The NASCAR Cup Series is back and this is a tough race to read. We head to Pocono Raceway for 160 laps around the tricky triangle. Pocono is an odd duck of a track. It’s big at 2.5 miles but possesses only three turns. And we don’t have many comparable tracks outside of Michigan International Speedway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway. But the last few years we’ve only seen the Cup Series run the road course at Indy. The data set we have to look at is minimal. But we were fortunate to get practice and qualifying in on Saturday. At least we know what to look for. Track history certainly helps. And we need drivers that thrive on tracks that require more horsepower, excluding Daytona and Talladega. It’s a tough track to read especially with just 160 laps. Here are Sunday’s Great American Getaway 400 picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!
Great American Getaway 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Josh Berry (#4 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
- Zane Smith (#71 Spire Motorsports)
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
We shouldn’t be too surprised to see four Toyota’s in the top seven for the Great American Gateway 400 picks. Three of them occupied spots in this week’s Pocono Preview article. There’s a lot of win equity within the top four. It’s tempting to put at least one of them in each lineup. The Toyota’s will certainly be popular for this race, and rightfully so. Josh Berry is an interesting tournament play. I don’t know if I’m bold enough to play Berry. But he did have some great runs here with Jr. Motorsports in the Xfinity Series and got extra laps in Saturday’s race with AM Racing. Tyler Reddick joins the JGR drivers as a popular Toyota option. He was mentioned in the preview article and he’s been the runner-up in the last two Cup Series races at Pocono.
Which Value-Priced Great American Getaway 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Bubba Wallace – $7,600; Starting P29
- Noah Gragson – $7,300; Starting P25
- Chase Briscoe – $7,200; Starting P28
- Todd Gilliland – $6,800; Starting P33
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,500; Starting P31
- Justin Haley – $6,200; Starting P34
- Ryan Preece – $6,100; Starting P36
- John Hunter Nemecheck – $5,700; Starting P32
FanDuel
- Bubba Wallace- $8,200; Starting P29
- Kyle Busch – $7,800; Starting P24
- Noah Gragson – $7,500; Starting P25
- Chase Briscoe – $6,800; Starting P28
- Todd Gilliland – $5,800; Starting P33
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $5,200; Starting P31
- Ryan Preece – $5,000; Starting P36
- Justin Haley – $4,200; Starting P34
- John Hunter Nemechek – $4,000; Starting P32
We don’t differentiate too much between DraftKings and FanDuel. Kyle Busch is a far better value on FanDuel than DraftKings. However, I don’t feel comfortable playing him on either site. A surprise absence to this list might be Erik Jones. Jones appeared in this week’s preview article based on the recent track history. But he just doesn’t offer the PD that most of these drivers do. Bubba Wallace is going to be popular. Now we must ask ourselves, is chalk Bubba ever a good thing? Get exposure, but don’t go too overboard. Todd Gilliland and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. might be my favorite value options. Gilliland has flashed plenty of top-20 equity and we finally can squeeze PD out of him. Regarding Stenhouse, Nick Giffen of Action Network wrote up a great Top 20 Prop Bet piece on him earlier in the week.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Kyle Larson – Starting P12
- Christopher Bell – Starting P13
- Brad Keselowski – Starting P14
- Chris Buescher – Starting P18
- Ross Chastain – Starting P19
I’ll be brief with this section of the Great American Getaway 400 picks. And I’ll be honest. None of these are truly offering a ton of position differential. I listed Larson and Bell simply because it’s surprising whenever they qualify outside the top 10. Even Keselowski, Buescher, and Chastain offer some position differential. All three have top 10 equity, but I might just prefer Keselowski and Chastain. I could see Buescher as a driver I potentially go underweight on.
Great American Getaway 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Denny Hamlin – $11,000; Starting P4
- Kyle Larson – $10,800; Starting P12
- Ross Chastain – $8,400; Starting P19
- Todd Gilliland – $6,800; Starting P33
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,500; Starting P31
- Ryan Preece – $6,100; Starting P36
I’m lukewarm on this lineup if I’m being honest. It almost takes an approach I usually take with some MMA DFS tournament lineups. Three pricey options and three value plays. I do believe Gilliland, Stenhouse, and Preece have top 20 upside. This is probably a fine cash game lineup, but it is easy to duplicate. We led off the preview article with both Hamlin and Larson. We know they have win equity. Chastain should at least show up with a top 10 car. Dominator points don’t really matter as much at Pocono because there are 160 laps. It’s obviously more than a road course. But much less than what we get for tracks like Charlotte, Vegas, Kansas, or Texas. So I’ll reiterate, this might be better for cash games given the popularity of most of these drivers. And it may be a “min cash” at best option for tournaments.
FanDuel
- Kyle Larson – $13,500; Starting P12
- Martin Truex Jr. – $12,000; Starting P3
- Ross Chastain – $8,500; Starting P19
- Bubba Wallace – $8,200; Starting P29
- Kyle Busch – $7,800; Starting P24
I lean into a different approach with this FanDuel lineup. I’m only doing four FanDuel lineups but I’ll make an exception for just this one and eat the Bubba Wallace chalk. And I feel we get win equity and some of the laps led with Larson and Truex. Lastly, we round it out with Chastain and Kyle Busch. I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’ll give Busch one last shot. This is a different track from the others we’ve run this year. So, I do want to give him another shot in case the organization has nailed the setup or strategy. At the end of the day, the dominator points amount to just 16 total points on FanDuel. We do have five drivers that should either score well with win equity, or they should move up and score well with position differential.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
With two races left before the television break for the Olympics, don’t feel obligated to play your usual bankroll. Pocono is a fuel mileage race. We’ve seen the strategy already come into play in the Truck and Xfinity Series races. And we can’t predict the drivers that land on the right fuel strategy prior to the race going green. Additionally, we find ourselves trying to weigh whether the right play is to target the dominator points or the position differential. The best read may be to use this race to accumulate data ahead of next week’s race in Indianapolis. But the goal remains the same no matter how much you decide to play. Best of luck with this week’s Great American Getaway 400 picks!