We have now played about three and a half weeks of the MLB regular season. Most teams have now completed about 22 games and we are getting close to a point of the season where certain stats we care about for DFS begin to normalize. Research has shown over the years that certain pitcher stats (such as strikeout rate) and hitter stats (like contact rate) begin to be predictive of the future after about 150 plate appearances. Since strikeouts are king for DFS pitchers and you can’t win your games if you can’t make contact and get on base, these are stats we can begin to prioritize as we make our DFS lineups.
If you have any thoughts or recommendations for how we can better cover MLB DFS in 2023, reach out to us on Twitter or send me a message (@CableBoxScore). I’m always happy to talk a little DFS throughout the day, and let’s win some slates together! Let’s start by looking at weather issues for Monday as well as the best hitting and pitching environments on the main slate today.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for April 24
Today’s analysis covers the seven-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:07 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- Winds will be blowing out to center field at Oracle Park at speeds of 10-15 mph (Cardinals @ Giants)
- Winds will be blowing out to left field at Truist Park at speeds of 8-10 mph (Marlins @Braves)
Best Hitters’ Parks:
- Truist Park
- Angel Stadium
- American Family Field
Best Pitchers’ Parks:
- Rogers Centre
- Target Field
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($10,900) vs. Miami Marlins – Strider was absolutely electric in his last start in San Diego, striking out nine over six innings while only allowing one hit. Because of that performance and this matchup against the Marlins, Strider’s salary is now $1,600 higher than it was just 12 days ago. The Marlins strike out 24% of the time this season and have the 21st-highest on base percentage among all teams.
Value Pitcher
Jhony Brito ($6,800) @ Minnesota Twins – If you look at Brito’s overall stats, they don’t look very impressive. But it’s all thanks to one blow-up start out of his first four. On April 13th against these same Twins, Brito gave up seven earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning. In his other three starts he has allowed a total of two earned runs and 11 strikeouts. The Twins have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league through the first three and a half weeks.
High-Dollar Infielder
Willy Adames ($5,400) vs. Detroit Tigers – For his career, Matthew Boyd allows a .471 slugging percentage to right-handers, a full 70 points more than left-handers. Adames has started the year on fire with a .278/.376/.481 slash line with four homers, two steals, and a robust 14% walk rate.
Value Infielder
Luis Rengifo ($3,300) vs. Oakland Athletics – The Angels have an obscenely high 5.87 implied run total on Monday night as they host the lowly Oakland Athletics for a series. Rengifo is a very low-salary right-handed infielder who should play against the Southpaw the Athletics will be throwing to the lions in this game. So far this season, Rengifo’s slugging percentage is 138 points higher against left-handers than it is against right-handed pitchers.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Mike Trout ($5,900) vs. Oakland Athletics – Both Trout and teammate Shohei Ohtani are in fabulous spots on Monday night against the weak Ken Waldichuck. Waldichuck, a lefty, allows a 1.075 OPS to right-handers this season including six bombs to just 83 batters faced. Trout comes at a slight discount from Ohtani ($6,200) although both are smash high-dollar plays.
Value Outfielder
Brian Anderson ($3,400) vs. Detroit Tigers – Anderson is off to a terrific year so far with a .264/.345/.444 slash line including three home runs, 13 runs, and 16 RBI. He has been a fantastic run producer in the middle third of the order for the Brewers and now gets Matthew Boyd at home. Boyd already has a 1.50 WHIP to start the season, and tonight could make it worse with the hitting conditions at American Family Field.
Best DraftKings Stack
Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuck – The top of this stack is extremely expensive, with Trout, Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe, and Taylor Ward all $4,900 or higher. But this game has an implied total of 10 runs, and the Angels project to be very right-handed heavy against the lefty-throwing Waldichuck. But batters like Zach Neto, Luis Rengifo, and Brandon Drury are all $3,600 or less and make up a fine bottom-of-the-order, low-rostered stack. Waldichuck is not likely to be long for this game, but the Oakland bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors (7.13).
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Jordan Montgomery ($9,000) @ San Francisco Giants – Jordan Montgomery for just $9,000 against the team with the highest strikeout rate in the league is like a gift from the DFS gods. Montgomery’s last pitching line looks abysmal after allowing 10 hits and seven runs to Arizona on April 18, but Montgomery averaged 37 FanDuel points in his other three starts and he gets a nice, pitcher-friendly ballpark to throw in as well.
Value Pitcher
Colin Rea ($7,200) vs. Detroit Tigers – Colin Rea has one tremendous start against the Padres and one very mediocre one against Seattle. We can forgive him the misstep on the road against the Mariners and look ahead to the delightful matchup he has on tap Monday. Detroit has now fallen to last in the league in team slugging percentage (.327) and they are striking out more than 26% of the time.
High-Dollar Infielder
Bo Bichette ($3,600) vs. Chicago White Sox – Lance Lynn has been atrocious now on several of his starts including giving up 13 baserunners across five innings in his last time on the mound. Bichette has started off this year on fire (.344/.379/.533) and has the highest average exit velocity of his career so far this season (92.1 mph).
Value Infielder
Carlos Correa ($2,900) vs. New York Yankees – Carlos Correa has not really gotten the bat going so far this season, but perhaps a date with Jhony Brito might change that. Correa is too good a hitter to languish with a slugging percentage below .400 for too long. He has been bouncing back and forth between big games and games where he doesn’t do much, but Correa should be able to deliver some damage to a pitch-to-contact guy like Brito.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Shohei Ohtani ($3,800) vs. Oakland Athletics – All the same caveats as before with Mike Trout still apply, but this time it is Ohtani ($3,800) who is slightly cheaper than Trout ($3,900). Ohtani has an incredible .550 against left-handed pitchers so far this year, bucking the trend of any issues with the same-handedness matchup.
Value Outfielder
Daulton Varsho ($2,900) vs. Chicago White Sox – The Blue Jays are fast approaching a team total tonight that reaches five runs. Varsho will be an incredible source of left-handed power against Lance Lynn tonight. Varsho may not have the stats we want in seasonal baseball, but his walk rate is up (11%) and his walk rate is down (23.8%), which makes for a good combination against the erratic Lance Lynn.
Best FanDuel Stack
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lance Lynn – Matt Chapman and his resurgent season are the only Blue Jays’ players listed over $4,000 on Monday against the Chicago White Sox. But perhaps the best thing about stacking this Toronto team is once you start getting into the lefties against Lynn, all of Daulton Varsho, Cavan Biggio, and Brandon Belt are listed under $3,000. This is a nice lineup to mix and match with all of the various salary points on FanDuel.