It feels like it took forever, but the game we’ve loved since we were children is back. It’s baseball season my friends, and with the new rule changes, the game is faster and more action-packed than ever. Limited pickoff attempts and bigger bases should make steals more frequent. A ban on shifts make singles and doubles more prominent, so we’re more likely to see the return of small ball. And the pitch clock has more and more pitchers calling their own games. Every action has a reaction, so we will be sure to take these rule changes into account when we make our player prop selections. Sportsbooks vary, so we’ll set our own lines with what makes sense based on the data, and you can bet accordingly with your favorite sportsbook. Now, without further ado, let’s get into it!
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MLB Player Prop Bets for April 4th
Jason Heyward OVER 0.5 Hits:
Remember this guy?! He came onto the scene with Atlanta, made bank with the Cubs, but failed to keep the magic going. The 33-year-old is looking to get back to his raking ways with the Dodgers this year. Last night, he had 2 Hits, 1 HR, 2 Runs, and 3 RBI. That’s a great start to the year, for anyone, but especially a former All-Star looking to make an impact with his new team. If he’s in the lineup tonight, he’ll face German Marquez. He’s 5 of 12 off Marquez historically, with one extra-base hit. I don’t love looking at historical samples for matchups because the sample sizes are usually too small to matter statistically, but these players know who they’ve had success against and why. That matters to me. Expect Heyward to get into the hit column tonight.
Oneil Cruz OVER 0.5 Hits:
Nick Pivetta is on the bump for Boston today. That’s not great news for any Pittsburgh hitter, but it’s better news for lefties than righties. On top of that, Pivetta throws his 93MPH fastball over 50% of the time. The most of his pitch arsenal. Oneil Cruz has a 67% Hard Hit Percentage against that pitch (and that velocity) according to Rotogrinders. I like our odds of Cruz running into one here. For what it’s worth, if you think he’s going to get on base (I do), then you might as well chase odds for him to get a steal as well. He’s a five-tool talent.
Dalton Varsho OVER 1+ Total Bases:
The Blue Jays take on the Royals tonight, and Kris Bubic is on the mound. He’s a beast against righties but allows a .443 wOBA and .237 ISO vs. lefties. One lefty expected to be in the lineup tonight is Dalton Varsho. He can hit for average. He can hit for power. Varsho can also steal bases. Bubic isn’t going to pitch around Varsho in a lineup as potent as Toronto’s, so I expect Varsho to have plenty of opportunity to cash this bet.