In my next two articles, I will be identifying a few programs from the G5 and P5 that I predict will experience a touchdown or more improvement in their offensive production this upcoming season.
G5 Teams that will make a leap in CFF production in 2020
Nevada –
2019 was a reshuffling of the deck for Nevada and head coach Jay Norvell. The Wolf Pack averaged 31.1 PPG and 431 YPG in 2018 en route to an 8-5 season. Their campaign was capped off by a thrilling 16-13 overtime victory over Arkansas St. in the Arizona Bowl. However in 2019 Nevada planned to replace departed QB Ty Gangi, who was very familiar with OC Matt Mumme’s air-raid offense, with perennial hard-case and Last Chance U QB, Malik Henry.
The QB transition was as smooth as sandpaper, as Malik Henry quickly flamed out pressing his apprentice, freshman QB Carson Strong, into starting duty. Breaking in a new QB, four new offensive linemen and replacing leading WR transfer McClane Mannix led to a substantial drop in production. Nevada averaged a meager 21.3 PPG and 365 YPG with a Norvell-era low of 250 yards passing per game. On the ground, the inexperienced offensive line accounted for only a 3.4 YPC on the year.
Entering their fourth season together at Nevada, HC Norvall and OC Mumme return 10 starters. Second-year QB Carson Strong worked through his growing pains to record a solid 63.4 completion percentage on the year. Strong threw at least 40 passes in 4-of-his-last-6 games, competing over 60% of his passes in each of those last six contests with an 8/3 TD/INT ratio.
Elijah Cooks (6’4/220 -120 targets/76 recs/926 yds/12.2 YPC/8 TD) and Romeo Doubs (6’2/195 – 73 targets/44 recs/649 yds/14.8 YPC/4 TD) are proven weapons on the outside who will be joined by promising sophomore slot receiver, Melquan Stovall (25 targets/19 recs/162 yds/9.0 YPC). Cooks received 31 deep targets last season, catching nine, excelling as the team’s deep threat. He should thrive this year as a more experienced Carson Strong will look to stretch the field more often this season.
Starting junior RB Toa Taua has been entrenched as the starting RB since his freshman season, catching 30-of-37 passes last season while rushing 196 times for 806 yards and six touchdowns. Their top six OL are back along with 77 career starts so we should see an increase to the 4.5 YPC level of Norvell’s first two seasons.
I expect a return to the 2018 level of offensive output and produce low-30’s PPG and low-400’s in YPG with 280 passing yards per game.
Tulsa –
Tulsa sixth year HC Scottie Montgomery arrived at Tulsa in 2015 fresh off a six-year run as the OC of Art Briles’ dominant Baylor offense. In his first two seasons, Tulsa averaged 39.8 PPG and 517 yards of offense as the Golden Hurricane finished with a 10-3 record in 2016. Since then HC Montgomery, who calls his own plays, has posted only seven wins in the last three seasons. Tulsa’s offensive production has fallen to 25.2 PPG and 399 YPG over the last two seasons as Montgomery searched for continuity in the QB room.
In 2019 Tulsa added former highly-touted Baylor QB recruit, Zach Smith, as a transfer which has changed the entire dynamic of the Tulsa passing game. Their passing yards shot up from an average of 175 PYPG in 2017-18, to 281 PYPG under Smith’s guidance last season. Even with the 100+ yard year-over-year improvement, there is ample room for further growth in the passing game. For instance, Smith was victimized by 39 dropped passes by his wide receivers. This led to Smith owning the highest drop percentage, 9.1%, of any returning QB in the FBS.
In fact, the most prolific culprit was WR1 Keylon Stokes who caught 62-of-99 targets for 1,040 yards and six touchdowns but also had the dubious distinction of leading the entire FBS with 13 drops in 75 catch opportunities. He was joined in futility by WR4 Josh Johnson who dropped 12-of-66 catch opportunities and WR3 Keenen Johnson who dropped 6-of-his-46 catchable targets.
