Grading Pre-Season 2023 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

We are now a week out from the end of the 2023 fantasy football season. From the end of June 2023 through the end of July, I made one bold prediction per team in each division. It’s time to look back on the 2023 fantasy football season and those predictions. I’ll be giving each bold prediction a grade and simple, corresponding values:

A = 5 points, B = 4, C = 3, D = 2, F = 0

Then, I’ll take the total score, divide it by 32 ( the number of teams and predictions) and give myself a grade for the season.

This is meant to be a fun exercise. Feel free to applaud, make fun of, or pity each prediction along the way. I’ll be grading myself and seeing how I did as a whole by the end of this piece. The goal, as always, was to have fun which is at the very core of this game we play. I just hope I made some league-wining takes and not so many league-losing mistakes along the way. Here we go!

Grading Each Bold Prediction from the 2023 Fantasy Football Preseason

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals: James Conner logs 300 or more total touches

I’m giving myself an average score for this bold prediction considering James Conner missed four games due to injury. In 12 active games, Conner logged 204 total touches. That’s an average of 17 per game which, over a full season, paces for 272 total. I still believe in a fully healthy season, Conner nears 300 total touches. Either way, he was always a cheap, volume-based option for the 2023 season. If you did have Conner on your roster, he likely won you your league, too. James Conner finished as the RB11, RB4, and RB4 respectively during the fantasy football playoffs on an average of 20.3 touches per game.

Grade: C

Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua ranks inside the top five in total yards among rookie wide receivers

This is easily my biggest hit amongst my summer series of 2023 bold predictions. Little did I know, that after 17 weeks, Puka Nacua would rank inside the top five in total yards…amongst ALL players! Nacua needs just 28 yards in Week 18 to set a record for most receiving yards by a rookie in NFL history. To be fair, Nacua’s rookie campaign exceeded my expectations, but he was one of the top players on my radar to be a key waiver wire pickup this season just in case something like this were to happen.

Grade: A

San Francisco 49ers: George Kittle finishes outside the top-12 tight ends

George Kittle is the 2023 season’s TE6 on a points-per-game basis. However, his 12.7 points per game is his lowest since his rookie season in 2017. I didn’t expect Kittle to finish second in target amongst 49ers, but with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel missing a combined three games, it’s not totally surprising. In games without either Aiyuk or Samuel, Kittle averaged nine targets per game finishing as the TE3, TE8, and TE2 respectively. Regardless, the entire Niners offense, including Kittle, were great picks this season. Fading any of them was a mistake. Expecting George Kittle to finish as anything other than a TE1 in fantasy football is an even bigger mistake.

Grade: D

Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet outscores Kenneth Walker

This bold prediction was not meant to be an anti-Walker take, but rather to make sure you left your drafts with Charbonnet stashed on the bench. It turns out Charbonnet likely clogged your bench all season long. However, Charbonnet played just 26 fewer snaps than Walker this season. That includes playing more snaps in four of nine games both were active in after the Seahawks’ Week 5 bye. Unfortunately, we don’t play in points-per-snaps fantasy football leagues. So, while my expectations of Charbonnet seeing more passing game usage, with 38 targets to Walker’s 31, the rookie logged 99 fewer carries and scored 92.2 fewer fantasy points. Let’s hope the 2023 second-round pick sees more usage in 2024.

Grade: F

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos: Samaje Perine rushes for over 1,000 yards

Luckily this bold prediction didn’t cost you anything. Samaje Perine was one of my favorite handcuff running backs entering the 2023 season. With Javonte Williams returning from a major knee injury, I expected Perine, who signed a two-year/$7.5 million deal in the offseason, to rotate in steadily, especially early on. Instead, Jaleel McLaughlin, a 5’8″, 187-pound, undrafted rookie running back took on the role. Perine finished the fantasy football season fourth in carries on the Broncos behind Williams, McLaughin, and even quarterback Russell Wilson.

