After multiple weekends where weather was a concern, it looks like NASCAR may be in the clear this weekend. This week, the NASCAR Cup Series visits the Music City. Nashville Superspeedway, which we’ll discuss shortly, lands on the NASCAR schedule for the fourth straight year. The Chevy’s have won each of the last three races at this track. Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott have all gone to victory lane. Similar to New Hampshire and the legendary lobster, Nashville gives out its own unique trophy to the winner. True to the city’s musical roots, the winner receives a custom Gibson guitar. We’re down to just eight regular-season races remaining on the schedule. The chances to lock in a playoff spot are running thin. Let’s take a look at the top drivers and strategies as part of this week’s NASCAR DFS Ally 400 preview.
Nashville Superspeedway couldn’t be any more misleading. It’s nearly half the size of true superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega. Nashville is a tri-oval measuring in at 1.33 miles in length. But we are breaking away from the flatter tracks we’ve seen of late. Nashville does see 14 degrees of banking in the turns and this is a concrete surface. We don’t have many comparable concrete tracks. Bristol, Dover, and parts of Martinsville do feature concrete. But we’re looking at intermediate tracks for comparison in addition to Bristol, but more so Dover. We have 300 laps on tap for this race so let’s get into the top drivers for the Ally 400 preview.
Ally 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
There is only one concern I have for Larson this week. We’ll touch on that shortly. Above all else, he’s been consistent at Nashville. Sure, it’s a small sample size. However, he’s finished in the top five in all three Nashville races including taking his car to victory lane three year ago with 264 laps led. He was flat out dominant that year and easily went on to win the Cup Series Championship. We’ve seen him perform very well on intermediate tracks this year. He won Vegas and Kansas. He also finished second at Dover two months ago after starting P21. The lone concern I alluded to earlier? He hasn’t led a lap in the last two Nashville races. That carries some soft weight because the last two races have been in the NextGen car. But that doesn’t mean he can’t go out and crush it in this race.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
Things haven’t gone well for Hamlin of late. After a run of six straight top-five finishes (including a win at Dover), he’s finished 24th or worse in three straight races. Granted, last week he had a strong car, but he lost a ton of track position when they re-started the race on rain tires. It’s been a tough stretch, no doubt about it. He still projects well for Sunday’s action. In the two NextGen races at Nashville, he’s led at least 80 laps in each race while finishing third and sixth. I already mentioned Dover, but he also won at Bristol earlier in the year and has performed very well in the intermediate package this year. Could we be looking at the new king of concrete? We’ll find out Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
This will likely be the last time I include MTJ in this section. He really needs to show us something. I’m hoping he isn’t trying to fast-forward to retirement. He’s led a total of just 10 laps in the last seven points-paying races. And he has just two top-10 finishes in that span. The good news is that he has had speed on comparable tracks and he’s run well in the intermediate package. It’s actually bizarre that he’s underwhelmed on road courses and short, flat tracks. But he was the runner-up at Bristol earlier this year where he led 54 laps. He also finished third at Dover after leading 69 laps. Perhaps the concrete surface can play to his strengths a bit for this race. But he could be banned from the top plays section going forward if he can’t get back to leading laps.
Ally 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
This is potentially a make-or-break weekend for the Watermelon Man. He’s been good for a couple of wins each of the last few years. Surprisingly, he only has two top-five finishes this year and seven top 10 finishes in 18 points-paying races. That’s not exactly a banner year. If he’s going to get a win and lock himself into the playoffs, Nashville is one of his best chances. Even three years ago, he managed to finish as the runner-up with Chip Ganassi Racing. In the first year of the NextGen car, he finished fifth. And of course, he won this race last year with 99 laps led. He was regularly running up front all day. The recent form is the reason he’s not a “top play.” But given the track history, he’s definitely worth writing up for this section.
Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)
Similar to his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin, Gibbs has gone a bit cold lately. He doesn’t have a top 10 finish since Charlotte and he’s finished outside the top 15 in each of the last three races. Similar to Hamlin though, he’s run incredibly well on the comparable tracks. He led 137 laps on the concrete of Bristol and grabbed a top-10 finish, and then he grabbed a top-10 at Dover as well. Gibbs was top five at Vegas early in the year and was even the runner-up at Darlington. We’re all just waiting for him to collect his first Cup Series win. I’m not entirely sold it happens at Nashville, but this is a week he should correct his course.
Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)
It feels weird that it’s taken this long into the Ally 400 preview to discuss Chase Elliott. Alas, he cracks this section for the second straight week. Elliott won this race two years ago and finished fourth last year as well. It truly feels like we’re seeing Elliott return to form after a rough 2023 campaign. He does have a win this year but also seven finishes in the top five over the last dozen points-paying races. He was eighth at Bristol and fifth at Dover. On top of that, he’s been solid enough in the intermediate package this year and we saw him run up front for 41 laps at New Hampshire. It doesn’t feel like he’ll be all that expensive either. Even if he doesn’t get many dominator points, it feels like he can pay off the price tag with another top-five finish.
Values and Sleepers
Ryan Preece (#41 Ford)
Preece is in a tough spot. He doesn’t have the luxury of knowing where he’ll be driving next year like teammate, Chase Briscoe. There’s still some upside with Preece from a DFS angle. For starters, he’s awful at qualifying. He’s qualified outside the top 25 in eight straight races. But I also like that he’s won two Truck Series races at Nashville over the last few years. He did start P25 in this race last year and he finished 16th. I’m hoping for a similar run for Sunday’s race. He’s still fighting for a job and has momentum following a top 12 finish last week at New Hampshire.
Justin Haley (#51 Ford)
Haley’s been on a tear and Ryan with iFantasyRace has a little narrative street regarding Haley this week. The result at New Hampshire last week is incredibly misleading. Haley had an average running position of 15th at New Hampshire but finished 29th after losing a ton of track position on the final restart due to some damage he took on prior to the last caution. Haley had that car in the top 10 most of the day. And he’s had very strong runs all year long getting the absolute most out of the Rick Ware Racing equipment. He’s actually a decent qualifier, but even then, he’s still viable because he’s affordable every week and is showing he can finish in the top 15 at low cost.
Corey Heim (#50 Toyota)
Wrapping up the Ally 400 preview, we turn to a talented, young driver. Heim made his Cup Series debut back at Dover but with Legacy Motors Club. He started P32 and finished 25th. Which really isn’t terrible if you think about it. It’s his debut at the Cup level and it’s a whole new car he has to learn. He then finished 22nd at Kansas. We should have some optimism because he’s driving for 23XI Racing this weekend. Heim is one of the best prospects Toyota has under contract and this is a great opportunity for him. He’s easily the favorite to win the Truck Series Championship this year and he grabbed a top five in last year’s Truck Series race at Nashville with 57 laps led.