We looked at a pair of rookies last week with Luis Arraez and Austin Riley. Our Fire player this week is certainly not a rookie, but our Ice player (sadly) fits the rookie billing. He is already slipping down the rankings in my Starting Pitcher Barometer after a debut inside the top 40. Despite their divergent trends to this point, the future might hold vastly different outcomes.
Fire – Danny Santana
I don’t know if anything has surprised me this season more than Danny Santana’s sustained production. He has somehow amassed 291 plate appearances with a .324/.355/.588 slash line, 15 home runs, and 12 steals. As far as I know, Danny has no relation to Carlos Santana, but that is one smooth half-season. Rather than tapering off, Danny has actually posted his best season yet in July. He ranks 14th in all of baseball this July with a 1.085 OPS. That is even better than the crazy months Nelson Cruz and Paul Goldschmidt have had. Who is this Danny Santana and what has he done with the old one? Let’s head to Area 51 to search for answers!
Ok, maybe we don’t need to go quite that far. Something has to be different here, though. Outside of his 430 plate appearance rookie season with the Twins in 2014, Santana hasn’t even been able to hold a big-league role. From 2015-18, he has amassed 735 PAs with a .219/.256/.319 slash, 6 HR, and 28 SB. That wRC+ clocks in at a smokin’ 49. So what has changed this year? For starters, he is hitting the ball with more authority than ever.
Danny Santana’s hard contact rate has shot up 8.2% compared to his minuscule 15 game sample from 2018, but 9.9% since his 82 games in 2017. As you can see from the graphic, hard contact has also risen across the league. A rising tide raises all ships, they say, but Santana’s success does not hinge solely on the changed baseballs. His above-average 27.2% line drive rate has coupled with the hard contact to float an insane .406 BABIP.
That is just about where the fun bus pulls over and everyone starts throwing up. While Santana’s Hard% is strong and his 35.1% fly ball rate is higher than his 29% career mark, that does not equate to a 20.9% HR/FB%. His pull rate is modest at 41.4%, leading me to believe that his home run rate should creep down closer to his career 9.6% HR/FB%. There are some indications that he is selling out a bit for power. His 15.1% SwStr% is the highest of his career while his 72.8% contact rate is the worst. Perhaps that will help him reach 20 home runs, but it will negatively affect his average.
A 28% K% also doesn’t help the case for a .300+ batting average to continue. Statcast’s xwOBA for Danny Santana is .331, which is .050 points lower than his current .381 wOBA. That is the 11th largest delta in the league. His expected batting average is just .275, much closer to his career .268 mark. This isn’t necessarily a new Danny Santana, but it is the luckiest.
…wait, what? He had a .405 BABIP in his 101 game 2014 rookie season? Come on, that was such a great closing line! Well anyway, even if it’s not the luckiest he’s been, the point still stands. He could be good for a good 5-6 steals the rest of the way, which is plenty valuable these days. He is also eligible at first base, second base, and in the outfield. That flexibility is handy in deep leagues. This is all subject to change, naturally, as not only has Santana left Sunday’s game with a calf injury, but he is also the subject of trade rumors. Whatever may come, don’t expect it to be anywhere near as good as it’s been.
Ice – Dylan Cease
The White Sox kept us waiting a long time for Dylan Cease this year. He made it through 15 starts before Chicago decided it was time for him to join the club on July 3rd. Unfortunately, despite a manageable slate (DET, @KC, @TB, MIN) he has sputtered to a 6.86 ERA over 21 innings. This is not exactly what we had bargained for. Should we cease to roster Dylan Cease?
The biggest knock on Cease throughout the minor leagues was his lack of command. He has big, big stuff, but struggles to throw strikes. His lowest BB/9 came last year across two levels of the minors and still clocked in at 3.6 BB/9. Through his first four starts for Chicago, Cease has a 5.14 BB/9. Yeah, that will lead to some issues. His 61.9% first-pitch strike rate is solid, but a 40.9% Zone% would clock in as the 25th lowest mark in the league if he qualified for the leaderboard today.
Pounding the zone isn’t completely tied to success, however. If you can get batters to expand the zone and swing at pitches they can’t do much with, that’s a huge win. That’s what Cease is trying to do with this filthy curveball in particular.
I hadn’t noticed that with his last start, Dylan Cease qualifies for the pitch movement leaderboards.
His curveball is #1 in baseball for extra drop — +10 inches (!) over similar velo/release, just ahead of Bauer. (https://t.co/nV3mcqVu8I)
It looks like this: pic.twitter.com/N7uWPpaUgQ
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) July 26, 2019
As nasty as that curve looks, it has netted a meager 8.2% whiff rate so far. His slider hasn’t been much better, with a 12% whiff rate. both of those marks are well below-average. This is hard to believe, considering the spin rate and movement generated by those pitches. Perhaps sequencing is an issue, too much breaking stuff, or even an element of pitch tipping. In any case, the expected results look much better than his actual results per pitch.
It’s pretty hard to roll with Cease right now. The stuff is clearly there, between his 96 MPH heat, curve, slider, and change. Improved command will lead to more whiffs, but whether that comes along this year is hard to say. Due to the bad walk rate, his ERA indicators don’t look great. However, with a lower walk rate, his low 57.8% strand rate and elevated 18.2% HR/FB% could normalize and turn him into a legit fantasy option in short order. It’s a good time to try to buy low in dynasty, but he presents a lot of risk in single-season leagues.
Are you onboard with Nathan’s take on Danny Santana and Dylan Cease? For more great analysis from Nathan check out his full archive.
Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.
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