By contrast, WR2 Sam Crawford (6’1/205) only dropped 3-of-62 catch opportunities, reeling in 59 receptions for 777 yards and 5 TD. Crawford’s role expanded as the season progressed and Smith’s trust grew in him. He received 42 targets in his last five games as the preferred outside receiving option while Stokes lined up almost exclusively in the slot.
In 2018 Louisiana Tech WR Adrian Hardy led the nation with 13 drops in 83 catch opportunities. He went from a line of 75 recs on 127 targets/1,145 yds/6 TD in 2018 to 42 recs on 76 targets/533 yds/1 TD. I am fading Stokes’ sky-high price (WR30-35 ADP) and picking up the more dependable Crawford much later in my drafts.
Entrenched starting RB Shamari Brooks (227/1,046/6 TD) rushed for 2,013 yards over the past two seasons as the Golden Hurricane RB1 and will once again eclipse the 1,000-yard marker. The offensive line returns four starters and 65 career line starts which is a drastic improvement from last year when they returned just two starters and 27 starts.
I’m expecting at least a touchdown per game scoring increase with the potential for HC Montgomery to produce Tulsa’s first 300 YPG passer since 2015.
UAB –
From a wins/losses perspective, you simply cannot say enough about the job HC Bill Clark has done at UAB. Since restarting their program in 2017 Clark has amassed a sterling 28-13 record while coming off back-to-back CUSA title game appearances. However, for CFF purposes UAB only averaged 23.1 PPG and 352 YPG last season as injuries took their toll on their promising offense. In their first 6 games against FBS opponents, UAB tallied at least 33+ points, 412+ total yards, and 260+ yards passing in five of them.
However, in their eighth contest against Tennessee QB Tyler Johnston was injured. The ramifications to UAB’s passing game were severe as the Blazers would not pass for more than 187 yards from that point forward. They went on to score 20 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games to close out the regular season. A healed Johnston returned to form in their bowl loss to Appalachian State, completing 22-of-34 passes for 298 yards and a 2/1 ratio against a top-notch G5 defense.
This year UAB returns nine starters overall with 4 starting offensive linemen from a group that has 61 career starts and six different players with starting experience. Tyler Johnston finished his abbreviated season completing 147-of-249 passes for 2,250 yards, a 59 percent completion percentage and a 17/15 ratio. He also pitched in 247 rushing yards and a touchdown, a total that should be in the 400-yard range over a full season, as he rushed for 359 yards in 2018.
Two of his top three wide receivers return including WR1 and major deep-threat, Austin Watkins. Watkins led all FBS wide receivers in deep targets last year with 42. He also boasts the second most receptions of 20+ yards of all returning FBS wideouts with 16. Given the setbacks the passing game suffered due to Johnston’s injury, it’s fair to speculate that Watkins could improve upon his already impressive 2019 line of 57 receptions on 94 targets, 1,092 yards, 19.2 YPC and six touchdowns. Myron Mitchell (34/554/16.3 YPC/4 TD) should also see a boost in targets with the departure of last year’s WR2 Kendall Parham and is a worthwhile speculative shot in deep formats.
Having rushed for 2,543 yards and 26 touchdowns in his first two campaigns, Spencer Brown was the clear lead back for the Blazers. Brown was maintaining his usual 20-carry per-game load when he was injured on his first carry against Rice week 6. The concerns here are that Brown was only averaging a modest 67.5 YPG with three total touchdowns in the four games prior to the injury. Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. Keep in mind UAB played Alabama St., Akron, South Alabama, and Western Kentucky in those four contests. I think it’s fair to say UAB’s off-conference slate was favorable for CFF purposes.
