We are back for another wonderful Wednesday in the world of MLB player props! This trio of props encompasses various start times, so hopefully there is something for everyone. As luck would have it, all three of this week’s plays are plus money. They are also all featured on DraftKings. Neither of those factors were by design on my part. But sometimes you have to take what the sportsbooks give you. As always, adjust any plays as you see fit and shop for the best prices. Some of these prices may move throughout the day, so do your best to remain ahead of the curve. I will post any additional plays that I like on Twitter. And yes, I still call it Twitter. Best of luck to everyone!
More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
MLB Player Props for August 16
2-Leg Parlay: Kenta Maeda UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed/Reid Detmers No Win (+106, DraftKings)
The books listing Kenta Maeda’s hits allowed player prop at 5.5 is baffling to me. Maeda has given up more than five hits in just one of nine starts since returning from the IL. Two of those starts came against Wednesday’s opponent, the Detroit Tigers. Maeda allowed just three hits in each of those matchups. Since the All-Star break, the Tigers are hitting .225 versus righties on the road. I feel like this player prop should be listed at 4.5. The issue is that the price for under 5.5 hits allowed is -170. I cannot justify paying that price, regardless of how much I like the prop. Therefore, I am looking for something to pair this with. There are several different directions I could go here. I am opting for Reid Detmers not to record a win in his matchup against the Texas Rangers.
Los Angeles and Texas are going in opposite directions. As recently as July 31, the Angels were within 4.5 games of the Rangers. Since then, Texas has gone 12-2 while Los Angeles has gone 3-11. In that span, Reid Detmers has allowed 14 earned runs in just 6.1 innings over two starts. Jon Gray has been a bit hit-or-miss, but the Angels have posted a mere 57 wRC+ in August. The bullpen has also been a major issue for the Angels in recent weeks. Angels’ relievers have a 6.79 ERA so far this month. All signs point to another rough day at the office for Detmers on Wednesday. I do not envision him registering a victory in this outing.
Having said that, these games are staggered, which could add some inherent value to this prop. If Maeda does his part, you could hedge and bet on Detmers to record a win in Texas. This line will likely be somewhere in the +200 through +250 range by the afternoon. Doing this would decrease your risk factor. I will probably just let it ride if Maeda manages to stymie the Tigers. But I am all about trying to save people money, so I figured I would throw that out there.
Ryan McMahon OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105, DraftKings)
Ryan McMahon is currently mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. He has just two hits while striking out 13 times over his past nine games. However, I am willing to give him a bit of a pass considering the circumstances. Colorado has faced a left-handed starter in six of their last 11 games. McMahon is atrocious against southpaws, so it is no coincidence that this rough patch came during this stretch of games. On Wednesday he will get the chance to atone for his recent play (or at least make us some money) when the Rockies host Arizona and rookie Slade Cecconi.
McMahon still sports a .486 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers in Coors Field this season. That is slightly below his .513 career mark, but still a solid number nonetheless. Cecconi has only made one career MLB start, but he served up 23 homers in just 103 innings in Triple-A en route to a 5.93 FIP. Cecconi served up 14 of those 23 long balls on the road while walking just 10 hitters in 53 innings. Though McMahon has never seen Cecconi, the Rockies should have him well-scouted. Cecconi started against their Triple-A affiliate back in June. Two of Arizona’s three lefties out of the pen pitched in Tuesday’s game. That increases the likelihood that McMahon should get most of his looks on Wednesday versus righties. This matchup may be the medicine that the doctor ordered for Ryan McMahon to get off the schneid.
TJ Friedl OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120, DraftKings)
TJ Friedl has cemented himself atop Cincinnati’s batting order against right-handed pitchers. That means he should be in a prime place to produce on Wednesday when the Reds host the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland will have Noah Syndergaard on the mound. Syndergaard pitched in Great American Ballpark earlier this season. Not coincidentally, that was his last game as a Los Angeles Dodger. In that outing, Syndergaard surrendered six runs in just three innings of work. I do not believe his fortune will be much better this time around. Though his surface stats as a Guardian are palatable, his xFIP in three starts with Cleveland is over 6.00. On the season, Syndergaard allows a .596 slugging percentage when facing left-handed hitters on the road.
Friedl, meanwhile, is second on Cincinnati with a .506 home slugging percentage. He has at least two total bases in five of his last six home starts against right-handed starters. Friedl has a Run-Value of +5 or higher against three of Syndergaard’s five offerings. There should not be much of a threat in terms of a walk or strikeout in this matchup. Among 132 pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, Syndergaard has the lowest K+BB percentage in the game. Friedl should get three at-bats against Syndergaard, who ranks in the third percentile in opponents’ xSLG. Cleveland’s bullpen has also allowed opponents to hit .275 in August in case Syndergaard keeps Friedl in check. Either way, I expect TJ Friedl to register at least a pair of total bases in this matchup. This is one of my favorite MLB player props on Wednesday’s slate.