The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Chicago for the second consecutive year. I’ll try not to jinx the weather this week. I got a little ahead of myself calling for no weather issues at Nashville, and that race certainly was not free of rain. But NASCAR celebrates Independence Day weekend on the streets of Chicago once again. Last year’s race was a bit of a mess. The Xfinity Series was made official despite not meeting the regular criteria for an “official” race. Even the Cup Series had its own problems with weather. This year it’s looking better. Shane Van Gisbergen shocked everyone last year winning this race in his Cup Series debut. Can he go back-to-back once again or is there another road ringer in the field up for the challenge? Here is this week’s NASCAR DFS Grant Park 165 preview!
For those of you who may be new, road course racing requires a different approach when building NASCAR DFS lineups. We only have 75 laps on tap. That means we’ll probably only have about 50 dominator points available on DraftKings. So we really just focus on drivers offering position differential, and drivers that can finish very well. If they collect dominator points, then great. But they need to finish well for those to matter.
This tweet from Dustin Long on Wednesday provides a great visual for the layout of the race. The choose zone, the area in which drivers select which row they want to restart in, has been moved from turn nine to just before turn six. The difficult nature of this track is the lack of runoff. That presents a problem because cars can pile up, like in this video. Overall, this week’s preview will focus on the road course specialists and we’ll adjust and update our driver pool once we know the starting order. For now, here are the top drivers for the Grant Park 165 preview…
Grant Park 165 Preview: The Top Plays
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
Kicking off the Grant Park 165 preview, we’re leaning into a popular play. It hasn’t been a smooth year for Reddick, but he does have a win under his belt. He’s not one of the handful of drivers sweating out his playoff hopes. Reddick may have finished 28th in this race a year ago, but the 101.5 driver rating does weigh heavily even with the bad finish baked in. He ran up front for a bit and was mostly in the top 10 for the majority of the day. Reddick is regarded as one of the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. He has three road course wins in the NextGen car. He’s coming off a top-five finish at Nashville last week, and in his post-race interview, it seemed like even finishing third wasn’t good enough.
Christopher Bell (#20 Toyota)
Bell has certainly turned a corner after a rough stretch in April where he finished outside the top 30 in three races. Now he did wreck out last week at Nashville. But he led 131 laps with 45 fastest laps. And that’s a week after he dominated at New Hampshire with 149 laps led and 43 fastest laps. In four of his last six races, he’s led at least 80 laps. Obviously, that number isn’t possible this week. But Bell is still a good road course driver so we’ll apply the same principle to a street course. He finished 18th last year in this race but led 37 laps with 15 fastest laps and he had a 113.5 driver rating. He has collected wins in the Cup Series on two road courses (Daytona and Charlotte) and he’s been running hot of late.
Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)
Elliott has definitely been getting back into his groove. He does have a win under his belt already, but the car has had speed of late. He’s also a strong road course driver even if he no longer holds the crown as the best road ringer in the Cup Series. Elliott started P26 in this race last year and he finished third. Did a little chaos help him out? Of course. He’s also coming off a top-five finish at Sonoma last month as well and he arguably had a top-10 car at COTA earlier in the year. It’s hard to get a feel for who should be the favorite for this race, but Elliott’s projecting well ahead of this weekend’s practice and qualifying sessions.
Grant Park 165 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Shane Van Gisbergen (#16 Chevrolet)
This may surprise some people, but I don’t think SVG is a lock as a top play. Sure, he did win this race last year. If you were one of the many people who had an outright ticket on him, congratulations! But he also drove for Trackhouse Racing last year. Trackhouse has shown they’re good enough to win a couple of races each year. Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain have both won on road courses in the NextGen era. SVG won’t be with Trackhouse this year. He’s running with Kaulig Racing. He does have a pair of wins this year in the Xfinity Series, both on road courses (Portland and Sonoma). But Kaulig’s Cup Series equipment has struggled this year. He may have a top-five up his sleeve, but we can’t assume he’ll have the same speed as last year.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
Byron had an okay run in this race last year. He started P22 and finished 13th for a rather ho-hum kind of day. Dating back to last year, we saw Byron win at Watkins Glen and then finish second at the Roval. He then won the first road course of the 2024 season (COTA) while leading 42 laps from the pole. The road course resume has certainly improved for Byron. The big concern with Byron lately has been the recent results. He hasn’t led a lap in five straight races. Moreover, in his last 10 races, he’s finished 15th or worse in seven races. One has to wonder if the team is experimenting with his setups ahead of the playoffs. I am hopeful he can show up on a road/street course this weekend and yield a strong result. But the recent results should give us just some pause.
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
I feel inclined to mention at least one Trackhouse driver for this race. After the success this organization had here last year, I’m surprised they aren’t entering a third car for this race. But here’s the deal. Teammate Daniel Suarez won earlier this year at Atlanta. He’s in the playoffs. Chastain is 66 points to the good for one of the five playoff spots available. Chastain likely makes the playoffs, but we also know Trackhouse nailed the setup on SVG’s car last year. What’s stopping them from using that chassis or setup for Chastain? The 1-car has looked great on the two road courses this year. Chastain led 10 laps and finished seventh at COTA this year and then was top five at Sonoma. Last week was a letdown at Nashville as it’s been one of his best tracks. But maybe he can surprise us all this weekend.
The Sleepers and Values
Joey Hand (#60 Ford)
Kicking off the value portion of the Grant Park 165 preview, we start with Joey Hand. Hand has only run seven NASCAR Cup Series races. With that said, even when he has raced in this series, it wasn’t with great equipment. And he also hasn’t appeared in a Cup Series race in two years. So why the optimism for Chicago? Hand is going to be run in the 60-car for RFK Racing. Now this is a similar entry and approach to what Trackhouse Racing did with Shane Van Gisbergen last year. Should we expect a similar result? No. But Hand does come from a road course background and RFK is trending in the right direction. He’s affordable this week and may end up as a play that comes in with minimal rostership.
Justin Haley (#51 Ford)
This probably isn’t too much of a surprise for the Grant Park 165 preview. Justin Haley was hilariously optimal last year. He started P37 and was the runner-up as an absolute punt play and he even led 23 laps. His pit strategy played a huge role in him gaining massive track position and there were a few laps he even held off SVG. This year we all thought he was taking an equipment downgrade. He moved from Kaulig Racing to Rick Ware Racing (likely for the RFK alliance) and he’s scored four top-15 finishes in the last two months. That’s great given how we’ve seen this team run previously. Haley has had his struggles on road courses this year. But there have been plenty of instances this year where he’s vastly exceeded value.
Corey LaJoie (#7 Chevrolet)
LaJoie is an interesting play. Basically, he’s going to make or break your lineup. Last week he had a legitimate chance to win the race at Nashville. He was re-starting in the top 10 during one of the many overtimes at Nashville. More importantly, he had more fuel than most of the drivers restarting around him. He was on the correct strategy. But he took on some damage during one of the restarts and it cost him a lot of track position. But overall, he’s had some strong runs on road courses the last couple of years. LaJoie has six finishes in the top 20 on road/street courses dating back to the start of the 2023 season. He finished 14th in this race a year ago and was 11th last month at Sonoma. Win equity? He probably has none. But he’s still worthy of consideration as a value option.