Let me open by saying that this was a ton of fun. Almost as much fun as hearing the crack of the bat or a ball smacking into a leather glove. Almost. When I first had the idea to do this, I had one aspect that I wanted to focus on and hammer home. Live looks. There have been plenty of mock drafts out there featuring MLB top prospects, but I wanted to focus on people, like myself, that are at the field getting first-hand looks at these prospects.
So, I went through my contacts, twitter messages, and that mushy thing between my ears that sometimes works and started reaching out to people that cover prospects and get to the field early and often. There are plenty out there, but these are the 16 writers/analysts that it came down to. A star-studded lineup, if I do say so myself. I would use a Murder’s row reference, but I’m a Red Sox fan, so none of that.
All of the people participating in this are people I have the utmost respect for as writers and prospect analysts. I encourage you all to follow each of them if you aren’t already and read/watch as much of their work as you can (along with mine of course). There’s a lot of great analysts out there to give you your prospect fix. I urge you to utilize them all.
Mock Draft Participants/Draft Order
1. Jason Pennini (@JasonPennini) – Prospects Live
2. Eddy Almaguer (@EddyAlmaguer) – Prospects Live
3. Scott Greene (@Scotty_Ballgame) – Prospects 1500
4. Connor Kurcon (@ckurcon) – Six Man Rotation
5. Jason Woodell (@JasonAtTheGame)- Prospects Live
6. Chris Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) – Prospect One
7. John Calvagno (@SALNotes) – Notes From the Sally
8. Eric Cross (@EricCross04) – FantraxHQ
9. Andy Singleton (@Peoplezpen) – Razzball
10. Chris Blessing (@C_Blessing) – Baseball HQ
11. Ralph Lifshitz (@ProspectJesus)- Prospects Live
12. Matt Thompson (@mdthompFWFB)- Prospects Live
13. Ray Butler (@Prospects365) – Prospects 365
14. Rhys White (@RhysBWhite) – Six Man Rotation
15. James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) – Rotowire
16. Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBrozdow)- Prospects Live
The point of this all is to get past the numbers and all the unnecessary garbage. Numbers are fine and all, and I myself use them, but numbers are far from the whole story when it comes to prospects. For a good example of this, look at Noah Syndergaard. He had a 4.60 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 10.4 H/9 during his final full minor league season back in 2014 for Triple-A Las Vegas. People forget that the PCL is notorious for being very hitter-friendly. Since then, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. And on the flip side, we have Byron Buxton. Need I say more?
That’s why my focus for this was on the first-hand looks. Numbers can’t tell you if a slugger is incorporating his lower half in his swing, if a pitcher is extending enough, or if a shortstop has the range and arm strength to remain at the position long term. You have to get your rear end down to the field and put the work in.
Alright, enough rambling. Let’s get mocking!
Prospects Mock Draft
By Team in Top-100
11: San Diego
8: Tampa Bay
7: Atlanta
5: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays
4: Cincinnati, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota, Texas
3: Arizona, Cleveland, Colorado, Detroit, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Washington
2: Baltimore, Kansas City, New York Yankees, Philadelphia, St. Louis
1: Miami, Milwaukee, San Francisco
0: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Seattle
By Team Overall
San Diego (28), New York Yankees (25), Tampa Bay (24), Cleveland (23), Texas (20), Atlanta/Miami/St. Louis/Toronto (19), Minnesota/Philadelphia (18), Chicago White Sox/Kansas City (17), Houston/Los Angeles Dodgers (16), Cincinnati/Los Angeles Angels/New York Mets/Oakland (15), Arizona/Boston/Detroit (14), Milwaukee/Pittsburgh (12), Baltimore/Chicago Cubs/Colorado (11), San Francisco (10), Washington (7), Seattle (6).
Participant Recaps
Eric Cross – Fantrax (@EricCross04)
With this star-studded cast, I knew I was going to get sniped plenty. Everyone here knows their stuff so it was bound to happen. With my first pick at #8 overall, I stupidly hoped that Wander Franco would fall to me. Nope, no such luck, but I hapily took my #6 overall prospect in Royce Lewis here. With two 60-grade of better tools (hit, speed) and developing power, he’s one name I can see making the leap into the top-3 by this time next season.
