Welcome to David Mendelson’s MLB DFS Quick Hits for FanDuel & Draft Kings Contests for Thursday, September 17, 2020
Welcome to today’s edition! We have a six-game slate that locks tonight at 7:05 PM EST. We have two big dogs that should be at the center of any lineups you play tonight, but also a couple of cost-effective options. Bats should be looking really nice today! In these MLB DFS Quick Hits, you’ll see my:
Pitching Plays – My top two pitching plays of the night. The opposing team’s effectiveness against pitcher’s handiness, K rate, and wRC+ are just a few of the items considered here.
Happy Hitters – One corner infielder, middle infielder, and two outfielders who should be smiling at the end of the night. Hitter’s platoon splits, ISO, and wOBA are just a few of the items considered here.
Let’s Get Weird – I will give one hitter and one pitcher lesser owned that MIGHT have a chance to boom but an equal chance to bust. In other words, a dart throw that could set you apart in MLB DFS GPP’s. Your decision if you want to live dangerously.
Let’s dive right into today.
Top MLB DFS Plays for 9/17
Pitching Plays
- Shane Bieber ($10,900 DK / $11,900 FD) – I’m going out on a limb here to suggest you start Shane Bieber. Hardcore analysis. If you want some numbers, Bieber has recorded quality starts in nine of his 10 outings this year, while logging at least eight K’s in each start. He’s facing a Detroit team that strikes out close to a 30% clip against RHP. Eat this chalk for sure.
- Aaron Nola ($10,100 DK / $10,900 FD) – Nola has been pitching well recently, posting a 1.65 ERA in his past four starts. The one thing to keep an eye out for is he’s scheduled for 3 more starts before the playoffs. This could limit how long the Phillies will let Nola go, assuming they are trying to save his arm for the playoffs. With that being said, he has his highest chase percentage of his career and it shows with 77 K’s in 56 IP. If you want to pivot off Bieber, this isn’t a bad option.
Happy Hitters
- Corner Infield: Jose Ramirez ($5,500 DK / $ 3,800 FD) – Let’s start out by saying if he was going against a LHP, Ramirez would be my #1 play today. Ramirez has TORCHED LHP over the past several weeks and it would’ve been an easy call. I’m still sticking with him in this spot vs. a RHP. He has 5 HRs already this month while hitting for a .292 BA and has been the focal point of the Indians offense. I like to look at splits a lot but as Jared Walsh has proven with his hitting, regardless of handiness, I’m taking the hot hand here.
- Middle Infield: Tommy Edman ($4,200 DK / $2,900 FD) – Going against the lefty Steven Brault, I like Edman in this spot here. Ever since the calendar turned to September, Edman has a 321 wRC+ and is walking twice as much as he’s struck out vs LHP. He’s doing this with a .500 BA and 1.083 SLG. Edman could be a cheap play here to plug in your middle infield.
- Outfielder #1: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($4,200 DK / $2,800 FD) – Facing the mixed bag known as Mashiro Tanaka on the mound, you’ll never be sure what to get. However, I’m confident LGJ has a dinger in him tonight. Over the last 37 PA vs RHP, Gurriel Jr. has a 235 wRC+ and a 1.0 K/BB ratio. He’s also batting .424 over that time and is anchoring the Blue Jays lineup with their rash of injuries. As evidence by the 20-6 game just a few days ago, these two teams can put up runs and I like the chances of LGJ to contribute.
- Outfielder #2: Michael Brantley ($3,500 DK / $3,200 FD) – He’s backkkk. Over his last 15 games, he’s been doing very Michael Brantley type things. Brantley is hitting .327 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs. Even better vs. RHP he has a 244 wRC+ and a .526 wOBA. I will always like hitters going against Texas pitching outside of Lance Lynn and Brantley should be good in this matchup. A very safe cash game play.
Let’s Get Weird
- Framber Valdez ($9,200 DK / $9,100 FD) – This might be the least “Getting Weird” option ever put in this section. With 6 games, however, there’s limited pickings and I’m not a fan of most on the slate. There are concerns, for sure. He started out hot, going 2-2 with a 1.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and one homer allowed in 31 1/3 innings in his first five outings. Since then, Valdez has gone 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and four homers allowed in 26 innings in four starts. His success hinders on his curveball and how effective it is. He has a .134 BA and a 39% whiff percentage against it this year and if it’s on, look out.
- Josh Fuentes ($3,100 DK / $2,800 FD) – First and foremost, make sure he’s in the lineup before you consider playing this cat. Over his last 14 AB’s, he’s hitting lefties very well with a slash line of .545/.500/.1000. In a game in Coors when anything can happen, this will certainly set you apart from the field in a GPP and a nice low-owned piece in a Rockies stack. Play with caution.
Make sure to follow me on twitter @DMendy02 and tag me if I helped you win some cash on this MLB DFS slate. Good luck!
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