In 2023 we saw the result that many people predicted with the rule changes – a major boom in stolen bases. Four players reached 30 home runs and 30 steals last season. That was the most since three players did it in 2019. Only four players went 30/30 in all of 2019-2022 combined. What is even more rare is reaching the 40/40 milestone.
With the outburst in steals from last season, that could mean more players enter the 30/30 club in 2024. Here are a few that could do it.
Potential 30/30 Hitters
Corbin Carroll – ARI OF
Why He Could Go 30/30
Corbin Carroll impressed in his debut season, launching 25 homers while swiping 54 bags. That was second, only to Ronald Acuna Jr.’s 73 steals. Nobody has stolen more than 50 bases since 2016, when Billy Hamilton stole 59 and Dee Strange-Gordon stole 60.
Carroll did an excellent job of getting on base, reaching base 36% of the time. And out of all the times he stole, he was only caught 5 times. Additionally, Fangraphs graded Carroll as the fastest player in the league and gave him the best wSB score in baseball, which measures stolen bases and caught stealing above average.
Judging by his 2023 season, Carroll should easily be able to reach 30 steals again in 2024.
Why He Might Not Go 30/30
What may hold back Carroll from reaching the 30/30 milestone is the home run portion. He hit 25, but did so with just a 7% barrel rate and a 40% HardHit rate. His barrel rate is below league average, while his HardHit rate is just above league average.
There is a chance he gets unlucky with his HR/FB rate, which was 15% last season. If he has any luck there or with his flyball rate, he could fail to reach 30 home runs, considering the lack of hard contact.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – MIA OF
Why He Could Go 30/30
Jazz Chisholm Jr. nearly reached 20/20 in both 2021 and 2023 despite playing in just 124 and 97 games respectively. If injuries had not hampered him, the sky could be the limit.
Jazz has substantial power potential. He had a 12% barrel rate last season and averages an 11% rate for his career. His 41% HardHit rate last season matched his career average.
If Jazz can simply stay healthy, he has the potential to go 30/30. In fact, early projections have him tallying 28 homers and 28 steals – totals he very well could surpass.
Why He Might Not Go 30/30
Injuries have plagued Chisholm’s young career. 124 games is the most Jazz has played in a single season in his career. At some point, he has to be considered injury-prone, and fantasy managers have to figure that into his projections.
Also, Jazz has a subpar .304 OBP and a career 29% K rate. Those issues could also hamper his ability to reach both 30 homers and 30 steals. He has to be able to hit the ball and get on base to tally home runs and steals.
Elly De La Cruz – CIN 3B/SS
Why He Could Go 30/30
The hype around Elly De La Cruz is insane, but he showed why last season, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 35 bases in 427 PAs across 98 games.
De La Cruz flashed a lot of power last season, with an 8.5% barrel rate and a 45% HardHit rate. His abilities have drawn comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr. after EDLC went 28/47 across two levels in the minors in 2022.
Elly also plays in Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.
Why He Might Not Go 30/30
Similar to Chisholm, De La Cruz could suffer from a high strikeout rate and a low OBP. He had a 33% K rate last season, which is in line with his minor-league performance.
He also had a 53% GB rate in 2023. That could be a problem if it repeats in 2024, since groundballs result in outs more often than any other type of batted ball.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – SD OF
Why He Could Go 30/30
Fernando Tatis Jr. was just shy of reaching the 30/30 club in 2023, totaling 25 home runs and 29 steals. He began the season suspended, which could have made the difference in being a 30/30 player and a borderline 30/30 player last season. He also nearly reached the 30/30 club in 2021, hitting 42 homers and swiping 25 bases.
Tatis also hits the ball incredibly hard. He has averaged a 15% barrel rate and a 45% HardHit rate over his career, though those numbers were down last season. Additionally, his HR/FB rate and FB% were down, which could also have suppressed his home run total last season.
Why He Might Not Go 30/30
One reason he might not do it is because he has yet to do it. Despite the hype and potential surrounding him, Tatis has never stolen more than 29 bases in a season.
His shoulder has also partially dislocated multiple times, and because of the type of injury, he carries a constant risk of reinjury.
Kyle Tucker – HOU OF
Why He Could Go 30/30
Kyle Tucker reached 30 home runs in each of 2021 and 2022, falling short of that mark by one home run in 2023. He has increased his steals in every season of his career, reaching 30 last season. If these trends continue, this could be the season where he puts it all together.
Tucker also consistently has excellent hard contact. In each of the last three seasons, he has had a barrel rate between 10% and 11.6% and a HardHit rate between 41% and 47%. He has such a solid floor that could result in his first 30/30 season in 2024.
Why He Might Not Go 30/30
Tucker saw his groundball rate climb to 38% last season, up for the third season in a row. That is a troubling trend and could hurt his chances of getting on base and hitting home runs.