In the second round, I wanted a power bat and was targeting my boy Nolan Gorman, but again, he went before my pick so I grabbed the 2018 minor league home run king (tied) in Peter Alonso, followed by my top overall dynasty catcher, Joey Bart, in round three at #40 overall. Dylan Cease fell to be in the 4th round following a dominant 2018 campaign. I have him well inside my top-50 overall, so this felt like great value to me.
My Favorite Picks – One of my favorite picks of the draft had to be Hunter Greene at 7.89. The elbow woes do cause some concern, but this is a potential ace in the back end of the top-100 due to his electric heater and developing secondary pitches. Logan Allen at 9.136 seemed like good value as well. He doesn’t get quite the same pub as other top-notch hurlers, but his three above-average to plus offerings and solid command have him within my top-100 overall.
Cavan Biggio fell big time in this draft. I was looking at him for a few rounds before I actually took him at 12.185. The power is legit and I’m a big fan of his plate discipline that led to a 17.8% walk rate for Double-A New Hampshire this season. Sure, the hit tool needs some work and you’d like to see him limit his strikeouts better, but this is a .250/.380/.500 type of hitter with 25-30 HR upside and enough speed to steal 10-15 bags annually.
Other picks that I liked the value on were Shane McClanahan (20.313), Yu Chang (24.377), Nick Decker (28.441), and Alec Hansen (29.456).
My Favorite Picks Made by Others: Garrett Hampson (4.50 – James Anderson), Nate Pearson (5.80 – Lance Brozdowski), Mark Vientos (6.90 – John Calvagno), Malcom Nunez (11.171 – Ralph Lifshitz), Akil Baddoo (12.190 – Scott Greene), Brock Deatherage (17.261 – Jason Woodell).
John Calvagno – Notes from the Sally (@SALNotes)
It was a thrill to be a part of the #ProspectMock480, Eric assembled a very talented group of prospectors, including many of my favorites in the industry.
In the early rounds of the mock, I was content taking high profile players that were slipping into the bargain range: Robles at #7, Rodgers at #26 and Alex Reyes at #39. From there I wanted to target the top players from the Sally and Appy, as long as the value made sense. I didn’t get all of my targets here but rounds 4-9 were some of the top talents from my region and I liked the value of each player where I got them: Drew Waters, Oneil Cruz, Mark Vientos, Heliot Ramos, MJ Melendez, and Shervyen Newton.
After Newton in round 9, I had reached a new tier on my regional board and I didn’t love the value in the 150 range. So I went for best available using James Anderson’s and Ralph Lifshitz’s big boards, nabbing Travis Swaggerty, (my jam) Anderson Espinoza and Joe Palumbo. From there I mostly went best available from the leagues I cover, hopefully shining a light on some talented but under the radar players. And with the last few picks, I nabbed a few kids I’m looking forward to watching in 2019.
Scott Greene – Prospects1500 (@ScottyBallgame)
You usually won’t see someone pick 4 SS’s out of his first 5 picks, but… since we were drafting based on “best prospect available,” that’s exactly what I did. Fernando Tatis, Jr. was my 1st choice (3rd overall behind Vlad and Eloy) but I just couldn’t pass up on these other solid talents in the early rounds.
Following my 2nd round grab (Chris Paddack) I was targeting Washington’s, Luis Garcia. I got him with the 3rd pick in the 3rd round (35th overall) which may have been a little reach, but I knew Rotowire’s James Anderson loves him and was definitely going to snag him if I didn’t. Anderson currently has Garcia ranked 17th overall on his Top 400 Fantasy Baseball Prospects list.
Then I couldn’t help but take Gavin Lux and Kevin Smith with my next two picks. They both had great 2018 seasons, their stat lines showed improvement for the levels they were playing at, and I figured I really didn’t need another middle infielder for the rest of the draft (although I drafted one other – Anderson Tejeda in the 19th round).
My spot 3rd overall made it an interesting one knowing that each time it came back to me I had two of the next six picks, with only Eddy Almaguer and Jason Pennini taking players in between my picks. I almost always got the two players I was targeting at my turn as I soon learned that Eddy and Jason were usually looking at other factors in determining their prospects choices in this huge mock draft.