Grade: F

Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce catches a career-high 13 touchdowns

Patrick Mahomes’ 27 touchdowns in 16 games this fantasy football season is his worst scoring output through the air since he became the starter. He threw 26 in 2019, but in just 14 games, and has no less than 37 passing touchdowns in any other season. So, it shouldn’t come as a shock that this bold prediction did not hit. Travis Kelce is likely to record his lowest yardage total since Mahomes became the starter. If he doesn’t score a touchdown in Week 18, he will finish with five for the season, his lowest total since 2019. Though he is the overall TE1 in fantasy football, he was not worth the first-round draft capital some managers spent to build their roster around.

Grade: F

Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams logs less than 1,000 receiving yards

Heading into Week 18, Davante Adams has 1,098 receiving yards. Prior to an overall WR2 finish in Week 17, with 126 receiving yards, Adams was heading into the fantasy finals with just 972 for the season. We can only hope Adams is playing elsewhere in 2024. The combination of Jimmy Garappolo, rookie Aidan O’Connell, and Brian Hoyer under center isn’t any help to Adams’ fantasy value. Adams has just four games inside the top-12 wide receivers this season and seven as the WR30 or worse.

Grade: B

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert finishes as a top-three quarterback

This bold prediction is one marred by injuries. Through the first four weeks of the season, Justin Herbert was the QB1 averaging a league-high 24.2 points per game. Then he broke his middle finger on his non-throwing hand. Herbert would go on to play nine more games before fracturing the index finger on his throwing hand in the second quarter of Week 14. If you remove that game from his 2023 resume, he is the QB5 on a points-per-game basis. Herbert has eight games of 19.1 or more fantasy points from this season. Hopefully, you were able to find a top streamer to replace him with, like Joe Flacco, to finish the season. A new coach and some new playmakers should have Herbert slated for a big 2024 season. He likely won’t come with a significant price tag, either, following another season of minor injuries.

Grade: B

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: Brandin Cooks makes his first-ever Pro Bowl

We now know Brandin Cooks will not be heading to the Pro Bowl. However, that shouldn’t take away from his fantasy value. After an injury-riddled start to his first season with the Dallas Cowboys, Cooks turned in six top-30 finishes at wide receiver in his final 11 games. That includes four top-20 finishes as high as the overall WR3 in Week 10. Even so, Cooks was nothing more than a matchup-based streamer. I expected far more from him on one of the league’s top-three scoring offenses.

Grade: F

New York Giants: Darren Waller finishes as the top fantasy tight end

I knew this bold prediction was a big whiff, but even I was surprised to see Waller finish as the TE13 on a points-per-game basis. Waller missed five full games due to injury in his first season with the Giants. While it may be appropriate to give me a mulligan here for that, I can’t ignore the fact that many faded Waller because of his injury history. He now has back-to-back seasons with hamstring injuries that caused him to miss significant time prior to November. I still think Waller was worth the investment as the projected top target on this New York Giants offense. His 68 targets this season rank second on the team behind Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton who both had 72.

Grade: F

Philadelphia Eagles: Rashaad Penny logs 1,000 rushing yards

This is easily my biggest miss of this bold prediction series. After 17 weeks, Rashaad Penny has 17 rushing yards. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift rushed for a career-high 1,049 yards. If you recall, the preseason depth chart had Swift, Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott all listed as the starter. In fact, in Week 1, Gainwell led the way with 14 carries to Swift and Scott’s one each. I always thought Swift was the best value in this backfield, but didn’t expect just five total carries for Penny this season. He was probably one of the most dropped players after Week 1 or 2 this season.

Grade: F

Washington Commanders: Antonio Gibson ranks inside the top-five in running back receptions

Gibson ranks 14th overall in running back receptions for the 2023 fantasy football season. However, that’s just 11 total receptions from hitting on this bold prediction and finishing inside the top-five. With Eric Bieniemy taking over as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator, I expected Gibson to assume a “Jerick McKinnon role” from Bieniemy’s offense in Kansas City. Instead, Washington targeted 15 different players this season including six different running backs.

Grade: D

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid draws 100 or more targets

Kincaid falls just 17 targets shy of this bold prediction with 83 during his rookie campaign. That ranks second amongst all Buffalo Bills behind only Stefon Diggs. This was based on the idea that Kincaid would line up as the Bills’ slot receiver most of the time. Prior to this season, Josh Allen had targeted a player 100+ times on seven different occasions. Cole Beasley, his slot receiver from 2019-2021 accounts for three of those times. It’s yet to be seen who all Josh Allen will be throwing to in 2024, but Kincaid, the Bills’ 2023 first-round pick, should remain a top target.

