The NASCAR Cup Series sings a new tune this week in the Music City of Nashville, Tennessee! For the fourth straight year, we’ll see a driver take home the coveted guitar at Nashville Superspeedway. We’re a few weeks out from the “Olympics” break where the drivers get some much-needed time off. With NBC now providing TV coverage, the top stock car series doesn’t want to compete for ratings. With that said, if you don’t have a win before the Olympics break, you certainly want one. And with only four regular-season races after the break (and a total of eight remaining), there’s certainly pressure on some of these drivers to get a win. Fortunately, and we haven’t said this very often, weather isn’t a concern this weekend. So let’s take a look at the top drivers and lineup-building strategies with this week’s Ally 400 picks!
Ally 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Josh Berry (#4 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Brad Keselowski (#6 RFK Racing)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing)
- Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske)
Quite the group we have here for the Ally 400 picks! Larson, Hamlin, and Gibbs all made the Ally 400 preview earlier in the week. This is a surprising result though. Hamlin wasn’t great in practice. However, great teams make necessary adjustments and he laid down some great lap times in qualifying. With the Truck and Xfinity Series, we saw that clean air can greatly benefit anybody with the lead so that’s an advantage for Hamlin early on. And don’t forget, Hamlin won at Dover in April. I do think it’s worth mentioning that Ty Gibbs posted the fastest single-lap speed and was fourth in 10-lap average during practice. But there are plenty of dominators to consider within this group with Hamlin, Bell, Larson, Reddick, Byron, and Gibbs starting in the first four rows.
Which Value-Priced Ally 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Bubba Wallace – $7,800; Starting P24
- Daniel Suarez – $7,500; Starting P31
- Corey Heim – $7,200; Starting P29
- Todd Gilliland – $6,700; Starting P32
- Erik Jones – $6,600; Starting P34
- AJ Allmendinger – $6,500; Starting P28
- John Hunter Nemechek – $5,800; Starting P35
- Justin Haley – $5,600; Starting P33
- Daniel Hemric- $5,100; Starting P37
FanDuel
- Kyle Busch – $7,500; Starting P27
- Bubba Wallace – $7,200; Starting P24
- Daniel Suarez – $7,000; Starting P31
- Corey Heim – $5,800; Starting P29
- AJ Allmendinger – $5,500; Starting P28
- Erik Jones – $5,200; Starting P34
- Todd Gilliland – $5,000; Starting P32
- John Hunter Nemechek – $4,000; Starting P35
- Justin Haley – $3,500; Starting P33
As you can see, I’ve expanded the value tier this week. We have plenty of interesting names starting deep in the field. Daniel Suarez stands out on both sites because he’s affordable and starts outside the top 30. Additionally, his teammate has won here in the past and Suarez has an average finish of 11.3 in the three previous contests at Nashville, and he’s never finished worse than 15th. The Legacy Motor Club cars are worth mentioning. Both Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek qualified poorly again. JHN did win Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, but both drivers need chaos to move up. I have a little more faith in Jones to potentially score a top-20 finish. An important thing to note for the Ally 400 picks, Justin Haley will have to perform a pass-through penalty in this race.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Martin Truex Jr. – Starting P17
- Ryan Blaney – Starting P18
- Ross Chastain – Starting P20
- Joey Logano – Starting P26
- Kyle Busch – Starting P27 (DraftKings)
This is an interesting group for the Ally 400 picks.. Chastain has won here before and starts P20. Both he, and teammate Daniel Suarez, offer PD and have historically performed well here. After all, Trackhouse Entertainment Group has close ties to the city of Nashville. The natural inclination is to believe all five of these drivers can move up and score a top 10. Ryan Blaney posted ridiculous practice times and should be a popular play. Kyle Busch is interesting though. He once again starts deep in the field. But how confident are we playing him? He’s finished 35th three times this month. And sure, he probably deserved a better result at Sonoma. But still, when things are going bad with Kyle Busch, his attitude tends to make things worse.
Ally 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Denny Hamlin – $10,300; Starting P1
- Chase Elliott – $9,700; Starting P13
- Ross Chastain – $9,000; Starting P20
- Daniel Suarez – $7,500; Starting P31
- Todd Gilliland – $6,700; Starting P32
- Erik Jones – $6,600; Starting P34
After digesting the Ally 400 picks, you have to imagine this is a duplicable tournament build. Ultimately, we do get an early dominator and hopefully he can carry that into (and possibly through) the second stage. Both Chastain and Elliott represent secondary dominator potential. Both have won here in the past three years and offer up some position differential while Elliott could potentially lead laps late. But Chastain could do the same. It hasn’t happened often, but we do get some position differential out of Todd Gilliland and he’s flashed plenty of top 15 upside lately. And it doesn’t hurt we throw in Suarez and Jones who can certainly finish in the top 20 as well.
FanDuel
- Ross Chastain – $12,500; Starting P20
- William Byron – $11,000; Starting P7
- Ryan Blaney – $10,000; Starting P18
- Joey Logano – $9,500; Starting P26
- Daniel Suarez – $7,000; Starting P31
Let’s take a different approach with the FanDuel build. There certainly are 300 laps to lead in this race. But FanDuel doesn’t reward for running up front as much as DraftKings does. Instead, we really need win equity and drivers to move up and score well. We certainly get the win equity with Byron, Blaney, and Chastain. But we also jump on Logano being priced below “average” on FanDuel and Daniel Suarez is an easy fit at just $7,000. He hasn’t finished worse than 15th in three races at Nashville. This may be more of a cash game lineup, but with the Hamlin fade, I’m encouraged to play it in GPP’s.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
The Ally 400 picks are more wide open than ever. Obviously, we think we have a clear idea of who can lead laps. But this is NASCAR. We do need to think unconventionally at times. Friday’s truck race was riddled with cautions early on and then they had a relatively clean stage three. Saturday’s Xfinity Series race was “clean” through two stages, but things unfolded later on. I will likely take different approaches on DraftKings and FanDuel. Go for multi-dominators on DraftKings. But chase win equity and top 10 equity on FanDuel. It’s going to be hot in Nashville on Sunday. Hopefully, you all can start heating up ahead of the break in a few weeks!