We have just five races left in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. Time is running out for drivers to win or “point” their way into the playoffs. This weekend NASCAR heads to Richmond Raceway for some short-track racing. Historically, this is a track that Joe Gibbs Racing and the Toyotas dominate. Based on how practice and qualifying played out that could be the case again on Sunday. If you missed this week’s NASCAR DFS: Cook Out 400 Preview, I highly suggest giving it a read because there are drivers still live for our NASCAR DFS lineups. Let’s dig into the Cook Out 400 picks for Sunday’s race as we start constructing our winning NASCAR DFS lineups.
Sunday’s race gives us 400 laps around the 0.75-mile D-shaped track of Richmond Raceway. We have a lot to keep in mind when putting lineups together. 400 laps give us about 260-270 dominator points on DraftKings when you account for caution laps. This is also a high tire wear track so that’s a piece of strategy that will come into play for drivers. Also, short-track racing means we’ll have several drivers that lose the lead lap. That could prove to be problematic for drivers starting deeper in the field looking to move up. This is a very difficult track to read for DFS because it can be difficult to pass as well. Let’s take a look at how practice and qualifying played out Saturday afternoon.
Cook Out 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Kevin Harvick (#4 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 JTG Daugherty Racing)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
Five Toyotas are starting in the top 10. They continue to be the class of the field in the dog days of summer. A lot of the lap leaders will come from this group. Guys like Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Martin Truex Jr. really stand out. And we can’t completely sleep on Chase Elliott or Kevin Harvick. The big mystery will be Tyler Reddick. Historically, Reddick and short tracks aren’t a recipe for success. Even on his qualifying lap to win the pole he slapped the wall. The team doesn’t believe they’ll go to the rear for making repairs so for now, he starts first. But with 400 laps on the docket, we’ll need to nail the two or three drivers that lead those precious laps at Richmond.
Which Value Priced Cook Out 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings:
- Daniel Suarez – P33, $7,800
- Chris Buescher – P26, $7,700
- Erik Jones – P27, $6,300
- J. Allmendinger – P36, $6,200
- Corey LaJoie – P31, $5,400
FanDuel:
- Chris Buescher – P26, $7,500
- Daniel Suarez – P33, $6,800
- J. Allmendinger – P36, $5,200
- Erik Jones – P27, $5,000
- Corey LaJoie – P31, $3,500
Truthfully, these five drivers are just my preferred value plays as of Saturday afternoon/evening. There are a handful of value-priced drivers I could have listed in the Cook Out 400 picks. But based on recent trends and quality of equipment these are the five drivers I feel confident can move up and score position movement points. A note on A.J. Allmendinger: he’s pretty much a lock-in Cash games. He was in Wisconsin for the Xfinity Series race on Saturday so he didn’t even get to practice and qualify his car for Sunday’s race in Richmond. When was the last time he ran two races in different states on the same weekend? Last year actually. He won the 2022 Xfinity Series race in Portland on a Saturday without practice and qualifying for the Cup Series race at Gateway. The next day he started P35 at Gateway and finished top ten.
Which Higher-Priced Picks Got A Similar Bump?
- Kyle Larson – P14
- Christopher Bell – P29
- Joey Logano – P23
- Ryan Blaney – P25
Christopher Bell is really the only Toyota that seemingly showed up with the wrong setup. It looks like it was just off on Sunday. He’ll be popular for the position differential he offers. He needs a top ten to pay off his price tag on DraftKings. However, do you want to pay that price tag for position points or do you want to pay that price tag for potential dominator points? I prefer the latter. All of Team Penske and several other Fords start outside the top 20. This is historically an awful track for Ryan Blaney so if I’m picking between the two, I’m leaning Logano. But I won’t sleep on Blaney because he could surprise us.
Cook Out 400 DFS Picks
DraftKings:
- Denny Hamlin – $10,500
- William Byron – $9,900
- Joey Logano – $9,700
- Chris Buescher – $7,700
- J. Allmendinger – $6,200
- Michael McDowell – $5,900
I never feel good when building NASCAR DFS lineups for Richmond races. Between the difficulty passing, the tire wear, nailing the right lap leaders, hoping your drivers stay on the lead lap, etc. It’s all a lot to account for when building lineups. But this is a good mix of two dominators, some position differential outside the top 20, and overall drivers that can finish well. There’s flexibility here. You can move off Logano and Buescher for MTJ and Jones. That does sacrifice some PD, but it gives you exposure to potentially a third dominator. MTJ offers some position differential so it’s just a matter of preference.
FanDuel:
- Denny Hamlin – $13,000
- Christopher Bell – $12,000
- Joey Logano – $10,500
- Ryan Blaney – $9,000
- J. Allmendinger – $5,200
This lineup almost feels like the antithesis of what I’ve preached this entire article. There’s only one dominator baked in. It features two Fords that I don’t “love” but I do feel like they should move up and finish on the lead lap. Where they finish on the lead lap is difficult to gauge. And I already noted Bell’s slow speeds in practice. But if I’m targeting drivers offering position differential, these are the ones I feel most confident in without having to dip into the value tier.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
While constructing your NASCAR DFS lineups, it might benefit you to consider the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings. We may be able to gain clarity on who will strategize to race for points each stage. And in doing so, we can probably figure out who races for the win. This is a low-variance track. A long shot won’t win it. There are seven drivers within 62 points of the final playoff spot. They might strategize for stage points in this race, but in doing so they should be on the lead lap. And by race’s end, they should be in position for a good finish.
Two dominator builds are the way to go, but with 400 laps don’t hesitate to consider builds with three. I don’t think we see another solo dominator performance from a Toyota. Don’t try and force too many of the place differential drivers into your builds because of the difficulty to pass and the general nature of Richmond. It’s likely that half the field finishes off the lead lap. Enjoy Sunday’s race as we will likely start to see the NASCAR DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel diminish in the coming weeks. The contest sizes and prize pools get smaller once we get to football season and it’s difficult to contend with the National Football League.