One of my favorite exercises, Player A vs. Player B. Who do you prefer from a numbers perspective?
| Player | Score | H/AB | H | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | XBH | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 87.55 | 163/574 | 163 | 97 | 29 | 112 | 30 | 0.369 | 71 | 157 |
| Player B | 87.19 | 172/608 | 172 | 127 | 54 | 139 | 1 | 0.389 | 84 | 162 |
Valuing Steals vs. Home Runs in 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts
To some of us, these above stat lines are immediately recognizable. We’re not talking about some hidden players here, these are very clearly two of the most dynamic players in the league and are being drafted as such in 2024. The point I want to make is within the variances between their respective stats. Player B finished 2023 with far more runs, RBI, homers, and extra base hits. He played more games, resulting in more plate appearances and hits, as well as a higher OBP to boot. The only category Player A takes here is steals, resulting in the below ratings by Fantrax.
Player A – Kyle Tucker, 87.55 rating
Player B – Matt Olson, 87.19 rating
At a glance, I’d gladly take the additional counting stats that Olson provides over the steals that Tucker does, especially with the new rule changes implemented last year. If steals are easier to come by, the value of the best power hitter in the league is elevated. More players are contributing to the steals category, but a 50 home run season with league leading RBI totals is now even more beneficial to a roster, right? Logically yes, but Fantrax thinks otherwise, as Player A Tucker still beats out Player B Olson. Why?
The Case for Kyle Tucker
The idea is this: Kyle Tucker contributes meaningfully in TWO stats. Matt Olson only contributes to one. While steals are more accessible, they still don’t outnumber home run totals. You’re not going to find guaranteed power/speed threats late in drafts, but you can find one stat sluggers or speedsters. It’s easier to replace the 20+ homer gap between these players than it is to replace the 30-SB gap. Tucker wins because of this, and should be drafted ahead of Olson in 2024. It’s easier to get your 30-30 threat in the first round and power later in the draft than it is the other way around.
The Case for Matt Olson
The other side of this coin relates to strategy revolving around overloading your roster with homers. Home runs result in other counting stats 100% of the time, steals do not. In recent years as steals became harder and harder to find, this strategy became more prevalent. Overwhelm all hitting stats except one. Matt Olson is the safest player in 2024 for this approach, which is still viable since as I mentioned above, steals are still harder to come by than homers.
All these points in mind, there unfortunately isn’t an objective answer. A lot of player valuation/preference comes down to your specific roster make-up and this is obviously specific to each manager. There’s also the positional aspect of this that we are ignoring intentionally. Historically you’d prefer a dual threat outfielder to a first baseman. Positions are not part of the Fantrax player rating system. And another thing to consider, 99% of managers won’t have to choose between these two players on draft day. Their performances last year have ensured they are both worthy first round talents.
So on Draft Day…
We’re done splitting hairs here. Steals are still not as prevalent as Homers. Sprint speed is the rarer tool. Savvy base running is the lesser appreciated skill. Players who have these skills in addition to power hitting should be valued over those who don’t. This is nothing new to fantasy managers. However, the gap between valuations of each stat, steals and homers, is the narrowest it’s been in the last half decade. You can get away with an early draft pick being one dimensional more so than recent years. This will result in 2024 drafts being more competitive, so be prepared and study up ahead of time!
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.