Grade: B

Miami Dolphins: Tyreek Hill records 2,000 receiving yards

Tyreek Hill is going to fall just shy of logging 2,000 receiving yards for the first time in NFL history. Prior to Week 14, Hill was averaging 123 receiving yards per game pacing for 2,098 yards on the season. Unfortunately, he sustained an ankle injury in that game, missed Week 15, and sits at 1,717 yards heading into Week 18. Still, the purpose of this bold prediction was to emphasize the massive year Hill was going to have. His 23.7 points per game average (WR1) and 30% target share say it all.

Grade: B

New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson finishes as a top-three running back

I’m not sure Rhamondre Stevenson is ever going to be the RB1 we all hoped he could be. The New England Patriots would need to do a complete overhaul in 2024 to believe it can happen. After finishing as the RB13 in 2022, Stevenson started off 2023 with an average of 15.0 points per game over the first two weeks. Unfortunately, New England nose-dived to a league-low 14.6 points per game this season behind the struggles of both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback. Stevenson will likely find himself as a target for “Zero RB” drafters next season.

Grade: F

New York Jets: Garrett Wilson finishes as a top-five wide receiver

This bold prediction hurts the most. I invested my second-round pick in many leagues on Wilson to be a WR1. Unfortunately, this bold prediction was made with Aaron Rodgers playing close to if not all, 17 games this season in mind. He played four snaps before tearing his Achilles. Still, with four different quarterbacks, Wilson logged a second-straight 1,000-yard season. Wilson did manage six top-20 weekly finishes, but none inside the top five. I think Wilson can be a post-hype sleeper in 2024 with many managers feeling sour after this one. Even if he falls to the third round, I consider that a possible discount. The talent is there, he just needs the right opportunity.

Grade: F

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson sets new record for receptions by a rookie running back

Blame Arthur Smith for this failure of a bold prediction. Bijan Robinson finishes tied for ninth in receptions amongst running backs this season, but 40 total receptions shy of Saquon Barkley’s record of 91 from his 2018 rookie campaign. Bijan Robinson averaged just 15.8 touches per game as a rookie. I’m not even that mad about the lack of receiving usage. Robinson rushed just 203 times, an average of 12.68 per game, during the 2023 fantasy football season. That’s criminally low on a team whose head coach was the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans when Derrick Henry won back-to-back rushing titles. I think we all thought Robinson, as the eighth overall pick, could flirt with similar numbers. Maybe next year.

Grade: D

Carolina Panthers: Hayden Hurst finishes as a top-12 tight end

This bold prediction was my attempt at finding a late-round tight end sleeper for the 2023 season. Hurst’s 15.1 points in Week 1 gave me hope. It turns out that is his best fantasy performance of the season. Hurst unfortunately missed most of the regular season with a head injury. Luckily, this is a low-risk bold prediction and Hurst was an obvious cut for plenty of other streamers throughout the season.

Grade: F

New Orleans Saints: Kendre Miller scores the most points per game amongst Saints running backs

I still believe Kendre Miller has a bright future in this league. He battled injuries all season long appearing in just seven games. Miller turned just 37 touches in 194 total yards with a touchdown of any kind. Obviously this bold prediction is a big flop, but it probably only took one game with Alvin Kamara back on the field to realize it. Miller is someone I would try to buy low ahead of the 2024 season in dynasty formats.

Grade: F

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White finishes top-five in receptions amongst running backs

Finally! A good call! I love a bell cow running back and Rachaad White is just that. Upon the exit of Leonard Fournette this offseason, White assumed the lead back role in Tampa playing 78% of the offensive snaps this season. Additionally, White handled 75% of the carries amongst all Buccaneers’ backs. More importantly, White’s 60 receptions in 2023, during the fantasy football season, ranks fourth amongst all running backs. Even with 50 of his own last season, White was always going to eat into the 77 Fournette left behind! Assuming Tampa Bay doesn’t add a significant addition to this backfield, White should rank comfortably inside the top-15 amongst the position next season.

