Monday night’s MLB DFS main slate is highlighted by two aces squaring off against one another in the south side of Chicago. Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease both have matchups against struggling offenses on Monday. But the night’s best matchup and park environment may belong to Spencer Strider who faces the Pirates in Pittsburgh. On offense, the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, and Texas Rangers look like chalky offenses against mediocre pitchers.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for August 7
Today’s analysis covers the eight-game main slate that begins at 7:05 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- Rain is in the forecast for PNC Park in Pittsburgh
- Rain is in the forecast for Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Rain is in the forecast for Citi Field in New York
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Fenway Park
- Angel Stadium
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- Oakland Coliseum
- Citi Field
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($11,300) vs. Chicago White Sox – It’s a simple combination for Gerrit Cole against the White Sox on Monday night. Take the fact that they have one the top-10 highest strikeout rates in the league then add the fact that they have the lowest walk rate in the league. They are bottom 10 in home runs and dead last in on-base percentage. For $1,500 less than Spencer Strider on DK, I will have plenty of Cole on Monday night.
Value Pitcher
Dane Dunning ($7,200) vs. Oakland Athletics – Dunning got a $1,100 salary hike after he dismantled the White Sox in his last turn for one earned run and 11 strikeouts in 7.2 innings. Still, $7,200 is not enough when you take into account he’s moving to the best pitching park in the league against an offense that is dead last in the league in slugging and possesses the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate.
High-Dollar Infielder
Rafael Devers ($5,200) vs. Cole Ragans – Let me put your mind at ease about lefty Devers facing a mediocre left-hander like Ragans. Devers is hitting better against same-handed pitching this season, slashing .293/.346/.561 against them with a 142 wRC+. He has eight bombs in 133 plate appearances against lefties this year.
Value Infielder
Luis Urias ($3,000) vs. Cole Ragans – After coming off an injury and finding himself with a new team, Urias is 3-for-8 in his first two games with Boston. For his career, Urias slugs 70 points higher against left-handers and is very likely to hit sixth or seventh for Boston on Monday.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Christian Yelich ($5,600) vs. Peter Lambert – Christian Yelich against left-handed pitching is basically a replacement-level hitter these days, but he is still a superstar against righties, especially weak righties. Yelich is hitting .310/.403/.528 against them this year and Lambert allows a .321/.415/.506 line against lefty batters.
Value Outfielder
Rob Refsnyder ($2,700) vs. Cole Ragans – Refsnyder will likely bat leadoff against a lefty on Monday night, as he has traditionally killed those pitchers in the past. He has a crazy .349/.476/.446 slash line against them this year, and will be the catalyst for an offense projected to score almost six runs in this home game.
Best DraftKings Stack
Boston Red Sox vs. Cole Ragans – Cole Ragans’ 4.33 ERA this season doesn’t look terrible on paper across his first 35 innings pitched this season. But there is some smoke and mirrors there as he strikes out less than a batter per inning and walks more than four hitters per nine innings. Be especially mindful to the Red Sox lefties because Ragans has been reverse-splits against them this year, allowing a .297 average and a .413 on-base percentage.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($11,500) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – The last time Spencer Strider threw fewer than six innings and fewer than nine strikeouts was way back on June 14th, so we know that is the baseline for him against the floundering Pirates. The Pirates have the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers plus the 25th-ranked on-base percentage.
Value Pitcher
Brayan Bello ($8,900) vs. Kansas City Royals – Dane Dunning ($8,400) also fits the bill here, but we can get a little different with Bello. He has been magnificent in eight of his last nine starts. He has allowed more than three earned runs twice since April 17th and the Royals are currently projected to score just 3.9 runs, fourth-lowest on the slate. Kansas City has the sixth-worst slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
High-Dollar Infielder
Corey Seager ($4,300) vs. Ken Waldichuk – Seager is one of only eight batters that are $4,000 or above on Monday night, but he might be the best value of the whole bunch. He has not struggled one bit against same-handed pitching this year, putting up .333/.370/.602 against them. Seager is on some kind of crazy white-hot streak right now with five home runs and 10 RBI in his last seven games. He is worth every penny on Monday night.
Value Infielder
Ezequiel Duran ($2,900) vs. Ken Waldichuk – With Josh Jung now facing a months-long absence, the door is wide open for Duran to get starts all over the diamond and his bat will certainly be in the lineup against the weak Waldichuk. Duran is simply killing left-handed pitching this year, putting up an astounding .306/.379/.600 line across almost 100 plate appearances.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Adolis Garcia ($3,700) vs. Ken Waldichuk – Adolis Garcia has eight hits and four home runs in his last six games, continuing a season-long hot streak right near the top of the Rangers’ batting order. As you might expect in this MVP-caliber season, Garcia is slaughtering left-handers to the tune of .281/.391/.521. He also has a very high 20% home run per flyball rate against them in 2023.
Value Outfielder
Adam Duvall ($2,900) vs. Cole Ragans – Duvall is $1,600 cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings on Monday night and all the caveats about Cole Ragans still apply here. For his career. Duvall slugs .464 against left-handers and walks almost nine percent of his plate appearances. Duvall is very likely to bat fifth Monday night and he can be rostered in one of the best game environments of the slate for less than $3,000.
Best FanDuel Stack
Texas Rangers vs. Ken Waldichuk – I could just copy and paste a picture of Waldichuk’s 6.52 ERA here and walk away, but it’s worth noting that his FIP (5.62) backs up the horrific ERA. He also walks 5.5 batters per nine innings, which is what leads to huge innings against him. No Ranger other than Corey Seager is over $3,700 so this stack is very easy to all over the place. You can start with a top-of-the-order stack with Seager, Marcus Semien, and Garcia. Or you can even go lower in the order with a Duran-Mitch Garver-Robbie Grossman stack who are all under $3,000.