The NASCAR Cup Series runs through Brooklyn, Michigan this weekend. The FireKeepers Casino 400 picks are here and we’re due for an interesting race Sunday afternoon. We’re fresh off the news of Austin Dillon retaining his victory at Richmond last week, but he loses the benefits of said win. That means he’s not eligible for the playoffs and he was dealt a hefty point penalty. On Saturday, he indicated that he felt pretty confident his appeal would overturn NASCAR’s ruling. Good luck with that, because I doubt it. But we ditch the short-track package this week. We’re back on a larger track and one with multiple grooves. We’re cautiously optimistic that passing could be possible and abundant. Let’s dig into this week’s FireKeepers Casino 400 picks for our DraftKings and FanDuel lineups!
The bad news is that, per usual, we had weather issues on Saturday. Saturday’s practice session was cut severely short. We saw most drivers only log about 10 laps, and they weren’t consecutive. The session started and everyone went out briefly. Then they red-flagged everyone and had them come back down pit road. A few moments later, the drivers went back out for a handful of laps, and then another red flag. With thunderstorms on the radar for most of the afternoon, and the Xfinity Series race a few hours later, NASCAR made the call to cancel practice and qualifying, so the starting order is determined by the metric. It’s anyone’s guess as to who is fast, but we’ll make do with this week’s FireKeepers Casino 400 picks.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
- Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
- Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing)
This is the lineup based on the metric with qualifying being washed out. But we have to imagine a lot of win equity comes from this group. The three “top play” drivers from the FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview start in the top eight, including Denny Hamlin who is on the pole. From there, we have a few other Toyotas like Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Bubba Wallace starting in the top five. Wallace was another driver that appeared in this week’s preview. The multiple grooves and high-speed nature of this track play to his strengths. We saw these drivers reaching nearly 200mph entering turn one during the few practice laps they ran. It does feel like having at least two of these drivers in your lineup(s) is a good way to start construction. There’s plenty of dominator potential in the top eight.
Which Value-Priced FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks Received A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Alex Bowman – $7,800; Starting P22
- Noah Gragson – $6,800; Starting P25
- Erik Jones – $6,700; Starting P28
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,200; Starting P30
- Justin Haley – $5,800; Starting P29
- A.J. Allmendinger – $5,600; Starting P35
FanDuel
- Alex Bowman – $8,000; Starting P22
- Noah Gragson – $6,200; Starting P25
- Erik Jones – $5,200; Starting P28
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $4,500; Starting P30
- A.J. Allmendinger – $4,200; Starting P35
- Justin Haley – $4,000; Starting P29
In previous weeks, I’ve offered up more names. I don’t want to take that approach this week. At the bottom of the article, I’ll explain why I’m scaling back how much I’m playing. I’m going into this race with a smaller driver pool than normal. Alex Bowman is likely the most popular option in this range. His teammates start in the top 10 and he had a great run at Pocono last month. I detailed in this week’s preview the potential for Gragson and Jones as well. Stenhouse should do well on a larger track with more speed and he offers PD for a potential top 15 finish. Allmendinger has historically been great in the Xfinity Series at Michigan and he starts deep enough in the field. He’s basically returning 5X value on DraftKings with a top 25 finish this weekend. And Haley offers PD with the notable RFK alliance.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Martin Truex Jr. – Starting P24
- Brad Keselowski – Starting P15
- Joey Logano – Starting 14
- Chris Buescher – Starting P18
- Ty Gibbs – Starting P19
Because the lineup is set by the metric, the only expensive option offering great position differential is Martin Truex Jr. I still do like playing Keselowski, Logano, Buescher, and Gibbs. But there’s a lot of negative correlation among those plays. Of those four drivers, I wouldn’t play more than two of them together in a lineup. And they don’t necessarily offer us a ton of PD. However, Gibbs does provide value with a top 10 finish. The others have more win equity, and Gibbs is far from “safe” as he has just one top 15 finish in his last eight races. Similar to the value plays, mix and match these drivers into your builds. Truex may be an easy option to play in cash games because we only have 140 dominator points at the most for this race. PD becomes more viable in this instance.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Kyle Larson – $10,700; Starting P4
- Denny Hamlin – $10,500; Starting P1
- Ty Gibbs – $8,400; Starting P19
- Alex Bowman – $7,800; Starting P22
- Erik Jones – $6,700; Starting P28
- Justin Haley – $5,800; Starting P29
For the FireKeepers Casino 400 picks, I’m looking for two dominators on DraftKings, while leaving the door open for a third potential dominator. Larson and Hamlin are the top two targets and I imagine they’ll be very popular. That being said, Gibbs and Bowman offer good equipment and position differential. Sure, both can certainly disappoint and fail to meet expectations. But the equipment is still good enough to run top 10 and possibly get some fastest laps. Jones will be popular because it’s his home track and he starts deep in the field. He’s finished top 10 here each of the last two years. And we round it out with Justin Haley. I would’ve liked to have seen practice to see how RFK and Haley’s car looked. But we’ll call it blind faith and hope he can get a top 20 finish on Sunday.
FanDuel
- Kyle Larson – $14,000; Starting P4
- Martin Truex Jr. – $11,000; Starting P24
- Chris Buescher – $10,000; Starting P18
- Chase Elliott – $9,500; Starting P6
- Erik Jones – $5,200; Starting P28
Larson and Jones transfer over to this build from the DraftKings lineup. Larson carries win equity and plenty of upside. There are only 20 laps led points available on FanDuel, but Larson has the ability to collect plenty of those. MTJ isn’t terribly priced on FanDuel. $11K is manageable and he’s likely optimal with a top five finish as a chalky play. Buescher won this race a year ago and has top 10 potential, but Elliott is where I tried to get a little different with this build. He can certainly finish top five. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he won the race. But we do get five drivers that can finish in the top 10 with a shot to lead laps and win. I’d say this is a lineup you can play in cash games and tournaments.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
As I mentioned earlier, I’m scaling back my play this week. I don’t love investing a lot and playing my normal volume without practice and qualifying. We know who should be good here. But we didn’t really get a good look at this field, especially in the long run. Pair this reasoning with the fact the NASCAR contests are slowly dwindling and being sacrificed with NFL season approaching, it might just be a good week to go light. But if you don’t want to because Daytona looms next week, then I won’t fault you for that choice. Superspeedways and “drafting” races tend to be good weeks to play light as well. Best of luck with this week’s FireKeepers Casino 400 picks!