Friday night’s MLB DFS main slate is highlighted by a lack of true aces available at the pitcher position and some outstanding hitting options across the slate. On both sites, Logan Webb and Kodai Senga are two of the most expensive pitching options, but both face very good teams. Hitting should be much more fun to figure out with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani visiting Coors Field and the heated Astros-Dodgers rivalry continuing in Los Angeles.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for June 23
Today’s analysis covers the 10-game main slate that begins at 7:05 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- There is rain forecasted for the Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers game, but is unlikely to impact the game too much.
- There is a fairly significant chance of rain in New York for the Yankees versus the Texas Rangers. This one has the possibility of deley or postponement so check forecasts closer to lock.
- There is also a chance of rain for the New York Mets at the Philadelphia Phillies. A chance of delay is in play here.
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Citizen’s Bank Park
- Coors Field
- Dodger Stadium
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- Petco Park
- Oracle Park
- loanDepot Park
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($9,200) vs. Oakland Athletics – It doesn’t look pretty in Bassitt’s recent box scores on DraftKings. In fact, in three of the last five games you got zero or negative points from him. But his last two starts were at Baltimore and at Texas, two of the three toughest offenses in AL right now. The A’s at home should be a much easier ride as they have the worst team slugging percentage in the league over the last 30 days (.316) despite the hot stretch earlier in the month.
Value Pitcher
Dane Dunning ($5,700) vs. New York Yankees – Let’s face it, the Yankees are just not a good offense without Aaron Judge as the anchor. That makes Dane Dunning way too cheap tonight, assuming this game does play with the potential weather impact. The Yankees are just 21st overall in the last month in team slugging percentage (.392) and are absolutely dead last in on-base percentage (.270).
High-Dollar Infielder
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. ($5,400) vs. James Kaprielian – Guerrero is inexplicably priced below players like Will Smith, J.T. Realmuto, and Adley Rutschman on Friday night despite the fact that the Blue Jays have one of the best run-scoring opportunities on the slate. Kaprielian may have been slightly better as of late, but still has struck out more than four batters once in the last six games and has given up eight walks in his last 17 innings.
Value Infielder
Brandon Belt ($2,500) vs. James Kaprielian – Brandon Belt may not actually be a better hitter than Shohei Ohtani (although he thinks he is), but he is a much better value on Friday night against Gas Can Kaprielian. This is a clear misprice for a player likely batting fourth tonight against a bad right-hander. Belt has a .388 OBP and a .455 SLG% against righties this year.
High-Dollar Outfielder
George Springer ($5,100) vs. James Kaprielian – Springer has been very reverse-splitsy against right-handers this year, with a SLG% 90 points higher than against left-handers this season. He has been hot lately with 8.5 DK points per game over the last 10 and he is very likely to get five plate appearances against Kaprielian and the league’s worst collective bullpen (5.61 ERA).
Value Outfielder
Tommy Pham ($3,000) vs. Taijuan Walker – Tommy Pham is on an absolute heater right now, scoring more than 10 DK points in five of his last seven games. he has started in each of the Mets’ last 12 games and has hit fourth or fifth in five straight games. He’s had his success by hitting significantly more flyballs in June (37%) and Walker has allowed 35% flyballs this year with a 13% HR/FB rate.
Best DraftKings Stack
Toronto Blue Jays vs. James Kaprielian – Compared to teams like the Angels in Coors Field, the Blue Jays are much more affordable and face a far worse pitcher in Kaprielian. If Bo Bichette misses another game on Friday, at least six of their starters will be $4,000 or below including cheap lefties like Belt, Daulton Varsho, Cavan Biggio, and Kevin Kiermaier. The Blue Jays (5.8 runs) trail only the Angles in implied run total on this main slate.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Logan Webb ($10,200) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Since April 17th, Logan Webb has exactly one game where he has not thrown at least six innings or given up more than three earned runs. That one game was June 7th in Colorado so we can forgive him for only going 5.1 innings and allowing four runs. He just put up back-to-back 40-point performances on FD against the Dodgers and Cardinals and and has the power of his home park and its run suppression behind him tonight.
Value Pitcher
Joe Musgrove ($8,900) vs. Washington Nationals – Despite a very enticing matchup and a matchup at his home park in his favor, Musgrove is just the ninth-most expensive pitcher on FD tonight. He has a streak of at least six innings in four of his last five games and has allowed only six earned runs in his last four starts. The Nationals are a team that does not strike out a lot, but their team slugging percentage ranks 23rd overall this year.
High-Dollar Infielder
Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($4,300) vs. Patrick Corbin – While Tatis and the Padres may not have the advantage of Coors Field on Friday, they definitely face one of the worst pitchers of the last two years in lefty Patrick Corbin. Tatis has an insane .712 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this year and a 1.131 OPS.
Value Infielder
Manny Machado ($2,900) vs. Patrick Corbin – Machado may not be quite at the level Tatis is at right now, but his splits against left-handers are also out of this world. He has a .381/.426/.587 line against them and only strikes out 10% of the time. I do not know why Machado is priced under $3,000 in this matchup, but he will find his way into plenty of my FD lineups.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Mike Trout ($4.400) vs. Kyle Freeland – Mike Trout is “only” hitting .250 with 15 home runs this season, but do we care about that with Coors Field on tap for three games? We absolutely do not. Trout is a career .436/.551/.718 hitter for his career in Coors Field and Kyle Freeland is allowing a 4.33 xFIP at home this year.
Value Outfielder
Hunter Renfroe ($3,100) vs. Kyle Freeland – Renfroe is in a bit of a home run drought (just two this month), but for his career he absolutely destroys left-handers. His career .263/.344/.538 against them now lines up with a visit to Coors Field where he has a career .618 slugging percentage in 78 plate appearances. Renfroe likely bats fifth tonight but is only the eighth-most expensive Angel on FD.
Best FanDuel Stack
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Freeland – Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are the only Angels players over $3,600 tonight, making it very easy to fit them in as a primary stack with a mid-range pitcher. The Angels will be rolling out some very cheap right-handers like Brandon Drury ($3.600) , Hunter Renfroe, and Andrew Velasquez ($2,600) tonight. I also like Chad Wallach ($2,700) as a very under-rostered C/1B option on FD for that salary.