Welcome to another wonderful Wednesday in the world of MLB player props. Last week was the first one of the year in which I had a losing record. As I look to avenge last week’s losses, there are a couple of things to note. First, there is one fewer game than usual, as the Cardinals and Royals have the day off. Also, there are still a few games for which we are still missing props as of this writing. I will still post my three favorite plays below based on the odds that are currently available. But I may add one or two more via Twitter throughout the day as more props get posted. So keep that in mind. As always, check lineups and prices whenever possible before locking anything in. And now, without further ado, let’s get to today’s MLB player props!
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MLB Player Props for May 31
Josh Jung OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110, DraftKings)
This player prop comes with a couple of disclaimers attached. First, the Detroit Tigers have not officially named a starter for Wednesday. All signs point to Joey Wentz getting the nod. If that is the case, I am rubber-stamping a Josh Jung total base prop. Jung has hit safely in 13 straight games. That includes six multi-hit games and at least two total bases in eight of 13. Opposing right-handed hitters are slugging .559 versus Wentz so far this season. Jung has an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .372 or higher against all four pitches he can expect to see from Wentz on Wednesday. That does incorporate walks to an extent, but Jung also has a hard-hit rate of 50 percent or higher on all four offerings. If Wentz goes after him, Jung will make him pay.
The other small disclaimer is that DraftKings is the only sportsbook I have seen post this player prop. Other books should follow suit throughout the morning on Wednesday, and some may post this at a better price. I have not yet put any American dollars on this prop and will likely abstain until I see other books post their lines. There is a decent chance we get a better price at Caesar’s, MGM, or BetRivers, to name a few.
Patrick Corbin UNDER 17.5 Outs (-123, Caesar’s)
Wednesday’s matinee at Dodger Stadium features a pitching matchup that pits Noah Syndergaard against Patrick Corbin. You could make the case for using all three of today’s MLB player props on this game alone and I would not argue with you. Both pitchers allow a ton of contact, and both have the potential to allow some crooked numbers. I will acknowledge that Patrick Corbin has resembled a Major League pitcher of late. He has won his last three starts and has six quality starts in his last eight outings. However, I do not expect him to register a quality start in this game.
First, this matchup has been quite difficult for Corbin to navigate in recent years. Since 2021, he has faced the Dodgers three times. In those three starts, Corbin has pitched a total of 9.2 innings. In that span, he has surrendered 21 hits and 17 runs. After getting off to a relatively slow start versus southpaws this season, the Dodgers have hit them hard recently. Los Angeles has faced eight lefty starters in May, excluding openers. Those eight pitchers have combined to throw only 40.1 innings while allowing 34 runs. I expect Corbin to have a tough time navigating this red-hot lineup.
Another reason I like this player prop is that Washington has not used any of their top three relief pitchers since Saturday. They have only deployed a total of five relievers in that stretch. With an off day upcoming on Thursday, I would not be surprised to see Dave Martinez go to his bullpen a bit early in this game. Corbin also threw 108 pitches on Friday, which could be a factor given the relatively short turnaround. Corbin has not exceeded 100 pitches in consecutive starts since last July. He has also not had two straight starts of at least 100 pitches on four days’ rest since 2019. That was back when he was an above-average pitcher. All in all, I do not anticipate Patrick Corbin completing six innings on Wednesday.
Clarke Schmidt OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-111, Caesar’s)
Clarke Schmidt has struggled in his first full Big League season as a starting pitcher. He has permitted 62 base hits in just 50 innings of work. Schmidt has allowed at least five hits in 10 of his 11 starts this season. That is a trend that I expect to continue on Wednesday when Schmidt faces the Seattle Mariners.
Schmidt’s biggest bugaboos this year have been in road games and versus left-handed batters. Schmidt has allowed an unsightly .354 batting average to lefties this year and opposing batters have hit at a .347 clip on the road. The only game Schmidt allowed fewer than five hits this season was a home game against a Toronto lineup that featured seven righties. The good news for Schmidt is that Seattle does not have an overwhelming number of left-handed bats. This might be a spot where it is best to see Seattle’s lineup before hitting that submit button. Over the last 10 days, Seattle has faced five right-handed starters. They have averaged four left-handed hitters in those five games.
I would still play it if there are at least four lefties in Wednesday’s lineup. The Mariners also have some right-handed hitters who are capable of doing damage. Julio Rodriguez and Ty France are both swinging hot bats lately. Both players have at least eight hits including five extra-base hits over the last seven days. And Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez both profile well against Schmidt’s primary offerings to righties. Schmidt throws either a sweeper or sinker 72.8 percent of the time to righties. Rodriguez and Hernandez each have an xBA of .293 or higher against both pitches. Ultimately, I think the Mariners find a way to scratch out a handful of hits against Schmidt in this matchup.