The NASCAR Cup Series heads home for the Coca-Cola 600! Charlotte Motor Speedway plays host to all three series this weekend. Memorial Day Weekend is always a great weekend for motorsports. F1 runs the Monaco Grand Prix in the morning. IndyCar will run the historic Indianapolis 500 in the afternoon. And Sunday night we’ll have the NASCAR Cup Series racing the longest race of the year under the lights. The All-Star race is a thing of the past and the biggest storyline to come out of that race was the fight between Kyle Busch and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. You have to imagine those fireworks carry over to this week, but another big storyline this weekend will be Kyle Larson running both the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. It’s going to be an outstanding weekend for motorsports, so here’s this week’s Coca-Cola 600 preview!
Charlotte Motor Speedway is your prototypical “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile intermediate. The surface isn’t terribly old and, in general, the racing has been solid in this package. What makes it unique is the length. The Daytona 500 is the Super Bowl for NASCAR. But the Coca-Cola 600 is the longest race every year. We get 400 laps for 600 miles and this is the only race broken into four stages. This is a brutal race for newcomers given the length. It requires a lot of endurance and stamina. Can Kyle Larson be competitive across 1,100 miles between both races? Well, there’s a reason we’re leading off with one of the most talented drivers in racing…
Coca-Cola 600 Preview: The Top Plays
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
We loved him for Darlington and we loved him for Vegas. Sure enough, we’re going right back to the well with Larson on a high-speed intermediate. He has two wins already this year on comparable tracks and he won this race in 2021 in dominating fashion leading 327 laps. Sure, it’ll be a long weekend for him. He really impressed with his pure speed in practice and qualifying for the Indy 500. And pulling double-duty could be a tall order. But if there’s one driver who can handle the pressure and physical demand of two massive races, it’s Larson. There will be plenty of bettors laying down the parlay for him to win both races. That’s a very tall order. But I’m only here to preview Charlotte and he’s a big favorite to win.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
The storylines will be built around Kyle Larson this week. But that’s great for Hamlin. Denny is having a career year. This is easily his best shot to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. He won this race in the NextGen car two years ago, but he only led 15 laps. But at least, even when he doesn’t have the best car, he isn’t short on win equity. Sure, his wins this year have come on the “short” tracks. However, at Bristol and Dover, they ran the intermediate package. He was also top-five at both Kansas and Darlington more recently. He doesn’t have to focus on two different races this weekend. His sole focus is on Charlotte and if the media wants to focus on Larson, so be it. Hamlin’s almost as likely to win this race.
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
He’s been fantastic in the intermediate package this year and he led 28 laps in this race last year while grabbing a top-five. He finished second at Vegas, finished fourth at Texas, and even though he finished 32nd at Darlington, he still led 174 laps. He’s almost a carbon copy of Kyle Larson. They share many similarities when you look at their driving style. There are too many reasons to buy into the car nailing the setup and the driver being a live dominator for this race.
Coca-Cola 600 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
The only knock on MTJ is that he doesn’t have a win this year. His last win was last July at New Hampshire. His last win on a comparable track was nearly three years ago at Darlington. So it could be that he’s past his prime. However, the pure speed and performance data indicate that the team is nailing the setup. And perhaps he doesn’t have the pit crew that can help him gain track position. His best performances this year have come on the shorter, flat tracks. He does have three career wins running the oval at Charlotte. And not just that, but he’s been outstanding when he has gotten out front. He may fly under the radar and be a leverage play, but he’s still in a Toyota and drives for JGR. Truex could shape up to be a solid tournament option emerging from this Coca-Cola 600 preview.
Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)
The price tag on Gibbs this week is absolutely outstanding. We’re just a few weeks removed from Gibbs finishing second at Darlington after leading 34 laps. And even last weekend he did go wire-to-wire in the All-Star Open leading 100 laps and winning his way into the All-Star race. But Gibbs was also top five at Vegas and then in the intermediate package at Bristol, he led over 100 laps. He didn’t have a great showing last year in this race. Nevertheless, he’s shown a lot of growth and maturity this year. He’s knocking on the door as we’ve said all year long. We said the same thing about Brad Keselowski and he eventually got his win two weeks ago at Darlington. I’ll be loading up on a lot of Gibbs this week. The price tag on DraftKings is outstanding.
Kyle Busch (#8 Chevrolet)
I really didn’t want to plug him into this article. But I’m going to acknowledge the track history at least. He’s won this race before, but most of his success at Charlotte came with Joe Gibbs Racing. In his first season with Richard Childress Racing, Busch started P5 and finished sixth last year. He even grabbed three wins last year with RCR. But this year has been different. Even during the scuffle with Stenhouse on Sunday, he made a comment about how he’s been as bad as him this year. That’s not quite a ringing endorsement for the effort and equipment at RCR. He did manage top 10 finishes at Dover, Texas, and Kansas. Overall, he needs to show us something in practice and qualifying this weekend.
The Sleepers and Values
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
As part of the Coca-Cola 600 preview, the Watermelon Man is more of a sleeper than he is a value play. But even at $8,200 on DraftKings, it does feel like a bit of a discount. Chastain seems good for about two surprise wins every year. He won two races in 2022 and two races last year so he’s finding success in the NextGen era. The track history is definitely shaky at Charlotte. But he did lead over 150 laps in this race two years ago. He finished top-five at Vegas earlier in the year. And yet, while the results at Texas and Kansas weren’t as fruitful, he led 33 laps at Texas and 43 laps at Kansas. The finishes weren’t there, but there has been speed in for Chastain in the intermediate package.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 Chevrolet)
Continuing with the value portion of the Coca-Cola 600 preview we have the guy that punched Kyle Busch in the face last weekend. Stenhouse was levied with a $75,000 fine for that throw. And he’ll need a big payday on Sunday to replenish his wallet. Similar to Busch, Stenhouse is mostly making the article because of track history. In five of his last six races at Charlotte, he’s finished 12th or better. In four of those performances, he was seventh or better. Truthfully, it does feel like he has a top 15 floor but let’s judge him based on where he qualifies. The form this year has been bad. However, he was 16th at Kansas and 17th at Vegas. There’s some intrigue here from a salary-saving perspective at least.
Michael McDowell (#34 Ford)
There isn’t a ton of to go off of with McDowell. However, we know he has it in him to finish in the top 10. Last week in the All-Star race? He finished ninth. What did he do at Darlington? Grabbed a top 10. What did he do at Kansas? Grabbed another top 10. Sure, it’s his final year at Front Row Motorsports before he joins Spire next year. But he does have two career wins with this team despite being a value play. He has plenty of experience and finished eighth in this race two years ago. I love the momentum that he has and will keep an eye on him for another great finish on an intermediate.