Five Reasons Bryce Harper is not a First-Round Pick

You can just feel the excitement! Sure, there is concern that the MLB season may start late, as the players and owners work out their CBA, but that doesn’t stop us from constantly thinking about and preparing for our drafts. Each year, especially in redraft leagues, the draft is the opportunity to start off the new season with as much chance of winning the league as anyone else. Even if your team finished in the cellar the previous season, it’s time to cut bait, fire them all, and start from scratch. All is positive and optimism is at its peak.

Well until it comes time to decide on your first-round pick. Often considered the most important pick of your entire draft, the first pick will set the tone for your team. Will you be well balanced with hitting and pitching? Will you be strong with hitting and just be active on the waiver wire to fill the gaps in your pitching? Or most importantly, will you place your bet on a player that just flat out disappoints – Thanks Mike Trout who single-handedly killed my season last year – I know, not his fault he got injured – but it still hurt. There are many players to choose from to be your first-round pick, but one I recommend you do not choose is Bryce Harper. In fact, here are five reasons why Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick.

Things look bleak now but there will be baseball in 2022! Why not get a head start and jump in a Fantrax Classic Draft contest? Get a jump on the season with a Best Ball league or maybe a Draft and Hold. Or put some green on the line with a new season-long league to try and conquer. There’s no better time than now to get your baseball on!

Yes, Bryce Harper is the reigning National League MVP, and wow can he sure hit. He is still under 30, with a ton of experience, and the centerpiece of the Phillies. But all that aside, consider

5 Reasons Bryce Harper should not be your first round

1. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he is not ranked in the Top 12

Based on a 12-team league, Harper does not break into the top 12 from a rankings perspective. Utilizing, and combining, the hitting and pitching rankings from this year’s FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, he comes in at 13.

Rank	Player	EC	CC	RK	MC	JD	LK	MH	NC
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	2
2	Juan Soto	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	1
3	Bryce Harper	3	4	4	3	5	4	4	3
4	Ronald Acuna Jr.	4	3	3	5	3	5	5	5
5	Mike Trout	8	7	7	6	4	3	3	4
6	Mookie Betts	7	6	5	7	6	7	9	7
7	Kyle Tucker	5	8	8	4	8	6	8	9
8	Luis Robert	6	5	6	8	10	8	7	8
9	Yordan Alvarez	9	10	9	9	15	9	10	6
10	Aaron Judge	10	11	12	14	7	11	6	13
11	Teoscar Hernandez	11	12	11	11	14	14	14	10
12	Starling Marte	12	9	10	10	12	13	22	11
13	Cedric Mullins	14	14	14	12	11	12	17	17
14	Tyler O'Neill	15	13	15	15	17	19	19	16
15	George Springer	19	16	18	19	9	15	21	12
16	Whit Merrifield	13	15	16	13	13	21	25	15
17	Eloy Jimenez	17	19	17	18	21	16	23	14
18	Byron Buxton	24	17	13	20	18	10	20	25
19	Nick Castellanos	16	24	22	17	16	18	15	21
20	Randy Arozarena	20	20	19	16	19	20	13	26
21	Bryan Reynolds	18	21	20	26	29	22	16	18
22	Ketel Marte	21	25	28	22	20	17	11	32
23	Giancarlo Stanton	26	18	21	27	30	24	18	19
24	Brandon Lowe	23	26	30	21	22	31	12	22
25	J.D. Martinez	22	23	23	24	28	27	26	27
26	Christian Yelich	39	28	27	28	23	23	33	24
27	Jesse Winker	25	27	29	32	31	28	24	33
28	Franmil Reyes	34	22	24	36	36	30	29	20
29	Jared Walsh	29	29	25	33	27	33	32	34
30	Cody Bellinger	30	33	26	29	34	25	36	29
31	Kris Bryant	27	36	32	25	25	26	41	31
32	Mitch Haniger	32	31	31	30	32	29	46	23
33	Trent Grisham	35	35	36	39	35	34	34	35
34	Tommy Edman	28	43	45	23	24	36	50	41
35	Daulton Varsho	33	34	37	34	26	35	55	38
36	Kyle Schwarber	40	40	35	35	33	39	31	44
37	Austin Meadows	36	39	38	42	41	32	40	30
38	Jarred Kelenic	31	50	39	40	45	40	42	52
39	Alex Verdugo	44	42	44	46	42	46	45	42
40	Marcell Ozuna	58	32	40	58	38	61	44	28
41	Joey Gallo	43	49	51	51	49	44	30	51
42	Jorge Soler	51	41	43	56	56	51	35	36
43	Ian Happ	47	45	47	55	48	52	28	50
44	Michael Conforto	37	46	50	53	50	53	27	59
45	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	50	51	55	43	40	43	53	55
46	Alex Kirilloff	41	57	56	50	51	41	48	47
47	Chris Taylor	49	60	63	41	43	37	49	53
48	Seiya Suzuki	46	38	41	62	57	45	64	43
49	Myles Straw	45	53	49	37	44	58	51	63
50	Akil Baddoo	38	55	52	45	53	54	62	46
51	Avisail Garcia	65	44	42	49	46	47	75	39
52	Robbie Grossman	42	56	54	54	58	49	61	45
53	Dylan Carlson	48	54	70	48	54	48	52	58
54	Eddie Rosario	56	48	48	44	55	50	80	56
55	Hunter Renfroe	59	70	60	47	47	42	54	72
56	Andrew Benintendi	53	52	58	57	65	57	58	57
57	Austin Hays	55	58	62	60	52	67	72	48
58	Michael Brantley	68	47	46	71	62	66	70	49
59	Adolis Garcia	54	62	53	52	67	76	65	62
60	Andrew Vaughn	74	64	64	68	64	59	39	60
61	Ramon Laureano	61	65	67	63	60	65	73	65
62	Jo Adell	70	61	59	70	72	55	79	54
63	Jesus Sanchez	67	68	65	69	71	60	60	66
64	Enrique Hernandez	63	85	68	59	63	70	43	85
65	Harrison Bader	77	66	NR	66	66	56	76	64
66	AJ Pollock	62	63	81	61	61	77	74	61
67	Charlie Blackmon	60	72	57	65	74	63	77	73
68	Adam Duvall	57	59	69	67	59	80	84	69
69	Mark Canha	72	69	NR	74	77	62	59	67
70	Brandon Nimmo	79	67	66	82	73	79	57	68
71	Lane Thomas	52	79	80	72	78	82	56	78
72	Tommy Pham	75	78	75	75	80	64	66	70
73	Mike Yastrzemski	71	76	73	78	70	68	69	84
74	Max Kepler	102	80	76	80	76	69	37	79
75	Anthony Santander	84	73	91	73	75	81	68	71
76	Josh Rojas	83	75	72	64	79	86	NR	87
77	Andrew McCutchen	64	81	74	89	81	NR	96	80
78	Wil Myers	66	90	87	81	83	78	85	88
79	Kyle Lewis	104	87	NR	84	86	75	63	82
80	Jeff McNeil	90	77	77	86	82	71	101	83