Grade: A

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans: Robert Woods finishes as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver

The big winner here is Robert Woods’ agent. This bold prediction is a classic case of following the money. After signing a two-year, $15.25 million deal, with $10 million guaranteed, I thought for sure that Woods was going to lead this team in targets. Instead, Nico Collins had his third-year breakout and rookie Tank Dell exploded onto the scene, as well. In fact, Woods’ 75 targets through 17 weeks is the same number as Dell, who broke his leg in Week 13. That tells you all you need to know about this bold prediction. It’s safe to say Robert Woods’ days of providing consistent, adequate fantasy football production are over.

Grade: F

Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson finishes outside the top 24 quarterbacks in points per game

If you look back at this bold prediction, it has everything to do with when fantasy managers would even feel comfortable starting Richardson when he gets the shot to play. Most likely, in 1QB leagues, Richardson sat on the bench (or waiver wire) during his 21.9-point Week 1 debut. After that, managers got 17.7 from him in Week 2, nothing in Week 3 due to injury, 29.6 in Week 4, and just 4.4 in Week 5 as he exited with a season-ending injury. He will always have a high floor due to his rushing abilities. In fact, 51% of Richardson’s fantasy points are a result of his rushing yards and notable four rushing scores. As a result, he ranks as the QB14 on a points per game basis in very limited play. With even just two fewer rushing touchdowns, he would have a 15.4 points per game average as the RB24. I’m sure if Jonathan Taylor was available early on, that may have been the case.

Grade: C

Jacksonville Jaguars: Calvin Ridley logs career-high targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns

Calvin Ridley finishes the 2023 fantasy football season with 70 receptions, 910 yards, and seven touchdowns on 126 targets. All are the second-best numbers of his career in each stat except the touchdown total. Even so, Calvin Ridley’s return to football leaves many fantasy managers frustrated. Though he had five top-12 weekly fantasy finishes, he also had eight as the WR44 or worse. That is the definition of a boom-or-bust player. To make matters worse, Ridley was drafted multiple rounds ahead of Christian Kirk who averaged just a half of a point per game less than Ridley this season. So, while this bold prediction falls a bit short, the magnitude of the miss is much larger.

Grade: C

Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry finishes outside the top 12 running backs

I don’t know how bold of a prediction this truly is, but it was my way of expecting a slight downfall of King Henry in fantasy football this season. His 14.1 points per game land him as the RB16 on a points-per-game basis this season. It’s his lowest per-game average since 2018. He hasn’t scored lower than 18.0 points per game in any season since. Henry had a fine season, but this bold prediction was meant to deter managers from using their first-round pick on him. A lot of this has to do with their offensive line, but it’s clear the Titans knew he couldn’t sustain a heavy workload anymore as evidenced by the 13.5 carries per game average, too. That’s way down from the 22.7 per game average in four seasons prior.

Grade: A

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears: Roschon Johnson leads Bears running backs in total touches

I always expected the Bears backfield to operate as a committee. This bold prediction was never about Roschon Johnson hype, but rather knocking the value of D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert, both of whom were getting drafted ahead of Johnson. The final touch tally following Week 17 is as follows: Herbert 138, Foreman 120, Johnson 110. More importantly, no Bears running back averaged more than 10.1 fantasy points per game nor scored more than 107 total fantasy points. So, while Johnson finishes third in total touches, the basis for this bold prediction holds true that none of the Bears’ backs held any legitimate value for any extended period of time. They are all extremely touchdown-dependent with a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields.

Grade: C

Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs averages 20.0+ PPR points per game

My fandom for Jahmyr Gibbs has no bounds. Though his 16.7 points per game falls short of my bold prediction, it’s the thought that counts. After sustaining a hamstring injury prior to Week 5, we didn’t see Gibbs again until Week 7. When we did, he finally broke out finishing the season as RB3 from that point on with 19.4 points per game. He will easily find himself inside the first round of almost every 2024 fantasy draft. Maybe my bold prediction for him was one year too early!