To touch on some of my other favorite picks based on draft position, overall value and chance to follow up 2018 with solid 2019 season, here are a few others:
Bobby Dalbec (11.3, 163 overall) – Bobby Dalbombs as some of us Red Sox fans like to call him. Huge power that could play in the majors. We just have to see if he can follow up his big 2018 and there are many who think he’s not going to hit better than .220/.230. I put him in the .250/.260 range with 30+ HR power.
Akil Baddoo (12.14, 190 overall) – I honestly thought Baddoo should have been taken just outside of the Top 100. After landing a few of the other guys on my list in rounds 8-11 I couldn’t pass on Baddoo any longer. The Twins OF prospect has the tools to be an all-around star. He struggled some in Cedar Rapids (A, Midwest League) in 2018 hitting only .243, but I like the 11 HR, 40 RBI, and 24 SB. I think he can build on that and improve the AVG too.
Buddy Reed (17.3, 259 overall) – How does the MVP of the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game fall this far? The Middletown, RI native split 2018 between A+/AA and had 13 HR, 62 RBI, and 51 SB, although he only slashed .271/.319/.435. I guess all the other guys in the mock didn’t like the slash line and don’t expect him to improve on those numbers. I’m guessing they also passed on him because he was 23 in Double-A.
Colin Poche (22.14, 350 overall) and Kyle Dohy (29.3, 451 overall) – Honestly, I may have been the only guy out of 16 that was looking at dominant relief pitchers. Maybe left-handed RPs are harder to project than other top pitching prospects, but I’m not sleeping on their eye-popping stats. Poche, 24, was 6-0 between AA/AAA, with 110 K in 66 IP (15 K/9) and a 0.82 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Dominance! Dohy, 22, put up similar numbers over 3 levels (A/A+/AA) with 111 K in 67.1 IP (14.8 K/9).
Two other picks I want to touch on are Austin Allen (25.3, 387 overall) and Brailyn Marquez (30.14, 478 overall). Shout out to Ben Wilson (@TBDubbs11) for showing me the way on Allen. With Ronaldo Hernandez (7.3, 99) the only other catcher on my roster, Allen certainly fits nicely in this spot. He had a good season at Double-A San Antonio (22 HR, 56 RBI, .290 AVG) and could be on track to reach San Diego in 2019, depending on how Francisco Mejia fares.
Marquez was my final pick in the 30th round and he’s considered by some to be in the Cubs Top-5 prospects. He’s a 19-year-old coming off 10 starts with Short-Season Eugene in the Northwest League and then two starts for South Bend in the Midwest League. Combined he put up a 3.13 ERA, struck out 59 in 54.2 IP. He should spend most of 2019 between A/A+ and will be fun to monitor his progress. A very late round steal in my book!
Thanks to Eric Cross for assembling this group of prospecting minds and including me to represent Prospects1500.
James Anderson – Rotowire (@RealJRAnderson)
My picks: This was a very strong group of participants, so, unfortunately, nobody “fell” to me in the first two rounds. Even when I did start to get good values (according to my rankings), I was not surprised, just knowing how much higher I am than the pack on some of these guys. Matt Manning, DL Hall, Tyler Freeman, Francisco Morales and Jake Fraley were five guys I was very confident I would end up with. That’s the thing about an exercise like this, if you’re prepared, you should get a ton of “your guys”. You could probably show these final 30-prospect rosters to 10 different people and get 10 different responses for who had the best draft, which is how it should be.
My best pick: DL Hall at pick No. 114. I have him ranked inside my top 50.
Best overall pick: So many options here, but I’ll go with Ray Butler’s Ke’Bryan Hayes selection with the No. 77 overall pick. He is in my top 25, so that’s excellent value. Honorable mention to Matt Thompson getting Jhon Torres at pick 204.
Approach: I maintain my top 400 prospect rankings year round, so I’m leaning heavily on that in any exercise like this. This mock was particularly helpful for me, however, given where it fell in the calendar, as I got to battle test my rankings before finalizing them in the RotoWire baseball magazine. On roughly 75 percent of my picks I took the top player available on my rankings, but on another 25 percent, I found myself moving players up my board when push came to shove.
Chris Blessing – BaseballHQ (@C_Blessing)
In mock drafts, I try to draft as if this is for keeps. Priority one is to get a potential game-changing top prospect in round 1. Check. Angels OF Jo Adell is a top 5 fantasy prospect. In a draft with media types who grind at the park like much of the group does, I knew my advantage would be finding their scouting bias and figuring out where there were coverage outages. I hit the Texas League and the Midwest League hard, knowing guys would be undervalued because the coverage in those leagues amongst the group (as a whole) was lacking.