Of course, rankings are speculative and in some cases, the gap between two players may be negligible and yes sometimes subjective. It just is what it is and Harper does not make the first-round cut.

2. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he plays in a position that is stacked

Of all the positions on your fantasy team, the outfield position is the easiest to fill and easiest to replace if a player goes down. Also, many teams have a load of prospects, in the outfield position, just ready to come up and take over. In our Top 250 Hitters for 2022 almost half of the Top 40 are outfielders. That being the case, if you miss out on a first-round outfielder, there will be plenty of fantasy-producing outfielders in the next few rounds.

Some would argue you take the best player on the board, and in many cases that is true. But if the best player is in a stacked position and the one just below him is in a more limited position like C (only 1 in the top 40) or 3B (only 4) I am picking based on the position.

3. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he may be an injury risk

Let’s be honest, all MLB players are an injury risk. The days of ironmen like Cal Ripken Jr. are long passed. However, according to FanGraphs, Harper missed 21 games last year. Not horrible, compared of course to Mike Trout who missed 126 games (I digress) but we need to make sure our first-rounder stays on the field and in our lineups.

Granted in 2018 and 2019, Harper only missed 8 games total, but prior to that he missed 51 games in 2017. So were 2021 and 2021 the anomaly or were 2018 and 2019. It’s a tough call and with COVID-19 and the apparent increase of time MLB players are spending on the IR, can we count on Harper producing day in and day out.

4. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because his 2021 season was great, but is it repeatable?

Harper is a career .279/.392/.524 hitter. Nothing to sneeze at and those are some great numbers. But those numbers have been really inflated based on three years 2021 (.309/.429/.615) and 2017 (.319/.413/.595) and 2015 (.330/.460/.649). But each year coming off of those great seasons, Harper was unable to produce the same, and in fact he regressed quite a bit.

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG
2015	.330	.460	.649
2016	.243	.373	.441
2017	.319	.413	.595
2018	.249	.393	.496
2021	.309	.429	.615
2022	TBD	TBD	TBD

Based on previous years, Harper’s numbers are due to regress and history shows that 2022 may not be an MVP type year.

5. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he simply doesn’t steal enough bases

Harper’s hitting numbers will regress, and the hope would be that my first-round pick would be able to make up that regression with another category like stolen bases for example. In 2016, Harper had a career-low batting average of .243 but was able to make up his lack of putting the ball in play by achieving a career-high 21 stolen bases. However, his career average SB sits at about 10.

If I am going to pick up a big bat that has 10 or fewer stolen bases, I am going to pick up a Vlad Guerrero Jr. or Juan Soto that are expected to progress and increase their hitting numbers vs. a Bryce Harper that I expect to regress.

In all transparency, I am a big Bryce Harper fan and have been since his debut in 2012. I believe he would make a great addition to any fantasy team in 2022. Fantasy league managers just need to manage expectations of him and not go all-in in the first round for him.

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