In the fantasy world, owners will take a look at the free agent market to see where impact players will land in the 2019 season. Especially for the free agent pitchers, much of their value, whether you are in a redraft, keeper or dynasty league, is where these players will call home. Player movement can change everything. A new addition can bump another out of a role and render him nearly valueless. Like real estate, part of their value next season will be determined by location, location, and location. Here is a look at the free agent pitchers whose fantasy value hangs in the balance this offseason.
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2018-19 Free Agent Pitchers: The Starters
Note: This doesn’t include players with 2019 club options that are very likely to be picked up, such as Chris Sale or Madison Bumgarner.
Tier I starters
Patrick Corbin
Dallas Keuchel
J.A. Happ
Charlie Morton
David Price — Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract.
Corbin and Keuchel lead this list, and with the expectation that both sign with contenders, both can and should be top 25 fantasy pitchers in 2019. Happ and Morton could also be in the same conversation as both had solid 2018 seasons, and both should be on the radar of fantasy owners.
Tier II starters
CC Sabathia
Anibal Sanchez
Nathan Eovaldi
Gio Gonzalez
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Trevor Cahill
Derek Holland
Clay Buchholz
Wade Miley
Matt Harvey
Jeremy Hellickson
Garrett Richards
Tyson Ross
Sanchez was one of the biggest pitching surprises in 2018, posting a 2.83 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a 135:42 strikeout to walk ratio over 136.2 innings. The right situation could keep him in the top 50 for fantasy next year. Harvey is also an interesting free agent, posting solid numbers for the Reds. This should allow him to draw interest from contending teams and make him a reliable fantasy option in 2019. Ryu finished in the top 50 last year, even with a groin injury. A 1.97 ERA, 3.00 FIP, striking out 27.5 percent of batters and walking just 4.6 percent could easily put him as a top 20 fantasy pitcher next season. Holland, Eovaldi, Cahill, and Hellickson finished in the top 100 and should be solid for fantasy rosters next year.
Tier III starters
Brett Anderson
Edwin Jackson
Marco Estrada
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
The rest of the pitchers in this list should only have value in deeper leagues, but a favorable signing could put them on the radar for standard leagues.
Free Agent Relief Pitchers
Tier I Relievers
Adam Ottavino
Jeurys Familia
Zach Britton
Cody Allen
David Robertson
Craig Kimbrell
Sergio Romo
The closer list is not nearly as impressive as the starter list. Joining Kimbrell on the elite list is Ottavino, who statistically was one of the five best relievers in 2018. Wherever they end up, they should both be primed for save opportunities and top five ranking closers. Robertson is in an interesting position. He could stay in New York and keep his setup role, or he could try another club and get regular chances to get saves. Familia’s 2018 indicates that he is ready for some full-time save opportunities. Allen and Britton should end up as the primary closer for other teams, putting them in the top 15 for fantasy closer rankings
Tier II relievers
Jesse Chavez
Oliver Perez
Tony Sipp
Zach Duke
Brad Brach
Joe Kelly
Jake Diekman
Justin Wilson
Tyler Clippard
Shawn Kelley
Andrew Miller
Kelvin Herrera
Mark Melancon — Can opt out of the two years and $28 million remaining on his contract.
Sergio Romo
Traditionally each team designates one reliever to close, but so many bucked tradition in 2018, either playing matchups in the late innings or just switching around roles based on analytics that we are not sure who will be closing for about a third of the league come to the start of the 2019 season. Some of the other players on the Tier II list could end up in closer by committee situations, giving them the opportunity for a few saves and making them fantasy relevant.
The other the interesting part about these free agents is speculating how many of these pitchers could eventually end up as “openers”. This is especially intriguing after two former coaches of the Tampa Bay Rays have recently been hired as managers for other clubs. The Toronto Blue Jays hired Charlie Montoyo to be their new manager, joining Rocco Baldelli in Minnesota as the other former Ray staff to take over clubs. The Rays used the opener quite a bit this year, having some nice success with this strategy. This is coupled with some analytics that suggests that starting pitchers significantly struggle with hitters the third time around the order. It is something to watch in 2019 to see if the opener trend spreads to other teams. This could have an interesting impact on fantasy pitching staffs.
Keep up with all the latest Fantasy Baseball happenings with Van Lee, Jeff Zimmerman, and Rob Silver on the Launch Angle Podcast.
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Nice article