The ADP market nailed the first base position in 2022. Five of the top six finishers at the position were drafted in the first five at the position. The sixth player was Christian Walker, who was drafted at an ADP of 408 and finished fifth at the position. You can see the image below on how first base was drafted in 2022 versus how they finished on the Razzball Player Rater.
You can see most of the value came from early picks at first base. It was a shallow position and one that is important to lock up early in 2022. But what does that look like for 2023? Let’s take a look at early ADP.
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First Base 2023 Draft Strategy
Looking at early ADP analysis for 2023, you have a cluster of first basemen at the top. Through 17 NFBC drafts, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes in as the highest-drafted first baseman at an average pick of 14. Freddie Freeman comes in right after at an average pick of 15.18. Freeman is probably the safest player you can draft at any position. Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso feel like safer bets in the second round.
Matt Olson is going at an average pick of 45, which is the last first basemen taken until Vinnie Pasquantino is drafted at 94 overall.
While drafting a first baseman in the top two rounds gives you a ton of safety, I like shopping in the 100-125 overall range Names like Nathaniel Lower, Rhys Hoskins, and Jose Abreu could all be interesting for 2023.
ADP is still evolving, and it is still early. But it does seem like you can wait until later in your draft to address the first base position. Just don’t wait too long.
First Base Review: 2022 Standouts
Freddie Freeman, LAD
Freeman may have seen some power regression, hitting his fewest home runs since 2015, with just 21. But he still led all first basemen with 13 stolen bases and a batting average of .325. Freeman has finished as a top-16 hitter each of the last five seasons on the Razzball Player Rater, including finishing third this season. Even though he turned 33 at the end of the season, Freeman is as safe as they come.
Paul Goldschmidt, STL
Paul Goldschmidt finished the season as the top first baseman in 2022 thanks to his 35 home runs and seven stolen base performance. He also drove in 115 while scoring 106 times. It was an elite performance, and even though he is 35, Goldschmidt seems pretty trustworthy at this point.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR
After his runner-up MVP performance in 2021, Vlad Guerrero Jr’s 2022 season seems like a major disappointment. Even still, he managed 32 home runs and even stole in eight bases. Guerrero hit .274 with a .339 OBP scoring 90 runs and driving in 97. If his price is depressed in 2022 drafts, I will make sure to draft him where I can.
Pete Alonso, NYM
It seems that every year, people sleep on Pete Alonso. Between his three full seasons (not including 2020), Alonso has hit 130 home runs. He leads all of baseball since 2019 with 146 home runs. There is no safer bet for 40 HR than Alonso(yes, even Judge). Not to mention he provides a solid batting average floor.
Christian Walker, ARI
Christian Walker was the only first baseman to finish in the top five at the position that was not drafted in the top five at the position. His price tag might be out of control in 2023, thanks to his 36-home run performance. Walker’s xBA of .257 was much higher than his actual batting average of .242. His second half was particularly good as Walker hit .285 with 14 home runs. I don’t know what to expect from him in 2023, but I will likely be priced out in drafts.
Statistical Leaders
Home Runs
Pete Alonso – 40
Christian Walker – 36
Paul Goldschmidt – 35
Rowdy Tellez – 35
Matt Olson – 34
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 32
Anthony Rizzo – 32
Rhys Hoskins – 30
Stolen Bases
Freddie Freeman – 13
Seth Brown – 11
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 8
Yuli Gurriel – 8
Paul Goldschmidt – 7
Connor Joe – 6
Josh Naylor – 6
Alfonso Rivas – 6
Anthony Rizzo – 6
Batting Average (min 250 plate appearances)
Freddie Freeman – .325
Paul Goldschmidt – .317
Luis Arraez – .316
Jose Abreu – .304
Nathaniel Lowe – .302
Harold Ramirez – .300
Vinnie Pasquantino – .295
Runs
Freddie Freeman – 117
Paul Goldschmidt – 106
Pete Alonso – 95
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 90
RBI
Pete Alonso – 131
Paul Goldschmidt – 115
Matt Olson – 103
CJ Cron – 102
Freddie Freeman – 100
2nd Half Stats Leaders
HR
Albert Pujols – 18
Matt Olson – 17
Rowdy Tellez – 17
Pete Alonso – 16
Seth Brown – 15
Paul Goldschmidt – 15
Nathaniel Lowe – 15
Stolen Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 8
Freddie Freeman – 6
Yuli Gurriel – 5
Josh Naylor – 5
Seth Brown – 4
Runs
Freddie Freeman – 57
Pete Alonso – 45
Paul Goldschmidt – 42
Matt Olson – 42
Christian Walker – 40
RBI
Pete Alonso – 53
Albert Pujols – 48
Christian Walker – 48
Paul Goldschmidt – 45
Matt Olson – 43
Freddie Freeman – 41
Batting Average
Nathaniel Lowe – .339
Freddie Freeman – .331
Vinnie Pasquantino – .328
Joey Meneses – .324
Albert Pujols – .323
Jose Abreu – .305
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