Two weeks ago, we explored 5 Players Whose Fantasy Values are Hidden by Full-Season Stats. In that piece, 5 players whose overall numbers did not align with their performance over their last 30 games were re-evaluated. All of them were relatively under the radar. The purpose of the article was to feature misevaluated players that have been fooling skippers with deceiving full-season stats that fail to tell the whole story (ie: hot hitters who have had a rough season overall). This, of course, enabled ambitious fantasy managers to stay ahead of the game and see past what they thought they knew about the written-off players.
Without further ado, here is the second edition. Let us again investigate 8 hitters–some hot and others not–with deceiving full-season stats, who over their past 30 games, have defied what their overall season statistics say about their fantasy value and might be fooling you.
*Please note that all statistics featured are up to date entering play on July 21st*
More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
8 Hitters Whose Last 30 Games Defy What You Think About Them
Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter has been one of the few bright spots on the dismal Tigers. Slashing .264/.323/.506 in 54 games, there is no doubt the outfielder has exceeded everyone’s expectations and impressed thus far. However, with relatively low roster rates, it is clear he has yet to make a name for himself in fantasy. For the sake of skippers everywhere, that is quite a shame.
After all, over his last 30 games, Carpenter has posted exceptional power numbers by slashing .250/.357/.522 with 7 HR and 21 RBI. Specifically, over his last 7, he is hitting .280 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. With his roster rates climbing steadily, do not let the fact he is still one of the league’s no-name hot hitters fool you, the time to stash Carpenter is right now.
A year ago around this time, Kerry Carpenter was a few weeks into his Triple-A Toledo stint hoping to get a late-season look. After 17 HR over his first 80 MLB games, he's looking more and more like part of the long-term solution to Tigers offense:https://t.co/cA1DGLUjOB
— Jason Beck (@beckjason) July 16, 2023
Kris Bryant, OF, Colorado Rockies
With star power attached to his name, Bryant’s line of .254/.332/.383 to go along with 8 HR and 23 RBI in 63 games has been enough to satisfy skippers who took a chance on Bryant in the middle rounds. After all, he has been serviceable thus far through limited action.
Despite that, over his last 30, he has fallen below what most fantasy managers can tolerate, slashing .198/.268/.293 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. Coupled with being on the Rockies, in spite of his tempting superstar track record, Bryant is probably not worth it as it stands today.
Danny Jansen, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Without question, the most impactful day of the Blue Jays’ offseason came on Christmas Eve, when Ross Atkins and co. dealt fan favorite Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and highly touted catcher, Gabriel Moreno, to the D-backs for Daulton Varsho. One of the driving factors behind the trade, of course, was to clear out playing time for Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen after the duo posted very promising numbers in 2022. Six months removed, however, the two backstops have disappointed (Jansen: .226/.284/.451, 11 HR, 40 RBI), (Kirk: .241/.322/.321, 4 HR, 24 RBI). Because of those numbers, Jansen and Kirk find themselves surprisingly available.
However, while Kirk is hitting an awful .154 over his last 15 and .236 in 30, Jansen is really heating up. Slashing .263/.307/.547 with 7 HR and 19 RBI over his last 30 games and coming through in the clutch for Toronto more often than not. Expect Jansen’s overall numbers to surge upward in the next few weeks. Likewise, as a coveted, offensively competent power catcher there is little doubt his roster rates will too skyrocket. On that note, recall that Jansen has always been on the streaky side, meaning he has historically presented skippers a golden opportunity to capitalize whenever he catches fire. As such, despite his overallnumbers, securing Jansen’s services immediately is a must before it is too late.
There it is, the big hit.
Danny Jansen, the most underrated player on this roster, breaks it wide open with a bases-loaded double for the #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/ujf9nLbMoL
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) July 16, 2023
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres
With his gold glove defense holding down San Diego’s outfield, Grisham continues to see everyday ABs despite slashing .220/.331/.407 with 6 HR, 24 RBI, and 10 steals. Considering Grisham hit just .184 over 150 last year, do not expect that to change. Regardless, by providing managers with little value offensively, he is readily available on waivers.
