Welcome to the Thanksgiving edition of Mick’s Pick Six! While there are only two teams off this week, there is still a major need for Week 12 streamers. Year-to-date fantasy leaderboards are lousy with Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs players. Owners who have ridden these players to this point in the season will be without many of their studs this week. Week 12 is a critical one in many fantasy leagues, so the absence of these players cannot be taken tightly. The good news is that there are plenty of options available. As always, I go position by position, taking matchup and opportunity into account, to highlight my favorite low-percentage plays. Here are my top Week 12 streamers.
Week 12 Streamers
Quarterback
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. San Francisco 49ers
If you have read any of my stuff during the past ten days or so, you have probably heard enough of me arguing for Lamar Jackson as a viable streamer, so I will spare you any more gushing for now. I will focus instead on Jameis Winston. Up until now, the much-maligned Tampa Bay Buccaneer has not been able to stave off journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick for Tampa Bay’s starting gig. That might be as damning as any argument against Winston. But the Bucs appear to have finally gotten their fill of FitzMagic and are again handing over the keys to Winston.
The former number one overall NFL draft pick has not been good this season. He has thrown 11 interceptions on just 164 throws this season. For comparison, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have each been intercepted 10 times in their last 1,000 pass attempts. But interceptions are not nearly as bad in fantasy as they are in real life. Case in point – if you combined Fitzpatrick’s and Winston’s 2018 numbers, they would trail only Patrick Mahomes in total fantasy points, despite pairing up for a hideous 23 interceptions on the year. By and large, Tampa Bay’s attacking passing offense lends itself towards positive fantasy production, and Winston is poised to take full advantage this week against the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco is also playing out the string at this point in the season. The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but two games this year. San Francisco’s defense does not figure to take advantage of any mistakes Winston has proved prone to making. They have forced an NFL-low five turnovers and have intercepted just two of 356 pass attempts against them. Because this game features two inept defenses, there is some serious shootout potential in this matchup of basement dwellers. Even with news of his promotion, Winston is still rostered in just 65 percent of Fantrax leagues and active in just 29 percent, He is an ideal fit for those who have rostered Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff and need a stopgap. Jameis Winston is a borderline QB1 in this matchup and tops my list of Week 12 streamers.
Running Back
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens v. Oakland Raiders
Few were more bullish than me on Alex Collins last week. I loved the matchup against Cincinnati and believed the insertion of Lamar Jackson as the Ravens’ starting quarterback would place a greater emphasis on the run. But then Gus Edwards happened. Such is the nature of our beautiful and frustrating game. Collins managed to salvage his day with a touchdown, but it was Edwards who emerged as last week’s overall RB7. The rookie out of Rutgers easily had the best day of his young career. Edwards had 115 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Coach John Harbaugh understandably praised Edwards and his north and south running style. Edwards figures to be in the mix again this week when Baltimore gets quite possibly an even softer matchup against the Oakland Raiders.
Oakland has allowed an NFL-worst 1,310 yards rushing to opposing running backs this year. The 5.12 yards per carry the Raiders have allowed ranks third-worst in the league. Edwards should find plenty of success against such a soft defensive front. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the most elusive running back in the entire NFL last week. Edwards does not figure to do much in the passing game, but Oakland also allows the highest yards per reception to enemy backs. Easily the week’s most popular waiver wire pickup, he is still rostered in just half of leagues and active in just 16 percent of leagues. Gus Edwards is primed for another big game in Week 12 and should be added and started where available.
Wide Receiver
Adam Humphries, Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. San Francisco 49ers
Adam Humphries has quietly become a fantasy force in recent weeks. Over the last four weeks, Humphries has been the overall WR10 in standard scoring leagues and has come away from each of those games as a fantasy starter. Humphries will look to continue his hot streak when Tampa Bay squares off with San Francisco. I spoke earlier about San Francisco’s shortcomings in pass defense. That deficiency extends to the slot, where Humphries does most of his damage. San Francisco has allowed four primary slot receivers to exceed 100 receiving yards against them. Humphries has yet to hit that mark this year, but he should see plenty of chances in this game.
Humphries continues to be overlooked despite his recent production. His ownership still sits at just 54 percent, and he is active in only 30 percent of leagues. Those numbers are far too low given his recent results and the favorable matchup. The switch back to Jameis Winston at quarterback should only improve the outlook on Humphries. The duo has been in the same offensive system for their entire careers and hooked up on an 8-yard score last week. Humphries has averaged a healthy 7.3 targets and 65 yards in the three games Winston has started and completed this season. Humphries should have another solid week of fantasy production in this matchup. He is one of my favorite Week 12 streamers.
