Last week was one of the rare weeks where a sleeper pulled out a win. Michael McDowell scored his second career win and locked himself into the playoffs. He even managed to prove Denny Hamlin wrong by beating out Chase Elliott on Sunday. There are three playoff spots remaining with just two races left in the regular season. You’ll see some familiar names in this article from the one published a week ago. We go from the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway to the road course at Watkins Glen International so we don’t need to overcomplicate this for ourselves. Let’s take a look at the drivers and strategies as part of this week’s Go Bowling at The Glen preview.
There are a couple of different layouts for Watkins Glen, but NASCAR uses the short course with the inner loop. It features 11 turns although some may argue it’s more like eight. This course measures 2.45 miles in length and we’ll see 90 laps in this race. Similar to last week, those dominator points play less of a role unless a driver can collect a majority of them and win. Last week Michael McDowell led 54 of the 82 laps. But he only had two of the fastest laps all race. But those did add 14.4 fantasy points to his score and he was optimal as the race winner. We should take a similar approach to lineup construction this week. And hopefully, see fewer “chalky” position differential plays starting at the rear.
Go Bowling at The Glen Preview: The Top Picks
Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)
I wasn’t incredibly high on Elliott last week, but he did what he does best on road courses. He may have finished second to Michael McDowell, but he did have eight fastest laps and was closing the gap in the final laps. Elliott won Watkins Glen in dominating fashion in 2018 and 2019. He also led 29 laps in this race last year with a 124.8 driver rating. He fell short of the win but finished fourth. This is Elliott’s best chance to qualify for the playoffs. He hasn’t finished worse than fourth at WGI in his last four races. And Hendrick Motorsports will put a ton of research and resources into his car to help him get the win. In general, it just feels like a week where NASCAR will do what they can to get the golden boy into the playoffs.
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
MTJ was rather forgetful on road courses last year as Toyota struggled with setups but they came on strong late in the year. He finished 23rd in 2022 but in the five races at Watkins Glen prior to last year he had four straight finishes in the top three and he posted a driver rating of 120+ in each race. He dominated Sonoma earlier in the year and has what it takes to win here. If there’s a driver that can play spoiler this weekend it would be him. For similar reasons, we should keep Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet) in mind. He’s won the last two races here. However, I just think there’s a collective effort by Hendrick Motorsports to get Elliott the win.
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
He wasn’t bad last week, but he also wasn’t overly impressive. He started second and finished fourth with five fastest laps. Without many cautions there just wasn’t much for him to do with McDowell and Elliott leading the field. But he’s a great road course racer. He has three wins on road courses in the NextGen car and still had a 112.4 driver rating last week despite the quiet day. In two races at WGI, he’s finished in the top ten both times. The Toyotas have nailed the setup this year on road layouts. It helps his win equity that he qualifies very well on road courses.
Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Michael McDowell (#34 Ford)
It’ll be a tall task for McDowell to repeat and win again this weekend. We haven’t seen too many drivers go back-to-back this year except for William Byron and Chris Buescher. But it’s a road course. And we know he’s a damn good road racer. His results have arguably gotten better on road courses in the NextGen car. He finished sixth in this race a year ago but led 14 laps. He was also very competitive at Sonoma last year. There’s less pressure on him to win since his playoff spot is locked up. But that doesn’t take away from the fact this track plays to his strengths.
A.J. Allmendinger (#16 Chevrolet)
It does feel a little odd not having Dinger in the section above. But his car is more of a “middle of the field” piece of equipment in the Cup Series. He’s one of the best pure road racers overall though. He had an early issue in Sunday’s race that kept him a lap down. Without many cautions on Sunday, he couldn’t get that lap back. But even when he was a lap down and he was running with the leaders, the car was fast. He blew the field out of the water last week with 21 fastest laps. Unfortunately, they were for nothing because he finished 26th. He won this race back in 2014 and finished second last year. He’s one of a handful of drivers looking for a win this week to get into the playoffs.
Daniel Suarez (#99 Chevrolet)
By all accounts, Daniel Suarez had the best car last week at Indianapolis. If not ‘the best’ then he had a top three car for sure. He only led six laps, but he had nine fastest laps and a 120.8 driver rating. A slow pit stop early in the race cost him track position but he hung around the top of the field all afternoon. We’re led to believe that Suarez’s car had the same chassis from his win at Sonoma in 2022 and the same one Shane van Gisbergen had at Chicago last month. So it does feel like Trackhouse Racing is doing everything they can to get Suarez in the playoffs. Assuming they give him the same chassis for Watkins Glen, there will be plenty of speed.
The Sleepers
Chris Buescher (#17 Ford)
He’s hardly a sleeper having won two of the last three races coming into this weekend. Buescher started P17 and finished 11th last week. It was a good showing and could’ve been better if there were cautions. But everything I wrote about him a week ago is still true. He’s an underrated road ringer as was Michael McDowell heading into Indy. Buescher grabbed a top ten here last year and he’s finished 11th or better in nine straight road races. Don’t overthink it, he’s a great play once again this week.
Alex Bowman (#48 Chevrolet)
Bowman’s had a rough season. He actually had a great start with a new crew chief to kick the year off. But unfortunately, he sustained an injury and since coming back he’s had his struggles. He did allude to the possibility that he may have come back too early. But last week was refreshing. He grabbed his first top five since COTA back in March. He looks to carry that momentum into this weekend at Watkins Glen. Both Bowman and Chase Elliott are the two Hendrick drivers that need wins to make the playoffs. I am of the mindset that Elliott somehow gets the win this weekend. But Bowman is just as desperate and will be a sneaky play on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Austin Dillon (#3 Chevrolet)
Dillon isn’t widely recognized as a road course racer. But I’ll give him credit, he’s been trying to get better. He won’t win this weekend. But I like him as a driver to either gain PD or hit value by finishing well. His best chance to qualify for the playoffs is next weekend at Daytona. He grabbed top 20 finishes at Sonoma and Indy. Unfortunately, he wrecked at COTA and Chicago. But last year he was top ten at COTA and the Roval, while he finished 17th at Watkins Glen. There isn’t any win equity, but the equipment is still good and he can finish top 10.