MLB DFS Opening Weekend Planner: April 7-10

The MLB DFS Weekend Planner is back for the 2022 season! After a long lockout and a short Spring Training, we finally have MLB DFS back in our lives this year. There’s absolutely nothing better than diving into the data, the matchups, and the ballparks to build some daily lineups.

This season, this weekly piece will look ahead to each MLB DFS weekend through a few different lenses. We can’t cover every possible matchup or salary so this macro view will cover the schedule, the weather, ballparks to fade and stack, and the best offenses and pitching staffs of the weekend. At the end, I will give my thoughts on an underrated bat and arm that look to have favorable circumstances over the coming days.

Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Opening Weekend!

MLB Weekend Schedule

The “Probable Pitchers” grid at Fangraphs is always a fantastic resource for looking ahead at the MLB schedule. Here is the weekend at a glance. As we will look at in the Weather section, below, some of these games have already been moved or postponed due to inclement conditions.

As you can see, we have Coors Field and Yankee Stadium in play this weekend, which gives an advantage to certain types of hitters. More on that in the Ballparks section of this column.

MLB Weekend Weather

The MLB weather gods have not been kind to us for Opening Day, so we can only hope that things start looking up for the rest of the weekend. Bad weather has already pushed the NYY-BOS and SEA-MIN games from Thursday to Friday and caused the WAS-NYM to move to the evening at 7:05 PM ET.

Presently, we wait word to make sure that the MIL-CHC game still happens as planned at 2:20 ET on Thursday. Presently it should not rain or snow during that game, but game-time temperatures look like they will be 46 degrees with strong winds from the west-southwest.

On Friday, the CHW-DET game currently looks to have temps in the low-40s and winds up to 15 mph. Watch out for that series as the weekend moves along.

Weather for this weekend’s games and for any MLB game can be found at Swish Analytics or any number of MLB tracking sites.

Best Pitching Parks

Best Hitting Parks

Best Offenses to Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers (@ COL) – What a way for the Dodgers to start their season. Potentially the best offense we have ever seen in the best hitting park ever created. The modern version of the Murderer’s Row seeks to begin their dominance of the league beginning on Friday and will face some pitchers who are susceptible to giving up huge run totals, especially at home. And remember, the Dodgers added firepower to the team that did this last season:

With the addition of Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers add a massive power bat from the left side and it should pay immediate dividends. Coors Field is the eighth-best park for left-handed homers over the past three seasons.

Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzentela all can have their moments when they are away from Coors Field. But this weekend will decidedly not be those moments and the Rockies’ pitching staff is about to be demolished for three straight games.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. OAK) – The Phillies also added some serious pop to their lineup this offseason. Right off the bat, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos should be able to start showing off from opposite sides of the plate against these junior varsity-level Oakland pitchers. After trading Sean Manaea to the Padres this week, the Athletics will be left with Frankie Montas, Cole Irvin, and Daulton Jeffries in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park.

We can expect guys like Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, and Castellanos to run high salaries over the weekend. But others in the lineup like Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, and even rookie Bryson Stott can provide the power as well. Montas was a decent strikeout pitcher in 2021, but both Jeffries and Irvin had K/9 less than 7.0 last year. That’s not a recipe for success against these mashers.

Best Pitching Staffs

San Francisco Giants (vs. MIA) – We see above in the pitching charts just how effective Oracle Park can be at preventing runs and now one of the more anemic offenses runs into town after a cross-country trip from Florida. The Giants will get to roll out their new-look pitching trio of Logan Webb, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony DeSclafani and success should come quickly here. While the Marlins upgraded their need for power by adding Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler, both had strikeout rates approaching 24% last season. Add in strikeout rates north of 27% for Jesus Sanchez and Garrett Cooper and the these Giants look mighty attractive.

Webb, Rodon, and DeSclafani were over one strikeout per inning guys in 2021. With the potential for high strikeouts combined with a run-suppressing park, and you have a recipe for significant pitcher fantasy points.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. OAK) – What more really needs to be said? Yes, Citizens Bank Park is typically a hitters’ paradise. But some of the “hitters” that Oakland will bring to town include Tony Kemp, Stephen Vogt, Elvis Andrus, and Kevin Smith. The salaries on Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, and Zach Eflin will be high this weekend, and we won’t get to roster Zach Wheeler yet. But I bet I will be willing to pay whatever it will take to secure their services when the time comes.

Underrated Weekend Bat

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) – Nimmo is always an underappreciated and undervalued MLB DFS asset. He typically bats leadoff which maximizes his plate appearance potential. And as a leftie bat who seemingly lives on base, he has the potential for massive points each game. We can probably fade against left-hander Patrick Corbin on Thursday, but then he faces three mediocre righties to complete the four-game series. None of Josiah Gray, Anibal Sanchez, or Erick Fedde should scare you away from rostering Nimmo and his excellent batting eye.

In 2021, Nimmo finished the season with a streak of 15 games out of his last 19 where he scored at least five fantasy points. In only two of those games did he fail to score any. He is only $3,900 on DraftKings and a criminally low $2,600 on FanDuel on Thursday. Those are likely to rise somewhat when he gets to the righties on Friday thru Sunday, but Nimmo has as high a chance as anyone to see five plate appearances per game this weekend. Nimmo’s OBP versus right-handers last year was a robust .390.

Underrated Weekend Arm

Steven Matz (SP, STL) – We already know about the Busch Stadium advantage. The Cardinals’ park is one of the top around at limiting runs, and now one of the best lineups at limiting runs also comes to town. Matz should have a relative cakewalk against a low-power, low-contact lineup that the Pirates roll out on Sunday.

In 2021, the Pirates as a team struck out almost 22% of the time against lefties. They also had only a .303 OBP and a .357 SLG% against them. Their wRC+ of 78 last year means they were 22% below league average against left-handed pitchers. Now they’ve added Dan Vogelbach to the top of the lineup who slashed .097/.176/.194 against lefties in 34 plate appearances last season. He will likely sit on Sunday, but that just takes one more potential power bat out of the Pirates’ lineup.

We are assured to not have an exorbitant salary on Matz, so he will be worth using in many of your MLB DFS lineups.

For more help in building your best DFS lineups, check out the hitters with the most extreme platoon splits in baseball.