Tight End
Jeff Heuerman, Denver Broncos v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Heuerman has established himself as Denver’s primary tight end following the early-season injury to Jake Butt. Like most tight ends, Heuerman has had his share of down games. But since the recent trade of wide receiver DeMaryius Thomas, it is actually Heuerman who leads the Broncos with 16 targets. Heuerman is the overall TE12 over the last four weeks, particularly noteworthy considering Denver’s Week 10 bye. Heuerman should once again see his fair share of targets when Denver hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12.
Denver likes to establish the run and limit exposure to quarterback Case Keenum, but I do not expect them to have that luxury this week. Pittsburgh has won six in a row and has averaged nearly 33 points per game during that run. The Broncos will have to throw the ball to remain competitive. Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends. Heuerman is still available in 66 percent of leagues and currently active in just 16 percent. He should be a serviceable fill in for those who may have Travis Kelce or O.J. Howard and were unable to secure the services of Cameron Brate.
Kicker
Michael Badgley, Los Angeles Chargers v. Arizona Cardinals
Michael Badgley picked an inopportune time to miss his first kick as his missed extra point proved to the difference in a 23-22 loss last week. Still, Badgley is on relatively firm footing and is attached to a high-scoring offense in Los Angeles. The Chargers have one of the higher implied point totals on this week’s slate and are currently the week’s biggest favorite along with New Orleans Saints. All this means good things should continue to be in store for Badgley, who has scored at least eight fantasy points in all four of his games this year. Badgley is owned in only 22 of leagues, so he is there for the taking for anyone who needs a streamer to replace Greg Zuerlein or Harrison Butker.
Defense/Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts v. Miami Dolphins
The Indianapolis Colts were my pick here a week ago, and savvy owners who picked them up reaped the rewards of last week’s fourth-best fantasy D/ST unit. The Colts recorded five sacks and forced two turnovers in their Week 11 victory. Indianapolis is poised to have another solid defensive showing when they host the Miami Dolphins.
Miami ranks among the most generous teams in the NFL in terms of points allowed to opposing fantasy defenses. While many will point to Brock Osweiler as the main culprit, Ryan Tannehill has not been any better. In the five games Tannehill has played, the opposing D/ST unit has registered a top-six finish three times. In his last game back in Week 5, Cincinnati scored two defensive touchdowns off Tannehill turnovers. Coming off a long layoff and still not 100 percent healthy, Tannehill is ripe for the picking against an emerging Colts’ squad. Indianapolis should be able to keep their winning streak intact and suppress Miami’s lackluster offense.
Extra Point
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you are digging for some deep Week 12 streamers, you have come to the right place. The extra point is not where you will find the obvious names. This is where the truly boom-or-bust options reside. Last week, I highlighted Gerald Everett. Needless to say, that worked out, as Everett finished second among tight ends in fantasy points. The week before it was Kapri Bibbs, who finished Week 10 as the RB43. You win some, you lose some, especially when you go this far down on the depth chart. This week I am going to choose Kendrick Bourne of the San Francisco 49ers.
Bourne’s recent uptick in production has largely coincided with the availability of veteran Pierre Garcon. Garcon has missed two of San Francisco’s last three games. In the two games Garcon did not play in, Bourne has seen a total of 17 targets. That number is something to consider given that Garcon did not practice on Wednesday as he attempts to return from a knee injury. It only helps matters that San Francisco faces Tampa Bay and their anemic pass defense this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the league’s best completion rate on attempted passes as well as the most touchdown throws. They have also recorded a league-low one interception on the year. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric on deep passes and second-to-last on short passes. Other than that, they are really good.
I would argue that Bourne makes for a worthy punt play even if Garcon returns. San Francisco is 2-8 and Garcon is a 32-year old known commodity. There is no need to rush him back into action and even less of a need to keep him a featured part of the passing game. It’s time to turn the page and see what Bourne and some of the other younger players on this roster can do with added reps. Fantasy owners who are scrambling for a wide receiver in deeper leagues may benefit by adding Kendrick Bourne in what should be a high-scoring affair in Tampa Bay. Bourne is available in a whopping 92 percent of leagues and is currently active in just one percent. He is no sure thing, but Bourne could be a difference maker this week.