As the California Swing has come to a close, the PGA heads to beautiful Puerto Vallarta, Mexico for the Mexico Open. The newest event on tour will be played at Vidanta Vallarta for a third time, with Tony Finau and Jon Rahm dominating the first 2 renditions. While Rahm will not be here for obvious reasons, Finau is looking to defend his title against a somewhat weak field.
With most of the superstars taking the week off following The Genesis, the field is weak at first glance. However, there are still plenty of quality golfers teeing it up in Mexico. A handful of the DPWT’s best will be competing, along with plenty of new names and faces to the Tour. Let’s take a closer look at what leads to success at Vidanta Vallarta.
The Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Based on how the first two Mexico Opens have gone, those that have found success are very telling. With the course playing close to 7,400 yards, distance is key. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau are about as good as you get striking the ball, with the skill set shining even more the further away the target is. Wedge approach shots are a rarity at Vidanta Vallarta.
The rough is not very penal, meaning golfers will be using drivers on just about every tee shot. Once off the tee, long irons will be used in many cases. While the scoring is considered easy, it won’t be for most. Having extra length will certainly come in handy, so when placing bets, I’d start looking at the big boys first.
Best Bets: Mexico Open
Tony Finau (+750)
I typically hate betting favorites. For a tournament to have 120+ golfers that could win, betting on someone with less than 10/1 odds feels like losing a lot of value to the books. But in some cases, it’s exactly what you should be doing.
This is one of those cases. Tony Finau is by FAR the best player in this field, and it’s not even close. Even if he had no experience here, I would still be backing him. But the fact that he has a win and runner-up finish in the 2 years the event has existed makes him a must-play. To make things even better for Finau bettors, his ball-striking is hotter than hot. While his putting has been struggling, I have no doubt in my mind that will hold him back in Mexico. He gained over 4 strokes putting in his victory in 2023, and had he been average in 2022, he would’ve defeated Jon Rahm.
I believe +750 is a very fair price for the pedigree you’re getting with Tony Finau. He obviously loves playing here, considering he’s the only notable player opting to make the trip. Betting on a favorite will shrink the betting card, but you can feel extremely confident in Tony Finau’s chance to win.
S.H. Kim (+6000)
Seonghyeon Kim is a rising star who has gone unappreciated. He hasn’t found as much success as some of his fellow countrymen, but he’s shown flashes of being an extremely talented golfer. And luckily for S.H., Vidanta Vallarta is the perfect golf course for him.
S.H. Kim hits the ball crazy far. He can get upwards of 20 yards longer than the average professional golfer. His short game has also been the best aspect of his game. He has gained strokes in the short game in all 5 events in 2024. His approach is certainly the weakest point in his game. However, his skill gets better the further he is from the green. This will give his approach game an advantage over the field, which is exactly what Kim needs.
Should S.H. Kim find even a sliver of success with his irons, there is no reason he can’t be in contention. Tony Finau will definitely be difficult to keep up with, but with Kim’s length and hot short game, I believe he could do it. And at 60/1, you’re getting a great price.