Grade: B

Green Bay Packers: A.J. Dillons logs 250+ touches, rushes for 1,000+ yards, sets a career-high in rushing touchdowns

Nope, nope, and nope. If Dillon was going to be a worthwhile fantasy asset, I truly thought 2023 was going to be it. Not only is it a contract year for Dillon, but I admittedly didn’t know how many touches 28/29-year-old Aaron Jones could handle this season. Even with Jones missing time due to a hamstring injury, the Packers let Jordan Love rip through the air. Dillon did lead the team in attempts (178) and rush yards (613) but for just 3.4 yards per carry and two touchdowns. Green Bay scored just 10 rushing touchdowns through Week 17 with Jordan Love punching in four of them.

Grade: F

Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison repeats Justin Jefferson’s rookie season stats

Even with Justin Jefferson missing significant time due to a hamstring injury, Addison did not rise up to meet this bold prediction. However, a stat line of 66/854/9 as a rookie is nothing to frown upon. That’s 22 receptions and 546 yards shy (with one game to go) of Jefferson’s stellar rookie season, but Jefferson didn’t have to deal with four different quarterbacks throwing his way. We will have to keep an eye on who is the starting quarterback for the Vikings in 2024. However, I expect Minnesota to remain one of the pass-heaviest teams next season which makes Addison a top target of mine in the middle rounds next summer.

Grade: C

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens: J.K. Dobbins rushes fewer than 150 times in double-digit games played

I’m going to void this bold prediction given that Dobbins rushed just eight times in Week 1 before tearing his Achilles. He very well could have proven me wrong as Gus Edwards handled 188 carries through 17 weeks. However, Lamar Jackson had 148 of his own while setting career highs in just about every passing stat. We also saw Justice Hill and rookie Keaton Mitchell mix in, as well. Who knows what would have happened with a healthy season from Dobbins, but I don’t think we’ll ever know with a career full of serious injuries.

Grade: N/A

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow leads the league in pass attempts

Obviously, Joe Burrow’s calf injury, and then his thumb injury, make this bold prediction impossible to hit. However, the Cincinnati Bengals as a team tied for fourth in most pass attempts this season. From Weeks 1 through 17, the Bengals are just 21 pass attempts shy of leading the league. This season did not go as planned for the franchise after losing Burrow and missing the playoffs, but I have the utmost faith they’ll be right back in the mix next season making every piece of their offense valuable for fantasy football, Burrow included.

Grade: C

Cleveland Browns: Amari Cooper sets career-highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns

I’m extremely thankful for Amari Cooper’s Week 16 outburst because he at least hit on the yards portion of this bold prediction. Cooper finished the fantasy football season with a stat line of 72/1,250/5, logging 11 receptions, 256 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 16 alone. He settles in as WR18 which is impressive considering the number of quarterbacks throwing his way this season. Cooper could be a cap casualty of the Browns this offseason, but should get a ton of interest from around the league if he is a free agent. He is a quarterback-proof stud that’s a magnet for targets.

Grade: C

Pittsburgh Steelers: Diontae Johnson scores 10 receiving touchdowns

I don’t think I was wrong about Diontae Johnson’s 2023 touchdown regression, I just didn’t know it was going to start in December! Johnson has just four receiving touchdowns to his name this fantasy football season. That’s actually great considering he scored zero last season. Unfortunately, by the time Johnson started finding the end zone in 2023, most managers were probably leaving him on the bench. Johnson scored a touchdown in three straight games starting in Week 13. He still leads all Steelers in red zone targets, as well as targets inside the 10, but the production, once again, just wasn’t there this season.

Grade: D

Final Thoughts

Overall Grade: D

These are bold predictions for a reason. If I were to score an “A” or even a “B” at the end, either I’m a genius or not thinking bold enough! Luckily, I don’t think many of my self-earned “F” grades were for players that cost you too much this fantasy football season. The point of this exercise is to (usually) think of the greatest possible scenario or outcome for players, even someone like Tyreek Hill to have 2,000 receiving yards. If we can hit on a few of these each season, it can give us an edge over our opponents.

My hope, if you followed along in the summer, is that you got to know the name Puka Nacua or even started paying more attention to Jahmyr Gibbs. Getting those two players on your roster didn’t necessarily cost much, but paid off big time. Overall, there are some hilarious misses here, my favorite being “Rashaad Penny will log 1,000 rush yards.” I’m already excited to run this back in 2024 and hopefully bring home a “C’ average report card to my family! Enjoy the off-season!