We are almost through Week 1 of the NFL season. The only game left on the slate is the MNF Showdown: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers vs. Josh Allen. Garrett Wilson vs. Stefon Diggs. All of the storylines and predictions go out the window. It’s time to play the game.
Every week, we’ll preview the Monday Night Football matchup and make sure you get all the information you need to know to perfect your starts/sits, prop bets, and DFS lineups. Let’s get into it!
MNF Preview: Bills vs. Jets
What You Need To Know:
Weather Will Be a Non-Factor
This won’t be a repeat of the Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants last night in the Sunday Night Football matchup. We shouldn’t expect fiftyleven fumbles due to rainy conditions. Tonight’s matchup will be perfect football weather. We’re looking at around 70 degrees (F), wind gusts less than 10 MPH, and a less than 20% chance of rain by kickoff. The weather shouldn’t have any relevance.
Expect Underperformance In the Running Game for Both Teams
If you’re like me, you expected Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, and James Cook to have extremely solid, if not league-winning seasons. If that’s the case, it won’t be a result of tonight’s matchup. Pro Football Focus rates the Buffalo Bills to be at a 39% disadvantage at the line of scrimmage vs. the Jets Defensive line in run situations (3rd worst matchup in this week’s slate). The Jets suffer a similar fate as PFF rates the Jets offensive line at a 33% disadvantage vs. the Bills Defensive Line in run situations (5th worst matchup in this week’s slate). I wouldn’t put Dalvin Cook or James Cook in any “Captain” positions in DFS lineups, and you should consider taking “Unders” on prop bet rushing totals. Breece Hall looks to be on a snap count early this season (regardless of how Jets HC Salah wants to word it), and he shouldn’t be on your radar for a big night either.
WR/CB Matchups
On the Jets, the only WR to target OVERs in prop bets and DFS is Garrett Wilson. He’s drawn rave reviews from Aaron Rodgers in both interviews and practice clips we’ve seen from HBO’s Hard Knocks. Rodgers likens Wilson to what he had in Green Bay with Davante Adams. He doesn’t have to say things like that, so that’s high praise, and we should expect him to lead the team in targets. Between Wilson, Lazard, and Hardman, PFF ranked Wilson as the only receiver with a “Good” matchup as he’s expected to see Benford and White for most of his snaps. PFF ranked Lazard and Hardman as “Below Average” WR/CB matchups as they’ll see Benford/White/Johnson. Expect Wilson to be peppered with 10+ targets. He’s shown how fantasy-relevant he can be with bad quarterback play. I expect bigger things with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.
As for the Bills, PFF rated Stefon Diggs as having a “Below Average” matchup, and Gabe Davis and Deonte Harty as having “Poor” matchups. It’s going to be rough sledding as the Bills WR corp has to face off vs. the vaunted Jets secondary. Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Carter II all have their claims to be one of the league’s top corners this year. Stefon Diggs will likely see his most targets with Reed and Carter covering him, which we can expect to be a majority of his snaps. However, my favorite wide receiver to target out of this group is probably Deonte Harty as he’s minimum-priced in DFS, which takes a lot of sting out of the poor matchup, and he’s lightning-quick and will receive plenty of underneath dump-off targets from Josh Allen trying to avoid coverage sacks. The reason he’s minimum-priced in DFS is due to the fact Khalil Shakir could’ve beat him out for the starting slot position. We will have to wait and see, but I’m taking my chances!
Three Potentially Viable TE Options
The TE position could be incredibly important in DFS tonight, or if you need a TE to stream for your fantasy matchup. We’ve already mentioned how both defensive lines are going to have their way with the offensive line tonight in the run game. We’ve already mentioned that with the exception of Garrett Wilson, all the receivers have average matchups at best. The scales could be tipped at TE as PFF ranks Williams (the coverage linebacker for the Jets) and Dodson (the coverage linebacker for the Bills), as disadvantaged linebackers when covering Dawson Knox and Tyler Conklin. The question is how many snaps will Dalton Kincaid get over/with Knox, and will he be the first, second, third, or fourth read for Josh Allen. There are only a handful of TEs that are ever worth fantasy consideration, but tonight’s matchup may be one of those scenarios where the TE matters offensively.
Conclusion:
Jets Win a Close, Low-Scoring Game
DFS Selection Pool:
Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Deonte Harty, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Conklin, Bills D/ST, and Jets D/ST
Prop Bets: Running Back Rushing Total UNDERs and TE Receiving OVERs