Welcome to the final installment of my weekly MLB player props column for the 2023 season. At the risk of sounding conceited, I could not be happier with the results this year. I have hit a majority of props in 16 of the previous 19 articles. My overall record on props published in these articles is 38-17 with two props voided. By any measure, this column has been a rousing success. I hope I have helped a few of you along the way. Let us keep the good vibes going and end this series with a bang! Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday’s slate.
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Top MLB Player Props for August 30
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+135, DraftKings)
The early lines on Bryce Harper’s props make no sense to me considering his recent form. Harper has not only cleared his total base prop in seven of eight games on the Phillies’ current homestand, but he has registered at least four total bases in all seven of those games. On Wednesday, Harper and the Phillies will face Reid Detmers. The splits for both Harper and Detmers suggest Harper should have the edge in this matchup. Harper is hitting .386 with a .719 slugging percentage when facing a southpaw at Citizens Bank Park this season. Detmers allows a .604 slugging percentage when facing left-handed hitters on the road. Harper has an xSLG of .490 or higher against all three of Detmers’ pitches. Both Harper and Detmers have slightly lower walk rates when facing same-handed opponents.
There are also some narratives at play in Harper’s favor as well regarding this matchup. Harper is now sitting at 299 career home runs. Wednesday marks the end of Philadelphia’s homestand. It would make sense for Harper to try to hit his 300th long ball among the Phillie faithful. I expect Harper to be a bit more aggressive than normal in this game given the circumstances. On the other side of the diamond, the Los Angeles Angels effectively waived the white flag on their season on Tuesday. Wednesday marks the end of an East Coast trip for the Halos. They will travel back across the country to California after this game. Given the matchup and situations these teams find themselves in, things could get ugly in a hurry for the Angels.
If you want a safer way to ride Harper’s hot streak, you can play him to go over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI. That price currently sits at -135 on DraftKings. Harper has gone over this number in all eight games of the homestand, including seven games with four or more H+R+RBI. The Phillies have a 131 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers over the past 14 days. And that does not include Tuesday’s effort when they roughed up Tyler Anderson for six runs in five innings. I think there are multiple ways to attack this matchup, but I am taking Bryce Harper to record two or more total bases as my top MLB player prop for Wednesday.
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110, DraftKings, FanDuel)
Padres-at-Cardinals-Props
Padres-at-Cardinals-Props
Paul Goldschmidt has recorded two or more total bases in three straight, five of six, and six of nine. Goldschmidt has a relatively low .437 slugging percentage against left-handers this year. But that number increases to .517 in home games versus lefties. He also has hit 10 of his 22 homers this year in day games. In addition, Goldschmidt has an incredibly strong history against Wednesday’s starter for the Padres, Rich Hill. The veterans have faced off 29 times in their careers. Goldschmidt is 12-for-26 with three home runs and three walks in their head-to-head matchups.
Hill has struggled mightily since coming over from the Pittsburgh Pirates last month. He has pitched just 14 innings in four starts as a member of the Padres. In that span, Hill has allowed 18 hits and 14 earned runs. Given Hill’s recent struggles and poor history against Goldschmidt, there is some walk risk here. You can bet Goldschmidt to record a walk at +140 on DraftKings as a hedge or even a standalone prop. I listed both DraftKings and FanDuel because they are the same price. However, FanDuel does not void if a player does not start, so it makes more sense to play this MLB player prop on DraftKings as long as the prices do not move too much in the morning.
Davis Schneider OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120, DraftKings)
The legend of Davis Schneider and his magnificent mustache continues to grow. Schneider burst on the scene in early August, racking up nine hits in his first three games. He then cooled off and often found himself on the bench as Bo Bichette returned from the Injured List. But Bichette injured his quad recently and is back on the IL. That has given Schneider another chance at glory, and he has not disappointed. Since being reinserted into Toronto’s starting lineup over the weekend, Schneider has eight hits in four games. Six of those eight hits have gone for extra bases. Schneider has a great chance to keep the hits coming when he faces Patrick Corbin on Wednesday.
Corbin is ceding a .494 SLG to righties this year, including a .547 mark on the road. He ranks in the second percentile in the Majors in xSLG allowed. Schneider hit second in Toronto’s order on Tuesday, and I expect the same on Wednesday. This is a great spot in the lineup for Schneider to thrive in. Though Vladimir Guerrero has secretly been bad against left-handers this year from a power perspective, his reputation precedes him. Though Schneider has a great eye at the plate, Corbin will want to attack him to avoid facing Guerrero with men on base. I expect Schneider to get the best out of this matchup. Washington’s bullpen is also nothing to write home about. They have allowed 1.86 HR/9 and a 21.1 HR/FB rate in August. Both numbers are the highest in the Majors.