagues, he seemed poised to be fantasy-relevant. He won the Opening Day second base job and things got off to a fast start. An inflated BABIP came crashing down and Turang was sent back to Triple-A leading many fantasy managers to give up on him.
The most surprising part of Turang’s struggles was with his hit tool. Power has never been a part of Turang’s game but he consistently showed off excellent contact skills throughout his Minor League career. Prior to his demotion to Triple-A on June 10, Turang was striking out 27.1% of the time. Not only was he having trouble laying off pitches out of the strike zone, but he was struggling to make contact. These unforeseen red flags resulted in many giving up on him even once he returned.
Those who wrote Turang off missed the improvements he made after rejoining the Brewers on June 29. The slash line was still disappointing (.227/.306/.294), but the contact skills were drastically different. Turang’s profile resembled the player that we expected to see from his time in the minors. PLV shows just how drastic his contact improvements were:
Turang was a rookie in 2023. Rookies are not finished products and Turang’s ability to improve as the season moved along should be encouraging for fantasy managers. Even more encouraging was his production on the basepaths. Turang was a man on a mission during the second half of 2023. He went an impressive 17/17 on the bases during the second half. Prorating his second-half pace over 500 plate appearances, Turang would project to steal 37 bases. Turang has 96th percentile sprint speed with elite base-stealing instincts. The improved contact skills he showed off during the second half should help him to get on base even more in 2024. This in turn will lead to even more steals.
Turang is a great player to target late in fantasy drafts if you are looking for a boost in the stolen base category. He is currently going as 2B29 at pick 378 in drafts. Fantasy managers should not expect Turang to contribute much in the power department, but he is a career .270 batter in the Minor Leagues. The one thing fantasy managers can count on is speed. He projects to be the starting second baseman for Milwaukee on Opening Day with very few options behind him on the depth chart. He is a great pick that late in fantasy drafts and a cheap source of speed.
Liover Peguero- SS/2B, PIT
Peguero first found himself in my shortstop sleepers article released a couple of months ago. Now, I get the pleasure of writing about him for a second time. Peguero was a fast-rising prospect in the Pirates system during the 2022 season. Since coming over in a trade from Arizona, Peguero was showing off a solid combination of power and speed which fantasy managers tend to fall in love with.
Peguero joined the Pirates on July 17 and got inconsistent playing time throughout the second half. The results were inconsistent and he finished with a .237/.280/.374 slash in 213 plate appearances. Although the stats were disappointing, Peguero’s raw athleticism is obvious. His 6’2” frame packs plenty of raw power which has led to above-average home run rates throughout his professional career. Peguero also comes with 95th percentile sprint speed making it easy to dream about his potential. The biggest issue for Peguero has been getting the ball in the air consistently. He posted an average launch angle of 4.1 degrees. If he can increase this, there is easy 20/20 potential.
Any option late in drafts is going to come with some red flags. Peguero hits the ball on the ground too much and ran a strikeout rate of over 31% in his first (real) taste of Major League action. The upside is raw athleticism, a much lower strikeout rate in the Minor Leagues, and a starting spot entering 2024. Peguero stole six bases in the majors last season and another 21 in the minors. His upside stretches beyond stolen bases, but this is the main point of attraction for 2024.
There are not many Opening Day starters going outside of the top 500 picks in drafts. Peguero is going as the 38th-second baseman off the board at pick 524. He has the speed for 20+ stolen bases and the Pirates have no reason to be anything but patient with their young infielder in 2024. He is a great late-round target for those looking to boost their stolen base totals.
Harrison Bader – OF, NYM
Harrison Bader’s draft price seems to always be a little bit too high. Since making his Major League debut back in 2017, Bader has slashed periods of significant fantasy upside throughout his career, but people are finally starting to accept him for what he is. Bader is a defensive specialist. He plays an excellent center field but has not played in over 103 games since 2019. The fantasy community appears to be baking this risk into his draft price this season. Bader is going as OF95 outside of the top 490 picks in early drafts. At this price, fantasy managers should be considering buying back in.
The reason to buy back in his speed. Bader has always flashed an elite ability to steal bases and that has not fallen off. In a bit of a weird year battling injuries and switching teams partway through the season, Bader only appeared in 98 games. Despite accumulating just 344 plate appearances, Bader still stole 20 bases. This is after a 2022 season during which he stole 17 bases in just 313 plate appearances. Across Bader’s last 614 plate appearances, he has totaled 36 stolen bases. Expecting Bader to suddenly accumulate 600 plate appearances in one season is unrealistic, but the possibility for a 35+ steal upside at pick 551 makes him an intriguing late-round flyer.
The Mets signed Bader to a 10 million dollar deal this off-season. He projects as the team’s everyday center fielder so long as he can stay healthy with very few viable options behind him. If you are searching for speed in the outfield late in drafts Bader is a great option. One strategy is to punt steals early and target BOTH Rojas and Bader at the end of drafts. You are guaranteeing yourself speed from two Opening Day starters. Just one option to consider in your fantasy drafts.
Nick Senzel- OF/3B, WAS
This one is a little bit more of a long shot, but providing players that have eligibility felt important. This article has already hit on middle infield and outfield options so let’s shed some light on a potential late-round option for speed at third base. Senzel was the second-overall pick by the Reds back in 2016. Injuries derailed much of his early career which has never seemed to get off the ground. After being surpassed by numerous other prospects in Cincinnati, Senzel signed with Washington this off-season hoping for a fresh start.
With little competition on Washington’s roster, the team has already come out and said that they expect to give Senzel the full opportunity to earn the starting third base job. For all fantasy sports, opportunity is the most overlooked aspect. A player could have an elite skillset but be blocked by other talented players on the roster. Meanwhile, a player like Senzel has all of the opportunity in the world to try and put something together.
Senzel flashed early on last season batting .270/.341/.405 through May of last season. That slash is not anything to write home about, but for the first time since 2019, Senzel was flashing signs of potential. The rest of the season was disappointing, but his profile is not all bad. Senzel has shown off excellent plate discipline and contact skills throughout his career. He whiffed just 21.5% of the time last season and should see his strikeout rate come back down in 2024.
Although he will no longer be playing his home games in Great American Ballpark, Senzel will still be playing in a homer-friendly environment in Washington. Senzel was given a 55-grade future power by FanGraphs and posted the highest HR/FB% of his career last season. Expecting more than 10-15 home runs is probably unrealistic, but there is untapped potential still looming.
The reason Senzel finds himself on this list is his underrated speed. Senzel posted a sprint speed in the 75th percentile last season. He only stole six bases at the Major League level last season, but he stole another four in the Minor Leagues. He is a plus runner and the Nationals stole the 12th most bases in baseball last season. Senzel could be given the green light to run and has plus speed. He is a sneaky target late in drafts if you are searching for stolen base upside at third base. He is currently going as 3B40 in drafts around pick 530. This is essentially free making Senzel worth taking a shot on.
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