Friends In Low Places: Part 1 – Value Hitters

I feel we often overlook potential value hitters who find themselves in bad situations and I’m here to discuss six hitters who are good for your team but on bad teams. Essentially, it is always good to have friends in low places. Yes, just as the song states.

Of course, there are more than six but these are a few players going deeper in drafts that I feel little is being said about and I wanted to highlight them. Lastly, I purposely avoided names that were too obvious. I wanted to target value hitters that are falling in drafts right now while simultaneously being on a bad team.

Let’s get to it!

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Value Hitters for 2020

Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, Miami Marlins

Brian’s Anderson at first glimpse is nothing flashy but I truly have come around on him and realized he’s a great value this year.

So what happened that made you so excited about Brian Anderson?

Well, I’m glad you asked. When you look at the surface numbers you may only see 20 home runs with 66 RBI with a triple slash of .261/342/.468. So what’s the big deal? Well, that was just in 126 games and there were interesting changes in the underlying metrics.

Before we even dive into the said metrics, let’s not overlook the fact he’s in the best lineup he’s been in since being a Major Leaguer. He is likely batting second between Johnathan Villar and Corey Dickerson with Aguilera hitting cleanup. This is the most lineup protection and potential for counting stats he’s likely ever had. Now back to those changes.

Anderson appeared to be a bit more aggressive at the plate in 2019. This led to chasing a bit more but he had a career-high zone contact rate in the process. Along with the change in plate approach, was a lift in launch angle as well as an increase in barrel rate. The lift in the launch angle decreased the ground ball rate. Just to add a little extra something, he could provide a few chip-in steals. He stole five bags last season and has 53rd percentile sprint speed. If you can get a few extra steals from a player you don’t expect them from, that’s just a bonus.

At the end of the day, all these changes suggest the gain in power production is legit and if the changes hold, and of course throw in those few steals, he could really have himself a breakout season.

Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles better let Austin Hays get full run at playing time this season. He is arguably in the post-hype sleeper category at this point. He got a quick look in the majors last season, and he put up 4 home runs with 2 steals and a triple slash of .309/.373/.574. The gaudy triple slash, of course, won’t repeat, but one could dream!

He has always flashed good plate discipline. He often struck out between 15 to 20 percent and only struck out 17.3% in his small 2019 sample I mentioned earlier. Hays was actually able to move up through three different levels last season.

If you combine all three of those stops, he flashed a nice combination of power and speed with 17 home runs and 11 steals. I think he could be closer to a .260 or so hitter, but the power and speed potential is there. It never hurts to be calling Camden Yards your home either. Ultimately, Hays has become a frequent target of mine this draft season.

Shed Long, 2B, Seattle Mariners

Shed Long is a great target for your drafts this season. He is going to hit top-two in the lineup without much doubt in my mind. Long is a player who has flashed good walk rates all throughout the minors and it showed in his cup of coffee last season. He also hit 14 home runs and stole 4 bases when you combine Triple-A and his major league stint.

I would expect the steals to take a step forward if he is hitting at the top of the Mariner lineup that may require him to steal to do so. Long has a sprint speed in the 68th percentile and also stole 19 bases as recent as 2018. The speed should not be an issue.

I really believe he could give you 12 to 15 home runs with double-digit steals, not to mention doing so while playing at arguably the thinnest position in fantasy. Shed Long is a great fallback option at middle infield or second base if need be.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants

Mike Yastrzemski is quietly getting a lot of run as a leadoff hitter this spring training. I would love that for him because that would lead to a lot more at-bats. But ultimately, I’d be happy with a spot in the top four in the lineup and that should be all but a sure thing in this lineup.

In 2019, Yaz put up 33 home runs across Triple-A and the majors. It will be interesting to see how he comes into this season after the early success last season. His strikeout rate of 26.0% can be a bit concerning but with a 29.2% O-Swing, which was better than league average, there is actually a chance to improve on it if he can make a little more contact as a whole.

Yastrzemski showed the power is pretty real with an above-average hard-hit rate and xSLG, and if he can come close to repeating the 11.2% barrel rate, the power production should maintain. Even if the lineup is less than desirable, Yastrzemski is one of my favorite value hitters for 2020.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

I don’t know if the Blue Jays will be as bad as we expect but I believe this season they fall into the “bad team” category. One player I cannot quit from the Blue Jays is  Teoscar Hernandez. He does just enough every season to get us coming back for more. He came around in the second half and really flashed the upside he offers.

Teoscar Hernandez had quietly solid 2nd half of 2019.

– Tied for 7th most HR in 2H w/ 18 HR

– wRC+ of 142 – same as Juan Soto, Aaron Judge & Trey Mancini

– Tied w/ Bregman for the 4th highest ISO of .333

NFBC DC ADP since Jan. 1: 338

Cheap late power.

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) February 1, 2020

The big concern, and what I failed to mention in this tweet, is the K-rate. If he can show any growth in his plate discipline we could see a huge year out of him. He is running out of chances but with his power and speed tools, I would ride his output until the wheels fall off. Just be aware the batting average is a huge issue unless the growth in contact is made.

So if you are rostering Hernandez this season, you will need to build up the batting average floor prior to adding him to your teams.

Cameron Maybin, OF, Detroit Tigers

I can’t believe in 2020, I’m still listing Cameron Maybin among our value hitters. This is for the deeper leaguers out there but I really like the value and stolen base potential that can be had for essentially free in drafts. When you’re eyeing cheap speed in drafts there are a few things that can help you find it.

I look for an opportunity for everyday playing time and I also look for where I believe a player will hit in the lineup. This leads me to Maybin’s doorstep. He signed with the Tigers this offseason and all of Spring Training not only is he starting, but he is leading off.

Again, Spring Training can be deceiving but I truly believe there is something to this. Even when Jacoby Jones is in the lineup, Maybin has been given the leadoff spot.

With sprint speed in the 87th percentile, paired with a good walk rate, and a decent OBP, Maybin will be on base plenty and grabbing himself double-digit steals as long as he’s in the lineup.

Furthermore, the Tigers may need to manufacture runs so that should allow a green light for stolen bases. At the end of the day, this is not a flashy player to draft but there’s definitely deep league appeal and value to be had here.

Who are your favorite value hitters for 2020? Drop some names in the comments below and we just might give you a shoutout on Twitter!

For more great rankings, strategy, and analysis check out the 2020 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. We’ll be adding more content from now right up until Opening Day!

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