This week marks the first time that all three of my MLB player props are of the same nature. That was not my intention when I set out to make my plays. But in all three instances, I am targeting players who have great historical numbers against their respective opposing pitchers on Wednesday. In most of these cases, the hitters are also swinging hot bats. As always, double-check lineups before locking anything in. I made a note regarding this issue in the second prop. Shop for the best price and adjust any plays as you see fit. Here’s hoping that these three batter versus pitcher matchups continue to be fruitful.
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MLB Player Props for June 14
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105, DraftKings)
Goldy and Tony Disco have squared off 32 times in their careers. Goldschmidt has reached base in 19 of those 32 plate appearances. Five were via walk or hit-by-pitch, which unfortunately does nothing for total base props. However, among Goldschmidt’s 14 hits in 27 official at-bats are seven extra-base hits. Goldschmidt has recorded 25 total bases in 27 at-bats against DeSclafani, good for a .926 slugging percentage. Even if you added the extra plate appearances, that number would still be a formidable .781 mark.
That was an excerpt from the write-up I did seven weeks ago. That was the last time Paul Goldschmidt went head-to-head with Anthony DeSclafani. I played this exact player prop that day as well. If you are keeping score, here is how Goldschmidt fared against DeSclafani on April 26:
TOP 1
1 – 1, 1 Out
Home Run
Paul Goldschmidt homers (3) on a line drive to left center field.
TOP 3
0 – 0, 0 Outs
Home Run
Paul Goldschmidt homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.
TOP 5
0 – 0, 1 Out
Double
Paul Goldschmidt doubles (8) on a fly ball to right fielder LaMonte Wade Jr.
So yeah, Goldy went over his total base prop that day. He is now 17-for-30 in his career against DeSclafani. 10 of the 17 hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs. And yet, the price is now +105 for Goldschmidt to record at least two total bases, as opposed to +100 in their last encounter. As icing on the proverbial cake, Goldschmidt has recorded at least two total bases in four straight games. He has seven hits in that timeframe, so he is seeing the ball well. Given their history, DeSclafani may very well walk Goldschmidt every time he approaches the batter’s box. But this is a risk I am willing to take at this price. This is easily my favorite MLB player prop for Wednesday’s slate.
Adley Rutschman OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+125 DraftKings/FanDuel)
First, a quick note regarding this prop as it relates to last week. In last week’s column, I listed J.D. Davis to eclipse 1.5 total bases. His price was the same on DraftKings and FanDuel, as is the case with Adley Rutschman this week. So I listed both options, as I have done here as well. However, FanDuel does NOT void this prop if the player records an at-bat at any point of the game, regardless of whether he starts. Davis pinch-hit for the Giants last Wednesday and had a single. FanDuel recorded this prop as a loss, while most sportsbooks (including DraftKings and Caesars to name two) voided the wager. If you have the option and wish to tail this play, do so on DraftKings. I expect Rutschman to start, but better to be safe than sorry.
Now for the play itself. Before Tuesday, the Orioles catcher had gone 6-for-34 with one double over his previous eight contests. However, he showed signs of life on Tuesday after having two days off. Rutschman looks refreshed, lacing two doubles in Baltimore’s victory. He had a total of four hard-hit balls in five plate appearances. Rutschman is now hitting .336 and slugging .573 at home this season. He also has shown more power batting from the left side of the plate. 14 of his 18 extra-base hits this year have come against righties, including seven of his eight homers. On Wednesday, Rutschman will face a pitcher who he has had great success against, Jose Berrios.
Rutschman is 7-for-10 with two doubles and a home run lifetime against Berrios. Berrios has pitched well of late and has been slightly better away from Toronto than he was last season. However, I still consider “Road Berrios” to be a thing. Left-handed batters are hitting .303 with a .535 slugging percentage against Berrios in road games this year. I expect Rutschman to pick up where he left off on Tuesday and record at least two total bases in this game.
Justin Turner OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-115, FanDuel)
Justin Turner has taken quite a liking to his new digs in his first season as a member of the Boston Red Sox. In 150 plate appearances at Fenway Park, Turner is hitting .309 and slugging .449. But those numbers rise at Fenway versus lefties. In 38 at-bats against southpaws in home games, Turner has 15 hits, including seven for extra bases. Speaking of extra bases, who is Turner facing on Wednesday? Austin Gomber, the king of allowing XBH. Gomber has allowed 37 extra-base hits in just 60.2 innings this season. In fairness, the vast majority of those have come at Coors Field. But it is not as if he has excelled on the road in his career. Since joining the Rockies in 2021, Gomber has thrown 144 innings on the road. In those games, he has allowed a .465 slugging percentage.
To that point, Turner is 6-for-8 in his career against Gomber with three doubles and a home run. And guess what? None of those at-bats took place in Coors Field. Turner has also exhibited a good form of late. He has recorded at least two total bases in five straight games, with four multi-hit games in that stretch. Gomber has only lasted five innings in one of his last five starts. But I am not particularly worried about a short hook. He has faced at least 21 batters in four of the five, so Turner should get three chances to hit against Gomber on Wednesday.
I also think there is a decent chance Colorado has Gomber take one for the team even if he is ineffective. The Rockies have won three straight, including the first two games of this series. But it has come at a cost to their bullpen. They have used 18 relief pitchers over the last four days, including six on Tuesday. Five of their eight relievers have pitched three times in that span. Colorado has no off days until next Thursday. I would be surprised to see any of the five relievers in question pitch on Wednesday. The three freshest arms in the pen are Peter Lambert, Brent Suter, and Jake Bird. Turner is 5-for-14 lifetime against those hurlers with a double and a homer. No matter how you cut it, Justin Turner should continue his streak of games with at least two total bases on Wednesday.