Due to the All-Star Break happening after this weekend, there will be no two-start pitching options this coming week. That’s great because I could use the break! Instead, this week we will look at both the good and bad surprises from the first half in the starting pitching realm. Who seemingly came out of nowhere and has been terrific? On the other hand, which pitchers did we have high expectations for that have gone unmet? I will not cop out and use injuries as a cause for disappointment, as injuries happen to pitchers every year. Instead, we will look at those that we banked on who have not performed to expectations.
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First Half Surprises: The Good
Carlos Rodon: Rodon was a free agent looking for work when the White Sox re-signed him to a one-year, $4 million deal late this winter. A first-round draft pick, Rodon had always been long on talent and short on results. Injuries plagued him: various shoulder issues, bursitis, and Tommy John surgery in 2019, all limiting his availability and effectiveness. Rodon won a rotation spot on the White Sox with an excellent Spring Training, culminating in an All-Star nod this week. On the season, Rodon is 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA and .96 WHIP. The 130 strikeouts place him in the top-10 of pitchers. Rodon relies on the improved velocity of his four-seam fastball (up three MPH to 95.9 since last year) and a vicious slider; batters are hitting .106 off that slider. He does not seem to have been part of this sticky ball controversy either; spin rates look consistent from year to year. Can he continue? The pedigree of being a top draft pick says yes, but the checkered injury history really bears watching as the grind continues into the second half. But I would be a liar if I told you we saw this breakout coming. Rodon came within one hit batter of throwing a perfect game earlier in the season and has been one of two aces (Lance Lynn being the other) for the first-place Chicago White Sox.
Kyle Gibson: Gibson had been a serviceable back-end of your fantasy rotation for a number of years. At the very least, he was a guy you could stream based on matchups and hope for a few strikeouts. I always felt somewhat comfortable taking him as a seventh or eighth starter as depth to guard against injuries. And then Gibson started the year with an awful line, getting only one out in his season debut while giving up five runs in a shellacking. All he has done since then is be excellent: 6-1, 2.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. He has chipped in 88 strikeouts in 101 innings. OK, so the K rate is not dominant, but he is giving you quality innings and been an unexpected source of help for your teams. It’s a possibility that Gibson could be traded to a contender in coming weeks which would be something to monitor closely; he’s 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in home starts in Globe Life Field, his current home park.
Matt Barnes: I will fully admit that before the season began, I was not taking Barnes anywhere unless I was speculating on a third closer. Well, shame on me. Barnes has been terrific all year. He’s 4-2, with a 2.68 ERA and .86 WHIP. Barnes has a staggering 62 strikeouts in 37 innings. He’s got a 44.6 K%. He has cut the BB % to 7.2, and the xERA shows even better at 1.76. Controlling the walks has been the key for him, and he has surrendered only 10 free passes all year. Barnes has locked down the Boston closer job and shows no signs of relinquishing it for a surprising first-place team.
Honorable Mention: Yusei Kikuchi, Anthon DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle
First Half Surprises: The Bad:
Gerrit Cole: I know it is hard to be disappointed in a guy who is 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA, .96 WHIP, and 135 punchouts in 105 innings. But based on where he was taken in most drafts, the results over the last month or so have been mediocre; Cole was 2-2 with a less-than-league average 4.65 ERA. He gave up nine home runs in his five June starts. Last week he gave up four earned runs and three walks in 3.1 innings. Now this isn’t necessarily awful, and these are usable stats, but not for the guy you drafted in the first round to be your ace. Cole has also been mentioned, fairly or unfairly, in the Spider Tack controversy; was he using an extra illicit substance on the ball to get extra spin? We don’t know. But we do know that Cole has historically been among the best pitchers in baseball, and there has to be some concern attached to him at this point of the year.
Blake Snell: I have never gotten the hype on Snell. His stuff is excellent but outside of his remarkable Cy Young season in 2018, he’s not been that great for fantasy purposes. Snell is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA. YEs, the 93 Ks in 70.1innings help, but the 1.55 WHIP does not. What has happened to Snell? Well, to start with, the BB % is a career-worst 13.8, which puts him in the bottom 7% of all MLB starters. His hard-hit % is a career-worst 41.7. The inconsistency has been maddening; he has had games of 10 and 11 strikeouts where he got wins. He has also had four outings where he has given up more than five earned runs. Again, similar to Cole above, you likely drafted him as your top starter, and if you did that, you likely have been disappointed and likely have had to pivot off him. That being said, I don’t know what you do with this; sell low? Hang on and hope for better? Start him each week hoping he figures it out? Snell did land on the IL this past week with a case of gastroenteritis. It did impact him going back more than a week and he was unable to make his last start because of it. Here’s hoping the rest does him good. Snell is too good to have been this bad.
Luis Castillo: Castillo is 3-10 with a 4.81 ERA and bloated 1.40 WHIP. Egads! What happened? Wasn’t Castillo a fantasy darling before the season started, with many touting him as one of the top 5-6 starts in baseball? Taking a dive into the stats, the first thing that jumps out at you is the lower K%, down from 30.5% last year to a less-than-league average 21.2%. Castillo has 90 punchouts in 97.1 innings. As was noted by other writers, Castillo’s velocity was down a tick (97.4 to 96.8 on his fastball, and the slider 86.8 to 85.9), but that cannot be the only reason for his rough start. Location, especially with the changeup, appears to have been an issue for Castillo. There have been signs that he is breaking out of the slump in June and July: 2-2 with a 1.71 ERA in June, and two more decent starts thus far in July resulting in no decisions but a 2.70 ERA and .90 WHIP. Most fantasy managers seem to have hung on to him, and it looks like they might reap some benefits from that decision if Castillo can keep the ship moving in this better direction.
Dishonorable Mention: Kenta Maeda (really any Twins pitcher outside of Jose Berrios), Dylan Bundy, Aaron Nola
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