Having said that, over his last 30 games, Grisham is hitting a solid .278/.381/.515 with 4 HR and 15 RBI. Specifically, over his last 7, he is sporting a .348 average, a 1.247 OPS, and 2 steals. While not life-changing, because he remains in line for everyday playing time, Grisham is worth a look as a streaming option over the next week or two while he is one of baseball’s hot hitters.
Corey Julks, OF, Houston Astros
Slashing an inviting, albeit not overly interesting .270/.317/.390 with 6 HR, 30 RBI, and 15 SB, rookie Corey Julks has established himself as a fantasy asset. In fact, despite playing on the reigning World Series champs, Julks has beaten the odds to play in most of Houston’s games this year. Still, with low roster rates, it is clear there is still plenty of hesitancy surrounding the outfielder.
Based on his recent play, however, the time to be confident is right now. That is because, over his last 30, he is slashing an enticing .286/.375/.367 with 1 HR and 8 RBI to go along with a solid 7 steals. For that reason, even if his full-season stats are cause for uncertainty, Julks is absolutely worth a look as a streaming option right now.
Corey Julks has reached base safely in 16 of his last 18 games. He’s hitting .371 with 13 runs scored and a .466 on-base over that span.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 16, 2023
Alex Verdugo, OF, Boston Red Sox
With lots of doubt surrounding Verdugo going into the season, the outfielder silenced his critics with a triumphant month of April (.305 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI). In fact, overall this year, Verdugo is still hitting a solid .280/.352/.441 with 7 HR and 39 RBI, inspiring some confidence among his fantasy skippers. Yet lurking beyond the monster seats at Fenway is the mystery of what happened to Verdugo after the weather began to warm.
While he has a somewhat expected 7 HR to his name on the season, he has hit just 3 since April. In fact, after a decent first three months, his average has to been flatlining, hitting a disappointing .146 in July. Even though the savant numbers are mostly in his favor and the outfielder undoubtedly remains an asset, it may be time to take a deep breath on Verdugo and recognize his full-season stats are certainly not reflecting the value of his recent play.
CJ Cron, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Coming off of a 29-HR and 102-RBI 2022, Cron is slashing a mediocre .251/.296/.466 with 10 HR and 29 RBI so far through 53 games. Hence, his roster rates this year have dropped to a level that is equally pedestrian. Although he has been decent so far and has the track record to go along with it, Cron simply finds himself available because he has failed to move the needle for most managers.
Yet once again, a look into his last 30 reveals he has been red-hot as of late. In fact, over his last 16, Cron has been one of baseball’s premier hot hitters. In that span, Cron is hitting a commanding .309 with 4 HR and 9 RBI. With the first baseman making a strong case for a trade out of Denver, looking past Cron’s deceiving overall stats is a must. On waivers, the slugger is someone to add immediately and also serves as a good buy-low candidate in leagues where he is not available.
CJ Cron with a two-run blast! pic.twitter.com/rPLspVEP5c
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 21, 2023
Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Last on our list and last in the Blue Jays’ batting order, Kevin Kiermaier has proven his worth offensively so far this season. Perhaps baseball’s most surprising source of everyday offense, he is now slashing .270/.331/.747 with 4 HR, 21 RBI, and 11 SB. Having proven himself as one of the league’s premier No. 9 hitters, there is no doubt the center fielder has impressed this year. Naturally, with this kind of offense, at the start of the year, Kiermaier’s roster rates began to climb drastically as he proved among the best of the everyday, hot hitters available on waivers back in April.
However, a look into his last 30 is very revealing. With a slash line of .205/.280/.260 in that span, he has certainly cooled off. Additionally, with a failure to get everyday ABs as of late because of load management, the gold glover’s value has been plummeting. As such, despite the center fielder’s brief hurrah as one of the young season’s hot hitters, Kiermaier’s deceiving full-season stats might be best found on the waiver wire right now.
⚾️ Home Run Derby Champion Signed Jersey Giveaway
Like and Comment below your Fantrax Username for a chance to win a Signed Vladimir Guerrero Jersey! pic.twitter.com/v4HHvwK0uO— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 13, 2023
>