Brown posted only one 100-yard rushing performance last year as his production declined upon his return. His absence opened the door for a shared backfield to fill the gap in production. Underclassmen Luscious Stanley and converted freshman WR Jermaine Brown each rushed for 400 yards and foreshadowed a promising future at the RB position. The presence of these two talented up and comers should allow UAB to avoid overworking Brown. He received 250 carries at a 5.3 YPC clip in 2017 and 272 carries at a reduced 4.5 YPC average in 2018. Factor in Brown’s 2019 YPC of 3.9 YPC in 151 carries and the YPC regression trend is evident.
With better injury luck in the backfield, UAB will field their most potent CFF offense since 2014 when the Blazers posted 33.2 PPG and 432 YPG.
USF –
I wanted to go a little outside of the box with my last G5 team, as I have to admit that I’m intrigued by a retooling USF this year. Predictably South Florida cratered to 4-8 last season as former HC Charlie Strong ran out of the previous regime’s recruits. In light of this year’s paltry 20.8 PPG/331 YPG averages, it’s easy to forget that USF scored 43.8 PPG (!) in 2016 and 38.3 PPG as recently as 2017.
The Bulls’ athletic department made the smart decision to jettison re-tread HC Strong. They went young by hiring renowned 39-year old Clemson OC Jeff Scott. He in turn went even younger and brought in 26-year old FAU OC Charlie Weiss Jr. who led the Owls offense to averages of 36.4 PPG/449 YPG last year.
Offensively the Bulls will look to improve substantially on their 170 passing yards per game average last season, as new OC Weiss’ FAU offense averaged 283 YPG in 2019. The leading USF receiver last year was TE Mitchell Wilcox with 28 recs/350 yds/5 TD. NIU transfer TE Mitchell Brinkman will be featured as well, as FAU TE Hunter Bryant recorded the only 1,000-yard season by a tight end in 2019.
Freshman sensation WR Randall St. Felix started 10 games as a true freshman in 2018, catching 33-of-59 targets for 679 yards and a 20.6 YPC. Last season St. Felix’s production plummeted to 22 recs on 48 targets for 261 yards and an 11.9 YPC. I expect to see him and Michigan transfer WR Eddie McDoom’s production to rise with a more explosive system in place.
Under center, 2018 top-50 QB recruit Jordan McCloud took over the starting job from deposed senior QB Blake Barnett against Georgia Tech and never looked back. McCloud was the only scholarship quarterback on the roster after Barnett got injured. However, this year UNC transfer Cade Fortin along with Alcorn State transfer and SWAC POY Noah Johnson will challenge McCloud for the starting job. It should be noted that FAU’s QB, Chris Robison, accounted for 3,701 passing yards and a 28/6 ratio last season under OC Weiss. Robison’s passing yardage total ranks as the fourth most among returning FBS quarterbacks and I don’t think it’s necessary to regale you with reams of data supporting new HC Scott’s quarterback production at Clemson. I’m very interested in the eventual QB job winner for dynasty purposes.
The offense returns seven starters overall to go with three offensive linemen who have started 64 games between them. USF’s rushing production has been steadily dropping for the last four years. Beginning with averages of 6.5 YPC and 285 YPG in 2016, South Florida fell all the way to 4.3 YPC and 161 YPG last season. Oregon grad transfer Darrian Felix gives the RB room a shot in the arm, as USF replaces graduated leading rusher Jordan Cronkrite and his 687 yds/5.1 YPC/4 TD. Johnny Ford is diminutive at 5’5/180, but he recorded 19 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns while also pitching in 13 receptions for 149 yards and another two touchdowns in the air in only four games played due to a violation of team rules suspension. We could see Ford eclipse the 787 yards and 6.8 YPC he posted in 2018 if he can avoid any future missteps.
There is enough talent on this team that I think USF could have a Louisville-like surge behind the new coaching staff and the creative offensive minds who are leading it. I’m predicting a jump to 2018 levels of production when USF scored 28.5 PPG while averaging 438 total yards per game. I’m even more excited about what this offense can produce in 2021 when HC Scott and OC Weiss’ system is in place and ready to make a run at the AAC.
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