He also has yet to do it and is entering his age 27 season. It could be now or never for Tucker.
Francisco Lindor – NYM SS
Why He Could Go 30/30
I thought Francisco Lindor had a chance at 30 home runs last season after launching at least 30 in each season from 2017-2019. I did not expect his 31 steals. He never tallied more than 25 in a season in his career and picked up 26 in 2021 and 2022 combined. It seems he benefited from the rule changes in 2023, which could help him repeat his feat in 2024.
Lindor saw an uptick in hard contact last season. His 10% barrel rate was a career-best and his 43% HardHit rate was the second-best of his career. He also hit fly balls at a higher rate than ever before. If he can continue hitting the ball hard and in the air, he could reach the 30-homer milestone again.
Why He Might Not Go 30/30
The potential trouble for Lindor will be reaching the 30-steal marker. He had not reached more than 20 steals in a season since 2019, which made last season feel like such a surprise for him. It could very well be an outlier.
He also is not getting any younger. Lindor is entering his age 30 season and could start running less.
Potential 40/40 Hitters
There are also a handful of players who have the potential to reach the 40/40 milestone. This is an incredible accomplishment, and exceedingly rare in today’s game. Before Ronald Acuna Jr., the last player to go 40/40 was Alfonso Soriano in 2006.
Ronald Acuna Jr – ATL OF
Why He Could Go 40/40
There are very few players who have the capability not just to hit 40 home runs, but steal 40 bases. Ronald Acuna Jr. did it last season, hitting 41 home runs and stealing 73 bases. He also came close in 2019, missing the mark by three steals. It was such a historic season, but he could legitimately do it again. Acuna possesses immense power. He has never ended a season with a barrel rate under 12% or a HardHit rate under 46%. And aside from 2022, his HR/FB rate has never been below 20%. So not only does he hit the ball hard, but he hits it in the air, and consistently hits it out of the park.
Prior to 2023, the last player to steal 70 bases or more was Jacoby Ellsbury, who swiped 70 in 2009. But Acuna topped that with 73 last season. Another year removed from knee surgery could mean Acuna leads the league in steals again.
Why He Might Not Go 40/40
Acuna has played 120 games or more in just two of five seasons (not counting 2020). Staying healthy is his only barrier to reaching the 40/40 club again.
Of all the players on this list, Acuna is most likely to reach 40/40.
Bobby Witt Jr – KC SS
Why He Could Go 40/40
Bobby Witt Jr. stole 49 bases in 2023 and hit 30 home runs. That is an increase of 10 home runs and 19 steals from 2022 in just 62 PAs across 8 more games. Witt made significant improvements that led to more chances to steal because he was on base more. He improved his walk and strikeout rates, and improved his OBP. He also was the third fastest runner in baseball according to Fangraphs.
Witt also made some improvements to increase his home run total. He improved his barrel rate to 11% and his HardHit rate to 45%. That resulted in an improved HR/FB rate more in line with his minor league data. He averaged a 19% HR/FB rate between AA and AAA in 2021, but it was just 9% for the Royals in his rookie season and 13% last season. Making a few more adjustments and getting a little more fortunate could allow Witt to add a few more home runs and enter the 40/40 club.
Why He Might Not Go 40/40
All signs point to Witt being able to reach 40 steals again next season. In fact, he was caught stealing 15 times last season, which led the league. So even a small improvement there should mean he easily reaches 40 steals.
Witt may not go 40/40 because he may not get up to 40 home runs. Could he jump up 10 home runs again in his third season? Sure. But is it likely? No.
Julio Rodriguez – SEA OF
Why He Could Go 40/40
Julio Rodriguez hit 28 homers and had 25 steals in 132 games in his rookie season, just missing out on the 20/20 mark. He ended his 2023 campaign with 32 homers and 37 steals across 155 games in 2023. This is an excellent floor, and even small adjustments could result in a 40/40 season for the young star.
Rodriguez has averaged a 12% barrel rate and a 51% HardHit rate across his first two campaigns. He also does a solid job of getting on base, averaging a .338 OBP. If he can continue to trend in the right direction in those areas, he could see a 40/40 season in 2024.
Why He Might Not Go 40/40
Rodriguez needs to improve his contact rate. It was just 71% in 2022, which was 11th worst in baseball among all qualified batters. He was slightly better last season, with a 73% contact rate, improving him to 29th worst in the league.
Rodriguez also tends to put the ball on the ground quite often. He had a 46% GB rate in 2022 and a 47% GB rate in 2023. Those could present issues that keep him from reaching both 40 homers and 40 steals in 2024.
40/40 and even 30/30 seasons are few and far between, but these are the batters who have the best shot at reaching those targets in 2024.