Last week was another successful week in the prop shop. I went 2-1, including a +130 play for a return on investment of 39 percent. Believe it or not, that lowered my ROI on the plays I have posted here on the season. Let’s keep the momentum going with my favorite MLB player props for this Wednesday.
When I first prepared my notes for this week’s MLB player prop piece, I was sure Luis Arraez and Zack Greinke would be prominently featured. But neither player made the cut, at least not yet. I may add more plays throughout the day on Wednesday via Twitter, so follow me there for the latest updates to the card.
More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
MLB Player Props for May 24
Jake Burger OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120, FanDuel)
I had initially reserved this space for Luis Robert. But Robert left Tuesday’s game due to a potential injury. With Wednesday’s tilt being an afternoon game, I highly doubt we will see Chicago’s slugger in the lineup. That’s too bad, considering the South Siders are facing Cal Quantrill. Quantrill is the quintessential pitch-to-contact hurler. Quantrill has the lowest strikeout rate among 70 qualified starters. That makes Jake Burger an intriguing pivot from Robert in Wednesday’s matinee. Burger has a 32.4 percent strikeout rate this year. That number was boosted on Tuesday, as Burger “earned” the unenviable platinum sombrero by striking out five times. Because of that, you may want to make sure he is in the lineup before locking this player prop in. However, given Robert’s status, I think Burger will start. If he does, I like his chances to record at least two total bases.
Burger has a .600 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. That number is even more impressive when you factor in Burger’s 33.3 percent strikeout rate against righties. In at-bats that end in Burger putting the bat on the ball versus right-handers, Burger bats .396 and slugs .938. He also profiles well against Quantrill’s pitch mix. Quantrill throws either the sinker or cutter 82 percent of the time against right-handed hitters. Burger has a .792 xSLG versus the sinker and a .692 mark against the cutter. Quantrill is just the guy to get Burger out of his mini-slump, and I expect a big day from Burger on Wednesday.
Justin Turner OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105, FanDuel)
Rob Refsnyder came through in a similar spot last week. And I thought long and hard about rolling with Refsnyder again this week, as Boston faces another left-hander on Wednesday. However, that left-hander is Tyler Anderson. And while Refsynder has hit safely in both of his career at-bats versus the veteran, those numbers pale in comparison to the lifetime statistics that Justin Turner has complied against his former teammate. Turner is 18-for-36 lifetime with eight extra-base hits and an incredible .889 SLG in his career against Anderson. I must note that most of those meetings came in Coors Field when Turner was a member of the Dodgers. But Turner is still 7-for-15 with three doubles and two homers in non-Coors lifetime at-bats against Anderson. His slugging percentage in non-Coors meetings versus Anderson is higher than in their Coors matchups.
Turner is slugging .509 against Southpaws this season, so he is still a productive bat. He has hit second in Boston’s order in each of the last three times they have faced a left-handed starter, so he should see Anderson three times barring anything unforeseen. I think the biggest obstacle to this player prop hitting is the potential for walks. Anderson has walked Turner five times in their careers, and Anderson’s 10.7 percent walk rate this season is less than savory. But with Refsnyder and Rafael Devers likely to hit directly behind Turner, he should get some good pitches to hit. I am banking on Anderson coming after Turner, and the latter making the most of those opportunities.
Bryce Miller UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115, Caesar’s)
In the interest of full disclosure, this is not my favorite Bryce Miller player prop for Wednesday. That distinction goes to Miller’s earned runs allowed prop, currently at 2.5. The problem is that comes with a -173 price tag. And I cannot, in good conscience, suggest a prop with that price attached. On the flip side, if the other two props hit, we can lose this one and still be in the black for the day. But I’ll at least pretend to be responsible and advocate for the hit prop instead of the run prop. Truth be told, I think both are solid plays. Miller has made four Major League starts and has yet to allow five hits in any of them. To that end, he did allow three earnies in his last start, so maybe this is indeed the better play after all.
The first of those four starts was Miller’s Major League debut earlier this month. In that outing, Miller surrendered just two hits in six frames against the A’s. And Oakland has only gotten worse at the plate of late. Over the past seven days, the A’s have mustered only 10 runs of total offense and are hitting below .200 as a team. Miller threw 102 pitches in his last outing against Atlanta. So hopefully for the sake of this prop, Seattle lightens the load a little bit on Wednesday. Miller has thrown his four-seamer 67.7 percent of the time thus far this year. Oakland ranks 28th in Statcast’s Pitch Value/100 metric versus fastballs, so that should play nicely here. Miller should have another solid outing against Oakland on Wednesday.