NASCAR DFS: Brickyard 400 Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series makes a much-needed return to Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It’s not that there was a long separation but this weekend feels special. After three years of racing on Indy’s road course, we go back to the oval. We get to witness the Brickyard 400 in all its glory. There’s some mystery around this race as well. It’s the first time the NextGen cars take to Indy’s oval. Last week the Cup Series ran at Pocono Raceway. And that’s a somewhat comparable track to Indianapolis. Unfortunately, the racing was boring and it was very difficult to pass. But there’s optimism that we could see some great racing on Sunday, especially after the Xfinity Series delivered an outstanding finish on Saturday. Let’s dig into the latest DraftKings and FanDuel strategy article with this week’s Brickyard 400 picks.

Brickyard 400 Picks: The Top 10

1. Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
2. Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
3. Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
4. William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
5. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
6. Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
7. Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
8. Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
9. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 JTG Daugherty Racing)
10. John Hunter Nemechek (#42 Legacy Motor Club)

The top seven are not much of a surprise. Even McDowell starting P8 isn’t too shocking. But Stenhouse and JHN cracking the top 10 is a pleasant sight. Will I play them in DFS? Probably not, but a lot of credit to them and their teams for the qualifying effort. Denny Hamlin might have the most win equity of this group. We hyped him up earlier in the week for the Brickyard 400 preview, and rightfully so. He was awesome last week at Pocono and was sporty in practice on Friday. But Tyler Reddick was the fastest in practice and won the pole. Truthfully, I’m not excited about Hendrick Motorsports. That may surprise you considering three of them start in the top five. But I think there are better dominator plays, and easily better PD options, to consider for the Brickyard 400 picks.

Which Value-Priced Brickyard 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

DraftKings

• Austin Cindric ($7,600; Starting P38)
• Josh Berry ($7,500; Starting P37)
• Erik Jones ($7,300; Starting P29)
• Carson Hocevar ($6,800; Starting P30)
• Todd Gilliland ($6,500; Starting P24)
• Justin Haley ($6,200; Starting P35)

FanDuel

• Kyle Busch ($7,500; Starting P34)
• Josh Berry ($7,200; Starting P37)
• Austin Cindric ($6,800; Starting P38)
• Carson Hocevar ($5,800; Starting P30)
• Erik Jones ($5,500; Starting P29)
• Todd Gilliland ($5,000; Starting P24)

Qualifying certainly gave us some cheap drivers starting deep in the field. Cindric, Berry, and Jones all made the Brickyard 400 preview earlier this week. Cindric is obviously the safest play and arguably a cash-game lock. He starts second-to-last after a qualifying effort where he lightly tapped the wall and he basically took the car off the track. Parker Kligerman hit the wall harder in qualifying for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Kligerman also started outside the top 30 and finished 12^th. Cindric should be fine and is coming off a top 20 at Pocono. I really love the value and upside for Carson Hocevar. He hasn’t started this far back since Talladega in April. And he’s finished 17^th or better in over half the races this year. He flashed top 15 speed in practice and he is one of my top value plays for this race.

Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?

• Christopher Bell – Starting P18
• Brad Keselowski – Starting P26
• Chris Buescher – Starting P23
• Ross Chastain – Starting P28
• Kyle Busch – Starting P34 (DraftKings)

Kyle Busch is probably a fine play on both sites but I won’t write him up in depth for the Brickyard 400 picks. However, he is a better value on FanDuel. Overall, he’s had a frustrating year. And it didn’t help last week after Corey LaJoie wrecked him. Keselowski is a cash game lock. And you can probably say the same about Chris Buescher. Both drivers looked fast last week at Pocono and both collected dominator points. The one guy in this group I’m probably ‘out’ on is Ross Chastain. He didn’t look great in practice as he was rather slow. He wrecked last week at Pocono, but again, he was slow in that race also. But Keselowski and Buescher likely carry heavy ownership and rightfully so. RFK Racing is coming off a great week at Pocono. Hopefully, that translates to another productive day for the organization.

Brickyard 400 Picks

DraftKings

• Denny Hamlin ($10,500; Starting P2)
• Brad Keselowski ($9,300; Starting P26)
• Tyler Reddick ($8,800; Starting P1)
• Austin Cindric ($7,600; Starting P38)
• Carson Hocevar ($6,800; Starting P30)
• Todd Gilliland ($6,500; Starting P24)

This might be a lineup we tinker with. I normally don’t love playing both drivers starting on the front row. I hate it even more when we don’t have 250+ laps in a race. So, I have concerns about this build. However, I do think Hamlin wins. But Reddick is cheap enough at $8,800 where if he grabs a top five and leads early on, he could be optimal. But we also eat chalk elsewhere with Keselowski and Cindric. Hocevar and Gilliland are always good value plays capable of finishing in the top 15. But this lineup does have $500 leftover. That’s helpful in case we want to pivot off the chalk of Keselowski or Cindric. Or maybe we move off Gilliland to use more of the budget. I wouldn’t play it in cash games simply because if Reddick or Hamlin wreck, we’re likely done.

FanDuel

• Denny Hamlin ($14,000; Starting P2)
• Brad Keselowski ($10,500; Starting P26)
• Christopher Bell ($10,000; Starting P18)
• Alex Bowman ($8,000; Starting P13)
• Kyle Busch ($7,500; Starting P34)

For the FanDuel lineup for these Brickyard 400 picks, I take a different approach. I don’t think we need to dip too deep into the value tier pool. With 160 laps there are only 16 “dominator” points on FanDuel and Hamlin could get a lot of those. So, we stick with him and Keselowski for this lineup. From there, I just want drivers who can move up and finish well. Bell is an easy option and he’s affordable. He should be optimal with a top-five finish. Bowman is maybe the only Hendrick driver I’m intrigued by. He’s coming off a great week at Pocono and I still don’t think he’ll garner much attention. I’m fine playing Busch at this price because he starts deep in the field. He wasn’t elite in practice but he should score well if he can navigate his way to a top-15 finish.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

It’s the final race before the 2024 Paris Olympics break. NASCAR doesn’t want to bother competing for TV coverage on NBC so they’re taking a few weeks off. So be mindful of your bankroll. It’s great to be back for the Brickyard 400. However, it could be incredibly difficult to pass, like it was last week. Moreover, it’s the first time the NextGen car has raced here. I’m only playing five lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As much as we can break down the practice speed, and examine how last week’s race unfolded, we still have a lot of unknown factors with this edition of the Brickyard 400 picks. So best of luck, and we’ll be back in three weeks to tackle the playoff stretch!