2024 Fantasy Baseball: How Important is Position Scarcity?

In my previous post on 3 Rebound Candidates for 2024, I mentioned value as something fantasy baseball managers look for in addition to positional needs being met. In this post, we’ll break down the “needs” portion as we look at position scarcity and how to deal with it in fantasy baseball drafts.

First, when you think about “needs,” it’s important to distinguish simple needs vs. position scarcity. Understanding the difference between simply filling position needs versus understanding positional scarcity is something that gives veteran fantasy managers an edge in drafts.

How Important is Position Scarcity in Fantasy Baseball Drafts?

Suppose you were completely unprepared for a fantasy baseball draft. Given the circumstances, what would you do? Most likely, you would see your empty roster:

• Catcher:
• First Base:
• Second Base:
• etc.

and draft the highest-ranked player available each turn through the order. Doing so would net you some version of a starting roster with a cascading order of:

• Best First Basemen – Drafted him in the first round
• 2nd Best Shortstop – Drafted him in the second round
• 5th Best Third Basemen – There were higher-ranked players at other positions but you felt the need seeing third basemen quickly going off the board
• 2nd Best Catcher – Came back in the 4th round and was able to snag an “elite” catcher
• etc…

With these considerations, let’s start a mock draft to consider how you should consider position scarcity during a fantasy baseball draft.

The Mock Draft

For the sake of simplicity, the following mock draft will not include pitching, have no utility position, and OF slots are specific to each position (no general “OF”).

Objective: A 10-team fantasy baseball draft is about to begin, and you’re trying to fill out a roster that is simply 8 spots – C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / LF / CF / RF  Remember the goal is to fill this out in an optimal fashion giving you the best offensive team possible. This is where position scarcity comes into play.

In a world where you know nothing but the ranking of a player, the goal would be to draft the highest-ranked player at each position. However, in the real world, the distance between the best player and the 10th player (or even the 11th, 12th, etc. best player) is not going to be equal from position to position. This creates a situation where having the fourth-best third baseman is far more valuable than having the fourth-best first baseman.

Position Scarcity is why you often hear about Tiers in fantasy baseball rankings. If the fourth-best center fielder and the seventh-best center fielder are in the same Tier, then there is no need to rush to grab the fourth-best when you can wait for a later round.

With all that information, let’s put to test position scarcity using real-life data. Below is a simple grid I made using Fantrax projected data for 5×5 roto scoring. I laid out the eight necessary positions and listed the Top 15 players for each position. I placed lines to indicate where intuitive Tier breaks occur based on the projected roto score:

In this exercise, we’ll suppose this is a 10-team snake draft, where you have the sixth pick.

Round 1, Pick 6

The first round will be relatively easy, as each Tier 1 player goes off the board. You are fortunate to draft Mookie Betts (LAD – OF/2B), who not only gives you a premier second baseman but positional flexibility as well.

From here let’s fast forward to Round 4, where position scarcity will finally come into play.

Round 4, Pick 5

Players continue to go off the board in order of strength. You have taken Austin Riley (ATL – 3B) and Aaron Judge (NYY – RF) to cover positional needs, and this brings you to a decision point;

Study the board closely. At this point, you still need to fill 5 positions – Catcher, 1B, SS, LF, CF. The highest-scoring player remaining overall is Teoscar Hernandez (FA – RF) but you already have two right fielders in Betts and Judge. Michael Harris II (ATL – CF) is the fourth-highest-ranking center fielder, but there are many similar players at or around his scoring tier. This brings our attention to Christian Walker (ATL – 1B), who presents the biggest opportunity cost to be passed up because he is the last remaining player in his Tier. Missing Walker will mean you will likely end up with a lower-scoring first basemen.

There you have it, you’ve properly assessed position scarcity and have managed to select a player that will set you up for the next pick, and the rest of the draft will follow a similar flow. The most important aspect of all this is being properly prepared. Having a definitive ranking that you are confident in will avoid draft day panic and rash decisions.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.