We have made it to the final regular season race of the 2024 NASCAR season. And we’re coming off a stellar ending to last weekend’s race at Daytona. Harrison Burton scored his first career Cup Series win and the 100th for Wood Brothers Racing. It was all the more special with Leigh Diffey on the call next to Harrison Burton’s dad, Jeff Burton. It was an electric race and it locks Harrison Burton into the playoffs. Burton is still looking for a ride in 2025, but that win has to feel amazing. But this week we’re at Darlington Raceway. And with Burton scoring the win last week, that’s one less playoff spot available for drivers looking to “point” their way in. Let’s take a look at the top plays for this week’s Cook Out Southern 500 preview!
For those who need a refresher, this track never disappoints. Sure, it’s a big weekend for college football and fantasy football drafts. But put this race on in the background, will ya? Darlington Raceway is a true “strategy” race. You have to manage your tires well. This surface is old and chews up rubber at an incredibly fast rate. Moreover, this track is shaped like an egg as the turn radii differ from both ends of the track. Those that test the lady in black will be tempted to run the high line along the wall. It’s definitely the preferred line but getting to close could result in a Darlington stripe. For the Cook Out Southern 500 preview we want to consider track history, but we can’t sleep on those last few drivers fighting for a playoff spot.
Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: The Top Plays
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
We’re kicking off the Cook Out Southern 500 preview with the same two drivers as the spring preview for Darlington. This track is tailor-made for Kyle Larson. He loves running the higher line along the wall similar to Homestead, another track he’s had success at. He won this race a year ago with 55 laps led. But in a five-race span from 2017 through 2021, he finished in the top three on four occasions and led 120+ laps three times. He’s looked great on the intermediates this year and wants to redeem himself for the wreck he got caught up in during the first Darlington race in the spring. There’s plenty of win equity and dominator potential with this play so he should be popular this weekend.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
Yes, it’s another boring preview leading off with Larson and Hamlin. But it’s a high tire wear intermediate track and these two are arguably the class of the field for this race. Denny Hamlin has won here four times in his Cup Series career. Even a year ago when Larson won this race, Hamlin led 177 laps, but lost track position over a loose wheel and ultimately finished 25th. It has surprisingly been four months since Hamlin’s last win. However, I’m not too worried about that. Richmond doesn’t draw many comparisons to Darlington. In terms of size and shape, they’re very far off. But Richmond is a higher tire wear short track and Hamlin is always in play at that track, similar to Darlington. There’s plenty of experience with this play and he obviously has a good chance to win.
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
Chris Buescher might not like this play, but I would be a fool to leave Reddick out of this section. For those wondering, Buescher was on his way to potentially winning this race in the spring, but Reddick made a moronic move to try and get by him but ultimately wrecked them both. Regardless of the result, Reddick was stellar in the spring race here. He led 174 laps before the wreck and he even led 90 in this race a year ago but finished second. Similar to Larson, he loves running the higher line against the wall at tracks like Darlington and Homestead. He likely comes with less win equity than Larson and Hamlin, but he still has a very good chance of collecting dominator points for Sunday’s race.
Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Chris Buescher (#17 Ford)
Let’s transition to the driver who was screwed by Reddick’s untimely move this past spring! After winning three races in 2023, Buescher is winless this year. With Harrison Burton getting the win last week, there are only three spots available for drivers to make the playoffs on points. Martin Truex Jr. seems safe to make the playoffs as he’s 58 points to the good. Ty Gibbs is in good shape 39 points to the good. Buescher holds the last spot currently. He has a 21-point cushion over Bubba Wallace and a 27-point lead over Ross Chastain. Buescher finished third in this race last year and led 21 laps in the spring before Reddick screwed him over. He doesn’t need the win as much as others do, but he also doesn’t want to miss out on the playoffs after the great year he had in 2023.
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
I went back and forth between Chastain and Bubba Wallace. I’m going to lean Chastain, but I have to acknowledge Bubba has four straight top-10 finishes at Darlington. But Chastain did finish fifth in this race last year and was 11th in the spring. Overall, it’s been an underwhelming year for the watermelon man. Chastain’s won at least two races each of the last two years, but that hasn’t been the case this year. He has just three top-five finishes and he really needs a strong performance to make the playoffs. I anticipate Trackhouse Racing will put all their focus into Chastain’s car this weekend. Daniel Suarez is already in the playoffs. He knows the organization wants to get both drivers in this year. There’s upside here and the team will take risks to get a win.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
It feels a little odd putting Byron this low in the Cook Out Southern 500 preview. And he’s been really good at Darlington. In the NextGen era, he has a driver rating over 100 in all five Darlington races and he has a win here while finishing top eight in four straight races at the egg. So why so low? While he’s having a great year with three wins, his last came at Martinsville at the beginning of April. So you have to wonder, is the team just experimenting with setups ahead of the playoffs? Maybe, but he did finish second at Michigan two weeks ago. But overall, the dominator upside seems minimal despite collecting three early wins in the spring.
The Values and Sleepers
Erik Jones (#43 Toyota)
Let’s dig into the values of the Cook Out Southern 500 preview with a two-time winner at Darlington. But believe it or not, this isn’t a slam-dunk recommendation. This is more of a track history play. Jones did win this race two years ago in a NextGen car. But that was also the first year of the Gen7 offering and there was a ton of variance that year. But Jones won here back in 2019 with Joe Gibbs Racing. He did grab a top 10 here a year ago and started P30 in the spring and finished 19th. That’s not awful for DFS. But as Nick Giffen pointed out on Monday, Jones was only in the top 15 for 1.7% of the laps in the spring race. Legacy Motor Club has struggled with qualifying and this is still a top 20 car with top-10 upside.
Kyle Busch (#8 Chevrolet)
Kyle Busch in the value and sleeper section of this article? What has the world come to? This article was written well before DraftKings and FanDuel dropped their pricing for this race. With that said, his price tag has been lower than normal most weeks. Busch has actually been running pretty well since NASCAR returned from the Olympic break. He was 12th at Richmond, fourth at Michigan, and the runner-up last week at Daytona. Darlington isn’t really his best track. He has one win here from back in 2008. Since Andy Petree retired and Keith Rodden took over as competition director at RCR, things have clicked and Busch has been trending up. He is over 100 points behind Buescher in the playoff standings, so he absolutely needs a win. Consider this a high-ceiling play because this team will strategize accordingly.
Justin Haley (#51 Ford)
We’ll love this play even more if the RFK drivers show up with speed. Haley’s 51-car has a partnership with Keselowski and Buescher. He actually has top-10 finishes in the last three spring races at Darlington, which is stellar and speaks to his upside. The summer races haven’t gone as well but I’m not going to avoid him simply because of the time of year. But typically, Haley’s car tends to show up with speed the same weeks that RFK does. Keselowski won this race in the spring, but it was Buescher who was leading late before being wrecked. And we already touched on the fact Haley grabbed another top 10 finish in that spring race. I’m always surprised he isn’t more popular by the time the slate locks. But he’s one of my favorite early value plays for this race.