NASCAR DFS: Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview

We close out the round of 16 with Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have definitely not disappointed so far. Atlanta had its chaos, but even Watkins Glen shook things up a bit last week. Chris Buescher, a non-playoff driver, got the win over Shane Van Gisbergen last week at Watkins Glen. But there was chaos early in the race that saw Ryan Blaney’s day end early. Moreover, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr. did little to put themselves in position to move on to the round of 12. Now we head to a short track where mistakes can be costly. Let’s take a look at the top drivers as part of this week’s early NASCAR DFS Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview!

As a reminder, Bristol is a 0.5-mile short track. Where it differs from Martinsville is that it’s more like a “bowl” than Martinsville, which is a short, flat track. Bristol features a concrete surface with about 24-28 degrees of banking in the corners. So they’ll tick off about three-to-four laps per minute. We will see several drivers finish off the lead lap in this race. You need to be perfect here. Track position matters and a slow pit stop, or a penalty on pit road, can really screw a driver out of track position. And unlike last week, we want to be targeting dominator points because we have 500 laps to work with. It’s a Saturday night race in Bristol, Tennessee during the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. What more could we ask for?

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview: The Top Plays

Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)

Hamlin didn’t do himself many favors at Atlanta or Watkins Glen. Now he goes into Bristol with his back against the wall. I think we can lean into that pressure a little bit. This is historically one of Hamlin’s best tracks. After Bristol experimented with dedicating one of its races to dirt, we finally went back to the concrete for both races this year. Hamlin won here in the spring with 163 laps led (62.8 dominator points on DraftKings) and he also won this race in the playoffs last fall with 142 laps led (69.25 dominator points). This isn’t necessarily a “must win” for him because there’s still the possibility he can move on based on points. But he’s currently on the outside looking in. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he spanked the field in this race Saturday night.

Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)

It’s sure going to be another Hamlin/Larson NASCAR DFS preview article. Similar to this race in the spring, I can’t keep either driver out of the top plays section. Over his last 10 races here, Larson’s worst finish is 19^th. But he finished ninth or better in the other nine races, and in eight of those he was sixth or better. He won this race three years ago (non-NextGen era) and was the runner-up to Hamlin a year ago. Larson currently sits ninth in the playoff standings, so he isn’t as desperate for a win as Hamlin. But we do lead off this Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview with a pair of drivers who can collect a large majority of the dominator points.

Brad Keselowski (#6 Ford)

Keselowski is in a similar spot to Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is six points out of the round of 12, while Keselowski is 12. The good news is that the best equipment tends to prevail here. All three of our top play drivers are in great equipment. If things go according to plan, they shouldn’t lose the lead lap. But Keselowski flies slightly under the radar compared to the other two. He just isn’t as likely to dominate the race as they are. But he did finish third in this race in the spring, and he was eighth a year ago. And while I downgrade him slightly as a dominator, he did lead 109 laps in the fall Bristol race in 2022 but finished 13^th. It’s possible he comes in at half the ownership of Hamlin or Larson, but we shouldn’t sleep on Keselowski one bit in arguably a must-win race.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them

Chris Buescher (#17 Ford)

Why not go with Keselowski’s teammate, Chris Buescher? Buescher is coming off a win at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t do him any good as he’s not in the playoffs, but neither was Shane Van Gisbergen. Both raced hard for the win but Buescher got the best of him. He definitely deserves the win, especially after so many close calls this year. But regarding Bristol, Buescher has done well here. Specifically, in the NextGen era, Buescher won this race two years ago (another race he won as a non-playoff driver). He led 169 laps in that dominating performance. He followed that up by finishing fourth in this race a year ago and he was seventh this past spring. The best part is that he’s qualified P20 or worse in all three races. That gives me confidence in a driver that can qualify poorly but move up and dodge the chaos.

Alex Bowman (#48 Chevrolet)

This is more of a momentum play. For the Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview, we don’t have as much win equity with Bowman as we do with the drivers above. However, he’s currently fourth in the playoff standings. Perhaps those rumors of losing his seat in the 48-car have woke him up? In 14 career races here, he’s led just five laps. But Bowman will also be a mid-range play, bordering value territory. But he’s in great equipment and finished fourth here in the spring. In last fall’s race at Bristol he started and finished 13^th. Even in 2022 he finished 32^nd because he wrecked. However, he did finish sixth in the first two stages. Bristol also carries some comparisons to Dover (mostly the concrete surface), and Bowman has finished eighth or better in six of the last seven races at the Monster Mile.

Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)

Ty Gibbs is the perfect “Wouldn’t Bet Against Him” target for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview. It’s also nice consistency that we started with a JGR driver, a Hendrick driver, and a RFK driver, and here we are in the next section previewing a teammate of theirs. Gibbs is Hamlin’s teammate and he’s currently tied with Chase Briscoe for the last two playoff spots in the round of 12. I’m surprised he doesn’t have a Cup Series win yet as he’s nearing the end of his second full-time Cup Series season. In this race last fall he led 102 laps and grabbed a top 10. Earlier this year, he started P19 and finished ninth but led 137 laps. I do actually think he can win this race. Probably more so than Bowman. But he’ll definitely be contending and fighting for his playoff spot, even against his teammates.

The Values and Sleepers

John Hunter Nemechek (#42 Toyota)

In this tier, we really need to be careful. Sure, this is just a preview article. But the worst equipment almost always fails to maintain the lead lap. I’m not saying JHN can’t, but I’m also saying we shouldn’t expect a sixth-place finish similar to what he did in the spring. But I do think JHN has upside. Even last week at Watkins Glen he started P35 and finished 21^st. Those 14 spots of position differential were great for a value play. In this race in last year’s Xfinity Series race, he grabbed a top-three finish and had some good runs here in the Truck Series. This isn’t a home run by any means, but if he starts outside the top 30 (per usual), then he can still move up and score well while losing the lead lap.

Justin Haley (#51 Ford)

Again, he’s likely a driver that loses the lead lap. However, we’ve already looked at the two RFK drivers. Typically, when Keselowski and Buescher have shown up with speed, so has Haley with his RFK alliance. Haley was surprisingly better when they raced on the dirt at Bristol. But even earlier this year he started P32 and finished 17^th. Two years ago, he started P19 and finished 12^th with Kaulig Racing. His name is floating around the garage for an equipment upgrade at some point. Even when those Alex Bowman rumors were floating around, Haley was a name that was in the mix to take over the 48-car. Haley’s delivered a handful of top-20 performances this season. Nobody expected that when he made the move over to Rick Ware Racing. Let’s see if he can do it again Saturday night.

Ryan Preece (#41 Ford)

I’ll be honest, I was completely ready to mail it in with this article. After finishing up the Justin Haley section I thought “Let’s just throw in Todd Gilliland at the end and call it a day.” But then I quickly looked at some results and may have found a diamond in the rough. So congratulations Ryan Preece, you get to close out the Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview. Preece isn’t in the playoffs. In fact, he probably won’t have a Cup Series ride next year. But he’s been surprisingly decent here in his career. He’s finished top 15 in both NextGen races at Bristol. And even before he drove for Stewart-Haas Racing, he grabbed finishes of 17^th (2021), 9^th (2020 Fall), 12^th (2020 Spring), and 18^th (2019) with JTG Daugherty Racing. He likely won’t carry much exposure. Don’t sleep on Preece as a value play this week.