I made some strategic conservative picks as well, especially when the guys hit the lower minors hard early and often. Don’t get me wrong, I still went after guys I liked and picked Mets OF Jarred Kelenic just to get one of my Appy targets, even though it was about 2 or 3 rounds earlier than I had him ranked. I let the other owners take the big chances as I preferred the Mike Soroka’s and the Daz Cameron’s over the hot complex names.
My team is consistent with my recent roster-building strategies, even though, I only own Angels OF Brandon Marsh, Rays IF Lucius Fox, and White Sox OF Micker Adolfo in multiple formats. I want a mix of upside and floor. This team is just that. My favorite pick was Royals RHP Yelfri Del Rosario in round 19. I just love the potential with finish beyond his years. My biggest regret wasn’t targeting enough catchers. I chose three, Dodgers Will Smith, Athletics Sean Murphy, and White Sox Seby Zavala, but should have targeted five, considering 30 slots and the struggles finding quality regulars at the position.
As we got later in the draft, I made some heart picks. I picked a dude one of my best friends in baseball was the signing scout for and a guy I really like who I scouted as an associate scout this past spring. It’s okay targeting those heart picks late. My final pick, Giants RHP Ben Madison, I targeted as my last pick. I had some good reads and intel on Madison. It’s my most speculative pick.
Connor Kurcon – Six Man Rotation (@ckurcon)
Overall, I thought my draft went pretty well. I got the honor of picking 4th, which made it easy for me to plan, as I knew Vlad, Tatis, and Eloy would go 1-2-3. Ended up going with Kyle Tucker at #4 over Wander Franco, who was picked one pick later. Franco has the potential to be what Vlad Jr is now in 2019, however, for me, the hit/speed/power combo from Tucker, plus the fact that he’s been MLB ready for some time had me selecting him 4th overall.
My general plan was to only take 2-3 pitchers in the top 200 or so, electing to select some more personal favorites that I knew would be there later on in the draft, such as Daniel Lynch at pick 196, who I think has the chance to be one of the best pitchers from the 2018 draft should the velocity uptick he saw after signing hold through 2019.
A few other favorite picks of mine were Vidal Brujan at pick 36, Jazz Chisholm at 125, Dylan Carlson at pick 260, and Jose Suarez at pick 413. Brujan has a chance to become another barrel control/speed guy we’ve been seeing emerge around baseball, in the mold of Ozzie Albies. Gun-to-head, Jazz would be my favorite pick in the draft, as I think he’s an easy top-100 guy for fantasy and I got him a good range outside of that. Tore up High-A as a 20-year-old, will stick at short, and has a real chance to erupt into the spotlight in 2019.
Dylan Carlson gets perpetually underrated. Bat speed and barrel control from the left side and another guy that more than held his own at High-A as a 19-year-old this year; the offensive potential is high for a pick in the mid-200’s. Jose Suarez is not a pick with oozing with upside, but as a lefty with 4 pitches, a bump in velocity (t95), and a better breaking ball this season, he’s a pretty sure bet to be at least a #4 starting pitcher, which is all anyone can possibly be looking for at pick 400+ if they’re honest with themselves. If the command gets better, he could have some #3 SP years.
I had a good time with this draft overall, and I look forward to any future ones.
Rhys White – Six Man Rotation (@RhysBWhite)
Before we get into what my plan was for the draft and how it actually turned out, I wanted to say thank you to Eric Cross for putting this on and for fitting me in this mock with so many great prospect minds (minus Connor Kurcon, my co-prospect analyst at Six Man Rotation). My strategy for #prospectmock480 was to target hitters with good hit tools and to wait on pitchers, and spoiler alert I picked a pitcher with my first pick (shrug emoji).
So I went with the best pitching prospect in all the land to start my draft, as I along with most of the prospect community believe Forrest Whitley has ace upside. I followed that up with Keston Hiura who is an easy plus-plus hitter with emerging power. Then came my spiciest pick of the draft as I will admit I did reach for Kristian Robinson at the 46th overall pick but his tantalizing tools were too much to pass on as he has plus raw power and the chance for plus speed when he breaks into the majors (side note I should not have more twitter followers than Kristian Robinson).
