There is nothing like trying to figure out what to make of a young starting pitcher. That is what we will try to do with Sandy Alcantara in the first half of this edition of Fire & Ice. In the second half, however, we are going to diagnose what is going on with Eugenio Suarez, a player we have come to rely upon. Don’t be fickle, be smart!
Fire – Sandy Alcantara
Have a seat, laddy, and let me regale you of a time when the fantasy community lost their mints. *Kicks back in his wicker rocking chair, lights up a corn cob pipe, groans uncomfortably as he tries to take his own mind off of his kiwi-sized hemorrhoids* Yes, believe it or not, these fantasy baseball fellers fell in love with a pitcher after just one start. Spitting in the face of all logic (as well as 11 BB across 15 Spring Training innings), them folks bought full-in to eight shutout innings in Sandy Alcantara’s first start. He didn’ walk a batter but struck out six Rockies.
Let me tell you, laddy, it took longer for me to scrub my socks on this splintered washboard than it took for Sandy Alcantara to come back to earth. He walked five batters with zero strikeouts in his very next start against the Braves. Over the next month, he would post a 6.23 ERA over 30.1 innings with a 21:21 K:BB ratio. That’s almost as many walks as squirrels we’ve had for dinner over the past month. Since the calendar flipped to June though, he has posted a 2.10 ERA over 25.2 innings. His strikeout rate is up to 8.06 K/9 and his walk rate is down to 3.86 BB/9. Is there finally something worth getting your girdles hiked up for here?
One thing that is certainly the key to any future success for Sandy Alcantara is improving his strike-throwing ability. His career walk rate in the bigs is 4.84 BB/9 over 132 innings. The fact that his ERA on the season is 3.51 despite his 5.8% K-BB% is not something you would expect to see or ever repeat. To continue that element of success, the walk rate has got to drop. Fortunately, he has been making some progress in that regard.
Sandy Alcantara’s 38.2% Zone% is the 10th-lowest mark in baseball among qualified starters. Pounding the zone is not a necessity, of course. There are plenty of successful pitchers who don’t live in the zone yet are very successful. Luis Castillo, Patrick Corbin, and Shane Bieber all have bottom-10 zone rates, for example. As long as you can induce plenty of chases outside of the zone, your walk rate won’t skyrocket. Alcantara has been able to get plenty of swings out of the zone at 33% while also getting over for a first-pitch strike to 57.1% of opposing hitters.
His strikeout rate has improved thanks to a bit of an increase in slider usage. His 24.4% slider rate is the highest of his career, but the 13.5% whiff rate on his sinker is the most impressive part of his repertoire. His 65.2% ground ball rate on the sinker is also the highest of his career. While this all fuels a decent 11.2% swinging strike rate, Alcantara has never managed a strikeout per inning. Considering his mid-90’s fastball and plus slider, you would think a higher strikeout rate was in store. Perhaps an increase in strikeout rate will come with more command and pitchability.
Sandy Alcantara has made some strides that should not go unnoticed. However, it still feels like these small gains can regress over the span of another month. Even the 11% K-BB% over the span of June is far from noteworthy. There are incremental gains here that can be taken positively, but just one more month can easily yield results closer to his 4.86 Mar/Apr ERA. Hang on in dynasty and keeper leagues, but redraft leagues can treat Alcantara as waiver wire fodder.
Ice – Eugenio Suarez
Longtime listeners of the Nasty Cast know fully well how much I love Eugenio Suarez. He was a sleeper of mine long before his breakout. Technically, he is on pace to nearly match his home run total of 34 from 2018. However, there are some troubling trends with our third base stalwart. Is there really a reason to worry about this four-category stud?
We have to break Eugenio Suarez’s season down into portions. First, the early portion. From the beginning of the season until May 29, Suarez hit .279/.361/.552 with 14 home runs. That is over the span of 56 games. Up until May 29, all was well in the world of Eugenio Suarez. Unfortunately, on May 29, Suarez took a pitch off his left wrist. Initial tests came back negative, and Suarez was cleared of structural damage. All is well, right? RIGHT?!
Clearly, since this is filed under the “Ice” category, not all is “right.” Since his HBP on May 29th, Suarez has batted .158/.220/.237 over 19 games. He has just two homers over that span. To make matters worse, Suarez has seen his plate discipline numbers dip from 10.7% BB% / 24.5% K% to a 6.1% BB% / 29.3% K%. His fly ball rate has also dipped from 41.2% to 28.8%. It’s awfully hard to hit dingers when you’re not getting the ball in the air.
Frankly, it’s hard not to take those splits seriously when you have an exact data point to point to. Suarez’s hard contact has only dipped from 50% to 46.2%, which makes it less obvious that this could be the issue. Is it possible that this is merely a slump of epic proportions? Absolutely. Even the best players go through slumps like this nearly every single season. However, when a data point skews so loudly towards one outcome, it tends to weight my opinion.
Perhaps it will only be a matter of time before Eugenio Suarez rights the ship. Or, perhaps it will take an IL stint to get him to heal up properly and get back to the Suarez we expected. Either way, it’s hard to caution against a buy-low window here for Suarez. There may be a couple of weeks on the IL in which his value gets lower, but it’s hard for him to slump more than he has been for the past three weeks. Take advantage if you have an impatient owner in your league.
Are you onboard with Nathan’s take on Sandy Alcantara and Eugenio Suarez? For more great analysis check out his full archive.
Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.
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