After an exciting finish with 5 golfers all within a stroke of winning in Detroit, the PGA Tour heads to arguably one of the weakest fields of 2024. The John Deere Classic, hosted at TPC Deere Run, falls victim to a difficult spot on the schedule once again. Virtually every notable golfer has opted to skip a trip to Silvis, Illinois for an extra week of travel overseas. Next week’s Scottish Open has gotten to be a premier event on the PGA schedule, and the John Deere Classic suffers for it. With Patrick Cantlay’s withdrawal, Jordan Spieth could be considered the only big time name that has decided to give TPC Deere Run a go… but even then, is he a big-time name anymore? He has more missed cuts than finishes inside the Top 40 over the last 4 months!
Even with a weak field, the John Deere Classic is nothing to shrug at. For whatever reason, whether if it’s because the removal of the game’s best opens the door for more guys or just the nature of the course, we are almost guaranteed for an exciting finish on Sunday. Last year, we saw Sepp Straka shoot a 73 on Thursday, and then follow it up with a 63-65-62 finish to steal it. I don’t mind us missing all the firepower once in a while, because that opens it up for a long-shot winner. This is a great week to branch out and find a first-time winner!
The Course: TPC Deere Run
The par 71 course typically plays around 7,200 yards but plays slightly longer than what that yardage would suggest. The course features plenty of tree-lined doglegs and undulating fairways that will require layups and different shot shapes. Distance won’t be an issue for any of these golfers, but I don’t want the low yardage to misconstrue you into looking solely for bombers. All types of golfers have won here, I would suggest taking a balanced outlook rather than focusing on a specific archetype of golfer.
It will ultimately come down to approach and putting performance as per usual. Fairways and greens are fairly large compared to Tour standards, so it is wide open for the taking. I will value current form in these 2 categories more than anything else because stacking up birdie looks and knocking in putts is the only way to score enough to win at TPC Deere Run. Golfers will need to get around the -20 for a chance to come out on top. Let’s take a look at 3 golfers I think are worth a bet to win this thing!
Best Bets: John Deere Classic
Denny McCarthy (+2500)
Denny McCarthy has been knocking on the door for his first Tour win for quite some time, and I think he might finally break through this week at TPC Deere Run. He’s played well here in the past, and it’ll only take 1 good week with his irons to get the job done because you know his putter will be locked as per usual.
I say that last point with so much confidence for one reason: Denny McCarthy is probably the best putter in the world. He’s gained strokes on the green in 14 of his 16 events this year, but it’s the amount he gains each given week that is more impressive. It’s not like he’s barely making it into the pluses. McCarthy typically gains 5 to 6 strokes on the field like clockwork. If his ball-striking was even just average, he’d be winning a lot more money than he is currently. He’s finished T6 in back-to-back years at The John Deere Classic, and he did so last year while losing strokes Approaching the Green. It takes an unbelievable performance everywhere else to go -16 and finish T6 while not striking the ball well.
For a golfer like Denny McCarthy, a week that he hits the ball 50th best in the field could finish with a win. It hasn’t happened for him yet, but given the weak field and history at TPC Deere Run, I think it’s worth a shot. It feels like Denny is bound to have a good enough week with his irons to finally win on Tour, and this is finally his week. 25-1 might seem a bit low, but I have a strong feeling it will be much lower by the weekend.
Michael Thorbjornsen (+6000)
If you’re disgusted by the 25-1 Denny McCarthy is flaunting, please look away now… Yes, I am suggesting you bet on a 22-year-old rookie in his 3rd professional start. But I have a few reasons why that 60-1 is easier to stomach, and may actually be too high instead of too low!
Firstly, TPC Deere Run has historically been very kind to debutants and young players. The weak fields and easy layout open the winner’s circle to anyone talented enough, regardless of age or experience. Secondly, Michael Thorbjornsen is not your ordinary rookie. He finished 1st in PGA Tour University Rankings, automatically getting his card straight out of college. He’s the second recipient of this promotion, following Ludvig Aberg in 2023. Aberg has had plenty of good things to say about Thorbjornsen, and I believe he will follow Aberg’s early success with his own. Thorbjornsen has the opportunity to play The John Deere Classic in 2023, finishing at a very respectable T17. And that was with losing strokes putting and shooting a 73 on Thursday!
Funnily enough, the short game is where Thorbjornsen has thrived in recent weeks. If he can combine his recent success with his lifelong ball-striking ability, Michael Thorbjornsen is primed to win early in his career. If he can hold form, I will be betting on him until that win comes… it came early for Aberg, and I expect the same for the next-up Thorbjornsen!
Chris Gotterup (+10000)
Chris Gotterup was Thorbjornsen 2 years ago. He was a focus coming out of Oklahoma as the NCAA’s best golfer and probably would have gained Tour status through PGA Tour U if it had existed. Instead, Gotterup had to do it the hard way through Korn Ferry and did just that.
Gotterup is no Ludvig Aberg, but he does have a lot of talent. His biggest asset is his distance, hitting it about 20 yards further than average. While that won’t help a bunch at TPC Deere Run, extra distance is never bad to have. Gotterup’s maiden win came in Myrtle Beach 2 months ago, where he lapped the weak field and won by 6 strokes. He comes into The John Deere Classic in awful form, but I give a lot of blame for the post-win hangover. Following his victory, he missed 3 consecutive cuts and then had 2 finishes in the 60s. His approach and putting can get insanely hot, just like he showed in Myrtle Beach. Something tells me that a weak field like this, on a somewhat easy course, the best will be brought out of Chris Gotterup.
I was shocked to see Gotterup in the triple digits on the betting board. His form is awful, I understand that, but given what he did in a similar event just a few weeks ago, this is a smash spot for me. Oh… and did I mention he finished 4th here in 2022 while losing strokes putting??? All signs point towards a Chris Gotterup DOMINATION and at 100-1! Get this price while you can!