After my spicy pick, I went with three straight prospects who I project out as plus hitters with above average power starting with Dodgers catching prospect Keibert Ruiz, followed by Tigers infield prospect Isaac Paredes, and finishing with O’s prospect Ryan Mountcastle who probably ends up in left field because of his below average arm.
As the unofficial president of the Nico Hoerner fan club, I really liked where I got him with the 142nd overall pick. I believe Hoerner has more than enough range to play shortstop and has the requisite arm strength to stick there, it’s the bat however that gets me excited about the former Stanford Cardinal. Hoerner had one of the more interesting profiles pre-draft as he was someone that showed power with wood bats during the Cape and other collegiate wood bat leagues but that power never materialized when he was playing for Stanford.
Now while he only had 60 plate appearances in pro ball he did slash .327/.450/.527 across three levels, he did mash two homers and stole himself six bases. Hoerner like many college hitters drafted in the first round should be a quick mover through the minors and it just so happens Hoerner went to an organization that has shown a propensity to get the most out of highly drafted college hitters.
After the 10th round I went out and started to grab some pitchers who I deemed to have significant upside and that’s apparent when I drafted freshly signed Starlyn Castillo in the 19th round. The super young Phillies right-hander was their top signee from the rost recent J2 crop and reports are that he has the potential for two plus pitches in the fastball-slider combination. He is on the smaller side as the young Dominican hurler is listed at 6 foot, but he has electric stuff and is in an organization that will give the requisite time to develop.
I usually don’t invest in recent J2 pitchers in my dynasty leagues but I thought if this were to be a league I could sit on Castillo for a few years and draft some closer to the majors pitching prospects later, like Christian Javier in the 28th round and Milwaukee’s Zack Brown in the 29th.
To conclude how I think my team came together, I really liked the farm system I was able to assemble from the 14th spot in the draft. I ended up drafting 10 pitchers which are way more than I honestly was anticipating, however, I liked where I got each of them. The hitters I managed to assemble are either polished hitters with a plus hit tool or Monte Harrison (insert laugh track). If I was invited to a startup dynasty draft where we separately drafted majors and minors I would be extremely happy coming away with this squad
Thanks again to Eric for inviting me to be part of such a great group of prospectors, who you all need to follow before you follow this bum. You can follow me on twitter @RhysBWhite and feel free to ask me any prospect related question.
Eddy Almaguer – Prospects Live (@EddyAlmaguer)
For my first eight picks, I drafted guys I already owned across several dynasty leagues like Antonio Cabello, Bryse Wilson, and Jonathan Loaisiga. But I realized that was a mistake because, among a group of great prospectors, it presented an opportunity to see where some of my favorite players (Dustin May, K.Lee, A.Beck) would get drafted as opposed to making myself the “ADP Enforcer”. As such, for the remainder of the draft, I opted for bats and pitchers I liked but didn’t own anywhere.
Overall I aimed for primarily bats that excel in the on-base percentage because it gives someone an out if the hit tool doesn’t manifest completely. And, well, I play in a metric ton of OBP leagues so I inherently have that bias. That’s why I drafted guys like Sherten Apostel, Cal Stevenson, and Cole Roederer up top and to an extent Jose Fermin, Connor Joe, and Heriberto Hernandez near the end.
Because speed is diminishing in the game, I wasn’t afraid to pop speed demons like Myles Straw, Rochest Cruz, and even Cole Tucker. Don’t be afraid to roster one-dimensional guys in your farm system because they will likely return more value than you think.
For my pitching, I opted for the underappreciated guys as opposed to the top arms. I only drafted eight pitchers (and all righties, though not on purpose) and outside of Deivi Garcia, they’re of the variety that lack much pedigree but are consistently producing. Guys like Taylor Widener, Tony Gonsolin and Jordan Yamamoto aren’t going to be centerpieces of a fantasy trade, but they’re the SP3s and SP4s that will ensure you have a deep staff that’s ready to contribute soon.
Photo/Video Credit:
Eric Cross is the lead MLB writer and prospect analyst here on FantraxHQ and has been with the site since March 2017. In the past, he wrote for FantasyPros and FanSided. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). For more from Eric, check out his author page and follow him on Twitter @EricCross04.