When it comes to fantasy baseball, managing inconsistent and/or struggling pitching can be likened to the feeling of sailing through stormy waters; there never seems to be a clear direction. Inevitably, when faced with the situation, it can be almost impossible for skippers to decide what to do with their floundering arms. Ride them anyways? Bench them? Sell-high? Sell-low? Suffice to say, determining the best course of action, especially for starting pitchers, can be very difficult. In the spirit of that, let us explore the latest edition of My Last 30: Sizing Up 4 Struggling Starting Pitchers.
Below, the last 30 days (5 outings) of four starting pitchers, all of whom have struggled this season yet still offer significant fantasy potential, is scrutinized in an effort to assess their true fantasy value and to look beyond what are deceiving stats.
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4 Floundering Starters to Re-evaluate
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays
There is little need to regurgitate the well-documented plight of Alek Manoah’s 2023 season another time. After pitching to the tune of a 6.36 ERA, the third-place 2022 Cy Young finalist was sent to the minors at the beginning of June. A month later, he was called up once again and has since recorded a rough 5.02 ERA in three July starts to lower his season mark to 6.10, cementing what has been an utterly disappointing season.
Manoah, who seemed to have a considerable amount of fantasy baseball’s faith behind his return to the majors, has failed to enjoy a renaissance with his poor performance recently. His play so far this year has left skippers unsure of how to proceed. An analysis of the RHP’s last three starts reinforces the thinking that Manoah is probably not worth keeping around right now.
That is because, while a 5.02 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP since returning is not totally intolerable, his peripherals have been far from encouraging. Although his opponent’s average is down significantly to a mark of .204 in July and his strikeout stuff has returned to help him record 14 SO in 14.1 IP, his 9 BB in that span proves his control has left him.
Furthermore, with his baseball savant numbers at the forefront, a look into the data is very revealing. It shows that in every start, including his solid outing in Detroit, his disaster vs. San Diego, and his so-so appearance in Seattle, the velocity and the spin rate on all four of his pitches has been down considerably from his season average.
With such a bleak outlook, in non-dynasty leagues it may be time to bench, sell-low, or release Manoah.
Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles
Moving on from Manoah, O’s pitcher Dean Kremer might be even more of a head-scratcher. On the season, Kremer is throwing to the satisfactory tune of a 4.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 104 SO in 115.2 IP. Concerningly though, even though he has a terrific 10 wins, his splits reveal that he might be baseball’s most inconsistent pitcher. After all, with his rollercoaster monthly numbers (April: 6.67 ERA, May: 2.45, June: 5.91, July: 2.92), the question of how to proceed remains uncertain.
Fortunately, a look into his last 5 appearances suggests that streaming the previously struggling starting pitcher on an outing-by-outing basis is worthwhile. That is because, while Kremer has been painfully unreliable thus far and his statcast numbers are considerably below league average, he benefits greatly from being on the World Series caliber Orioles and tends to dominate when hot.
For instance, even though he has a poor 4.88 ERA to go along with a solid 1.12 WHIP and 27 SO over his last five starts, in three of those ( 7 IP and 1 ER @ NYY, 6 IP and 1 ER vs. MIA, 7 IP and 1 ER @ PHI) he has been extremely effective and collected 2 wins.
As such, provided skippers choose favorable match-ups at their own risk, Kremer is a solid streaming option to roster right now in spite of his reputation as one of baseball’s struggling starting pitchers.
Dean Kremer was 0-7 in 2021 & is 10-4 in 2023. Per STATS, he’s the only pitcher in the modern era with a 10-win season within two years after a winless season of 10 or more starts. Stump Weidman did it in 1882 by going 25-20 following an 0-9 1880 season. The more you know …
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) July 24, 2023
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
After beginning the year a champion alongside Shohei Ohtani back in March, it has become clear that the success Yu Darvish found during the WBC has not quite carried over to SoCal. With a 4.80 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7 W thus far, Darvish has been a disappointment to the skippers who took the 36-year-old in the early rounds. And while the 5x all-star has still managed to keep his calling card K% afloat (108 SO in 101.1 IP), getting past an overwhelming ERA is a tall order for most fantasy managers. For that reason, having to decide on Darvish right now can be likened to the life of an umpire.
Nevertheless, an analysis of his play suggests that his tenure as one of baseball’s struggling starting pitchers has concluded. While the numbers Darvish has recorded over his last five outings are equally as indecisive (4.98 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 2 W), his saving grace lies in Statcast. As eloquently displayed on baseball savant, it is clear the numbers still back him. Particularly, when considering his expected numbers are all above league average (xERA: 3.83, xBA: .237, xSLG: .376, xwOBA .304) and that he is also getting fewer barrels and more whiffs than the rest of baseball, his high value is evident.
Remember when Alex Cobb had his statcast numbers support him all season in 2022 despite an ugly line? He ended up finishing the season red-hot in August and September, and Darvish’s story this year feels remarkably similar.
As such, for skippers with an iron gut and a taste for risk, Darvish is worth it down the stretch as the year winds down.
Yu Darvish, Pretty 72mph Curveball. 🌈
6th K thru 4 pic.twitter.com/O80aPsAOxn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2023
Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
After attracting managers willing to bet on the strikeout extraordinaire, Kenta Maeda’s initial return after TJ surgery was disappointing. By posting an ERA of 9.00 through four April starts and then spending May on the IL, faith in Maeda quickly fled early on. Yet while his name quickly became grouped together with other struggling starting pitchers, the 2020 Cy Young runner-up still has more value than his 4.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP would indicate.
That is because, in spite of early struggles, Maeda has been solid over his last five starts. In that span, the righty has recorded a 2.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3 QS, and 36 SO in 27.2 IP. In fact, save for an ugly start on July 14 in Oakland, Maeda has been really sharp of late. However, considering his April numbers, it is impossible to avoid asking: is it too good to be true?
The answer, it would seem, is affirmative. After all, with just 48.2 IP and only 2 wins, patience is key. To that end, although Statcast reveals his strikeout stuff is elite, it also shows the quality of contact hitters are making against him is among the hardest in all of baseball. As a result, except for those in serious need of strikeouts, Maeda is probably an unfit option for most managers.
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