The NASCAR Cup Series is back after a couple weeks off! We dive right back into the action with some short track racing from Richmond Raceway. There are just four races left in the Cup Series regular season. The chances for these drivers to lock themselves into the playoffs are running thin. A couple weeks ago at Indianapolis, we had a bit of a controversial win with Kyle Larson winning the Brickyard 400. I normally give NASCAR the benefit of the doubt. But in this case, they seemed to be very lenient with waiting to throw the caution in overtime. Alas, it’s in the past and we’re looking ahead. Here is the latest Cook Out 400 preview for this weekend’s race from Richmond!
As a bit of a reminder, Richmond Raceway is a 0.75-mile short, flat track. If you’d like a little extra reading material, I highly suggest the first Richmond preview from back in March. Now NASCAR will likely eat some crow if we find ourselves with another short track that produces poor racing. Richmond can be tough to pass and that’s a bit problematic if you start deep in the field and can’t maintain the lead lap. But we also get 280 dominator points to consider on DraftKings with 400 total laps. So we’ll be taking some multi-dominator approaches this weekend with our builds, and we’ll need to identify the best plays after practice and qualifying to differentiate our lineups.
Cook Out 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
Truex finished fourth at Richmond earlier this year while grabbing 76.35 dominator points on DraftKings. He finished with a 136.9 driver rating and arguably had the best car. However, track position matters here. We’ve seen plenty of times that the short-track aero package in the NextGen car doesn’t produce the best racing. Moreover, this is already a track where it’s difficult to pass at. I have no problem leaning heavily into Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend. This organization thrives on this type of track. MTJ himself has won here three times in 10 races with JGR. He’s still seeking that first win of the season and the number of races left in his career is dwindling. If they don’t overcomplicate things and bring a similar setup to what they had in the spring, this will be a huge weekend for Truex.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
Hamlin won this race in the spring and didn’t even need the best car. He was the beneficiary of a late caution, and then he had a great pit to put himself in the lead for overtime. That’s not to say it was a fluke by any means. The crowd may ultimately boo him come Sunday, but this is considered a home track for Hamlin. He’s raced here 35 times in his Cup Series career and he’s won five times with 19 total top-five finishes. That’s right. He’s finished top five in over half his races here. The weird thing is that, while the win equity is certainly there, we haven’t seen him dominate this race in the NextGen car. In the five NextGen races at Richmond, he’s led a total of just 135 laps.
Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)
Elliott may not move the needle very much in terms of track history. Sure, he has a few top fives on his resume at Richmond, but no wins. But he’s been one of the better performers on the short tracks this year. He finished 19th at Phoenix but was regularly running in the top 10. Then he was top five at Richmond-1, finished third at Martinsville with 64 laps led and a 126.7 driver rating, finished third at Iowa, and led 41 laps at New Hampshire but ultimately finished 18th. It seems like ownership is consistently below expectations, especially if he qualifies well. For that reason, he’s a strong tournament play to round out the top drivers for this Cook Out 400 preview.
Cook Out 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Joey Logano (#22 Ford)
Logano is actually a pretty underrated short-track driver. And Penske as a team has really come on strong since the beginning of June. He finished second here in the spring with a 117.9 driver rating, but what I find impressive is that he registered 25 fastest laps without leading at any point in the race. He managed to lead 84 laps at Martinsville while finishing sixth and he flat out dominated the All-Star race at North Wilkesboro after winning the pole. I don’t know how likely it is he crushes it in this race. He’s led zero laps in the last three Richmond races combined. But he likely will be an affordable piece to plug into tournament lineups and he’s run very well on comparable tracks this year.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
It’s a little bit odd, but William Byron had been rather pedestrian heading into the break. But truly, he is a driver I wouldn’t bet against, so he fits this section for the Cook Out 400 preview. He started P13 and finished seventh in the first Richmond race. He also won Martinsville with 88 laps led and he later finished second at Iowa not too long ago. Overall, it is somewhat concerning he hasn’t led a lap since Memorial Day Weekend. Perhaps Hendrick Motorsports is “experimenting” with setups again ahead of the playoffs. They did something similar last year. Yet he still has three wins on the year. Richmond is a challenge, but he’s led 100+ laps on two occasions at this track in the NextGen era.
Brad Keselowski (#6 Ford)
I’m about to write up Keselowski for the dumbest reason so stay with me. He’s actually been solid here, I can’t take that away from him. He previously won here on two occasions with Penske. But we all know of the struggles RFK had their first couple of years when Keselowski became a part-owner. Anyway, he finished sixth in this race a year ago with a 115.1 driver rating, and then he was eighth this past spring. But mind you, NASCAR heads to Michigan next weekend. That’s Keselowski’s home track, and he’s never won there. But in the NextGen era, the driver that won the Richmond race in the summer also went on to win Michigan the next week. Kevin Harvick did it in 2022. And Keselowski’s teammate, Chris Buescher, pulled off the same feat last year.
The Sleepers and Values
Josh Berry (#4 Ford)
We kick off the value portion of the Cook Out 400 preview with Berry. He can probably relax and finish the year with less stress knowing he has a job in 2025 as he’ll take over the 21-car. But Berry has been sneaky good at short, flat tracks this year. It’s a small sample size, but Berry has raced here twice in the Cup Series. He started P30 both times and finished second and 11th. Granted, he got very lucky with the timing of a caution when he finished second and earned a lot of track position. Berry also went on to finish seventh at Iowa with 32 laps led and he was third at New Hampshire. We can’t forget that this is a variance play. He’s very boom-or-bust. So don’t go overboard locking him into every lineup of yours because of the ceiling.
Chase Briscoe (#14 Ford)
Briscoe is a fine option ahead of this weekend’s action. He does tend to thrive on short, flat tracks. His lone career Cup Series win came at Phoenix back in 2022. He’s certainly more likely to collect more wins in the coming years as he moves over to Joe Gibbs Racing. In this race last year, he started P20 and finished 11th. Then earlier this year he started P32 and finished 18th. And it’s also worth mentioning he finished top 10 this year at short, flat tracks such as Phoenix and Martinsville, while he also finished runner-up at New Hampshire.
Todd Gilliland (#38 Ford)
Might as well lean into old reliable to close out the Cook Out 400 preview. In the last 11 points-paying races leading up to the break, Gilliland finished 17th or better in 10 of them. Additionally, he finished seventh at Chicago and sixth at Indianapolis. But it’s the consistency in terms of floor and ceiling out of this value play that really stand out. Gilliland certainly overqualified the car with a P6 starting effort in the first Richmond race this year. It’s easy to see why he was a fade on race day. But he bounced back and finished 12th at New Hampshire and Iowa earlier in the summer. The secret’s out with Gilliland as well. He’s hardly a sneaky play and one everyone will have eyes on as a paydown option. But obviously without a ton of reliable options in this range, it’s nice to see consistency.